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The Forum > General Discussion > Labor's $60bn energy black hole.

Labor's $60bn energy black hole.

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"A $60 billion black hole has torn through the Albanese Government’s 2030 renewable energy plan exposing a Labor lie and leaving everyday Australians to pay the bill.

A leading energy economist has revealed that more than $60 billion of mega energy projects, which Labor is seeking to build by 2030, are unaccounted for in Labor’s logic despite its significant impact on the energy prices paid by households.

The concerns arise through the GenCost study which evaluates the levelised cost of electricity for different energy generating technologies and provides the central justification for Labor’s radical energy experiment.

Shadow Minister for Climate Change and Energy Ted O’Brien said Labor’s Climate Change and Energy Minister had deliberately misrepresented the study to blind Australians of the true cost of Labor’s plan.

“Chris Bowen has buried a $60 billion black hole in Labor’s radical energy experiment, and it will be everyday Australian households and businesses that pay the price,” Mr O’Brien said.

“It’s high time that Labor came clean with the Australian people and explained the true cost of its radical energy experiment.”

“Australians are paying some of the highest energy bills in the world despite false promises from Labor that it would cut household power bills by $275.”

The whopping $60 billion price tag was calculated by experienced economist, David Carland in a formal submission to the CSIRO and includes projects such as Snowy 2.0, Marinus Link, VNI West and the Battery of the Nation.

The total figure is likely to be far larger with many more costs associated with household energy storage and distribution costs unknown.

“How deep does this black hole go?” Mr O’Brien asks Labor’s Climate Change and Energy Minister.

“Labor’s energy pathway does not account for one cent of the enormous network integration costs and there are billions more to be uncovered.”
Posted by shadowminister, Wednesday, 30 August 2023 8:19:49 AM
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WTF?

So shadowminister provides us with a cut-and-past directly from the Liberal Party website.

He does not include the quote "“We need to replace Labor’s dangerous ideology with a balanced ‘All-of the Above’ approach that allows for a mix of different technologies, including renewables.”

Renewables are in the mix and even the "anti-everything" Liberal Party agrees.

The issue is not IF it will be done but HOW.
Posted by WTF? - Not Again, Wednesday, 30 August 2023 9:24:08 AM
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Fewer than a third of voters wanted to trust Labor with their money, or anything else. But, thanks to our ridiculous voting system, which has the Greens aiding and abetting Albanese's crimes, down, down, down we go.
Posted by ttbn, Wednesday, 30 August 2023 11:06:51 AM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

What a shame that new ideas instead of being welcome
for the opportunities they open up for the
improvement of the human lot are seen as threats to those
who've become comfortable in their ideologies.

Issues which require radical solutions are seen as
harming economic and vested interests. Support of the status
quo is beginning to wear thin.

The Liberal Party claims are misleading.

We have a series of continuing trends that could reduce
the capital cost.

We have technological improvements, reductions in turbine
efficiency We have a growth in generation from roof top
solar. Advances are happening.

More than 75% of our fossil-fuel power plants are past
their use-by date and will have to be replaced anyway.
This re-investment will be reflected in the price
charged for electricity.

Wind power will be the most cost effective replacement
as it is now the cheapest new build power source.

A high renewable energy target will increase competition
in the energy sector with the effect of putting downward
pressure on electricity prices.

Things are changing - and the old political tactics
of continuous criticism and nay saying will not garner
votes. Voters are better educated and no longer swallow
the old party-lines. They're becoming more aware and
thinking for themselves.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 30 August 2023 11:34:26 AM
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Foxy,

Labor legislated a target of 45% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030. Energy professionals estimate that in order to meet this deadline Labor needs to spend nearly an additional $10bn a year to put in the renewables and the infrastructure to support them.

No new technology is going to suddenly arrive in the next 5 years. This is yet another case of Labor promising something that they have no intention of delivering.
Posted by shadowminister, Wednesday, 30 August 2023 12:33:54 PM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

I won't insult your intelligence
that you actually believe what you're posting.
Time will prove that Labor is on the right track.
And that the Liberals have never had any energy policies
of any substance. When they do - then you'll be on
better ground to critique Labor. For now - best not
to comment or quote from their websites.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 30 August 2023 1:18:40 PM
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Foxy,

You have your opinions, I have my facts. Many energy professionals have claimed that Labor's 45% target by 2030 would require the installation rate of renewables to be increased by about 500%.

Labor's target was virtue signalling and never realistic. Another Labor lie.
Posted by shadowminister, Thursday, 31 August 2023 5:43:12 AM
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Foxy,

The AEMO is not political

"Australia faces an increased risk of blackouts in Victoria and South Australia this summer with delays in delivering new generation and transmission sparking an urgent call from the market operator to plug the supply shortage or face a decade where power supplies cannot be guaranteed.

The stark forecast underscores growing alarm within the Australian Energy Market Operator and piles new pressure on the Albanese government to deliver its ambitious pledge to more than double the level of renewable energy in the system to 82 per cent by 2030 that it said would slash $275 a year from household power bills within years.
AEMO has incrementally elevated its warnings about the pace of building new renewable energy to replace fossil fuels within its annual report known as the Energy Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) – which is a blueprint that shapes government policy.

But the 2023 report warns the country’s National Electricity Market is precariously placed and “imminent and urgent” investment must be delivered to safeguard the system.
Daniel Westerman, chief executive of AEMO, said the situation is increasingly urgent and warnings must be heeded.

“The story for Australia is becoming more and more clear, but also more and more urgent,” Mr Westerman told The Australian."
Posted by shadowminister, Thursday, 31 August 2023 7:18:52 AM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

The Australian Financial Review's recent report tells
us that "the consensus among energy experts is that
Australia's very challenging clean energy transition may
be impossible to reach Labor's ambitious 43% emission
reduction and 82% renewable energy targets by 2030."

The report says that the government needs to set aside
the potential political embarrassment and order a robust
assessment of where the energy transition is at.

That is something that I am sure the government will do.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 31 August 2023 9:54:35 AM
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Foxy,

Thanks for admitting that I was right.

However, a robust assessment by Labor is unlikely as they have done diddley squat in spite of this being common knowledge for a while.
Posted by shadowminister, Thursday, 31 August 2023 11:54:45 AM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

Not true.

I think our current Prime Minister by setting the
example of being willing to consult experts and
ask for a variety of opinions on issues from all
sides - shows that he will take the necessary
steps.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 31 August 2023 1:06:30 PM
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Foxy,

The time to consult experts is before you legislate a half-arsed and impossible policy and target. The expert advice has been out there for more than a year and the time for inaction has long passed.
Posted by shadowminister, Thursday, 31 August 2023 2:53:22 PM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

I'm finding your negativity a bit hard to take.

The current government has been anything but inactive.
Having the Bill passed in the House of Reps only 75
days after the election showed the support the
government had.

It brought together business, industry, unions, farmers,
community and conservative groups all of whom asked
Parliament to do something about emissions.

For close to a decade Australia has stumbled from
one policy to another. This time steps were going to be taken
and changes were going to be made. However, the government
has other priorities at the moment and it has a lot on its
plate.

We can see currently the huge difference between the
old Australia versus the future Australia. A good
example is the reactions to the Voice referendum of the
no campaigners who represent the old Australia.

The cumulative wealth and power of the rusted on no voters,
their prominence in media ownership and on corporate boards,
their conservatism and their unwillingness to commit to social
change should be juxtaposed with the growing, vibrant,
new nation. One that believes in social change and inclusion.

One in which Liberals such as Julie Bishop and Malcolm
Turnbull to name just a few, fully support. While dinosaurs
like John Howard, Tony Abbott, Peter Dutton and co. do not.

I can see in which group you place yourself.

History will not be kind to you and your mob.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 31 August 2023 3:52:47 PM
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Foxy,

I'm tired of your unrelenting negativity towards Dutton and your frequent claims of his bad behaviour which you clearly cannot support. Your uncritical and sycophantic support of the racist "voice" and Labor's dreadful energy policies puts in doubt your ability for critical reasoning.

The cost and dangers to the power network of closing down dispatchable coal and gas power supplies and replacing them with unreliable renewable supplies have been known for decades yet Labor races to the cliff with lies about reducing energy costs all while these costs are rapidly increasing and blackouts are becoming more and more likely.

For some positivity, Labor never disappoints me, I expect from Labor incompetence, substance-free virtue signalling, corruption and lies and they deliver in spades.
Posted by shadowminister, Friday, 1 September 2023 6:49:32 AM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

Labor's record speaks for itself. As does that
of the Liberals. Especially recently.

It's available in history books and on the web.

You can continue to rationalise your support of
the lies currently being spouted. You think like so many
misguided people that lies are going to win
elections. You've obviously take it to heart as
has the Party you support and its unfortunate
current leader.

The Australian voters just may surprise you.
They certainly did at the last election.

I shall leave you to your delusions.
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 1 September 2023 10:07:02 AM
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When the Snowy 2.0 scheme was announced with the appropriate hoopla, it was going to cost $2Billion and be operational by 2021.

It was announced yesterday that the revised estimates are $13 billion (!!) and a completion date of 2029. (anyone who believes either of those will be achieved should contact me about this bridge I have for sale).

Oh and it'll cost an additional $5billion to hook it up to the grid which somehow isn't considered part of the cost of the project. The reason for leaving it out of the official costings ought to be obvious.

And in an act of accounting gymnastics worthy of a gold medal, the government advises that, even though the costs went from $2 to $18 billion, its somehow still cost effective.

Meanwhile the Hunter Power Project at Kurri Kurri, (gas-fired power station) has increased in costs from $600million to $950 million, a 60% increase, which, compared to Snowy 2.0, is a mere rounding error.

All of these additional costs have to be, eventually, picked up by the electricity consumers. Explain to me again how costs are going to decrease!!

The ALP's promise of a decline in prices is already unachievable. One of two things will happen:

1. They'll wait for some unusual event (fire, flood, plague of locusts) as an excuse and withdraw the promise

2. They'll give massive subsidies to the producers and/or the consumers to artificially reduce costs and hope that the clueless will somehow buy that this is indeed a cost reduction.
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 1 September 2023 4:40:21 PM
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This post is a great example of someone who needs to
acquire broader skills and let go of their
inflexible ideologies.
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 1 September 2023 4:56:10 PM
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Where is Max Green spouting all his low cost renewable energy storage nonsense now? And I shudder to think of the cost overruns, under-performance and environmental harm resulting from the redoubtable Andy B's seawater charged closed loop pumped hydro. Anyone who has spent a little time comparing prospectuses with actual costs would not find this renewable energy fiasco at all surprising.

Cheap energy is the key to economic prosperity. The renewable energy cult will make Australia destitute.
Posted by Fester, Friday, 1 September 2023 10:03:19 PM
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Foxy,

You're right Labor's dismal record does speak for itself. Juliar achieved nothing she promised and Albozo looks like following suit.

Apparently, the AEMO and most energy professionals share my delusion.
Posted by shadowminister, Saturday, 2 September 2023 4:48:06 AM
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someone who needs to
acquire broader skills and let go of their
inflexible ideologies.
Foxy,
If you were to remove the rose-coloured blinkers that restrict your views you'd find that it is in fact you who has to seriously consider to do a review of your mentality !
Posted by Indyvidual, Saturday, 2 September 2023 6:57:54 AM
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We should note that this isn't a Lib/Lab issue. After all, Snowy 2.0 was originally championed by Turnbull and carried forth by his successor.` The Libs also happily bought into the whole net zero moronocity, only demurring over the timing and methods.

The Labs were of course always on board and were never going to be anything but climate warriors. Their problem is that ideology trumps pragmatism and they will continue to push these pipes dreams beyond reason. But they do believe it. They made the $275 promise sincerely believing that so-called clean energy would deliver economic savings and they'll need to be smacked around the head by reality quite a few more times before giving up that notion.

So the problem isn't party political. It's an issue of the ruling class not particularly caring about those they rule. At some point the folly of this whole project will become so obvious or so painful for the electorate that one or other party will break ranks. Alternatively a new group will arise and gain support for policies like all-of-the-above energy programmes and low immigration levels. Give it 5 years.
Posted by mhaze, Saturday, 2 September 2023 8:20:35 AM
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I would like to see politicians support the policies
that are good for the country and its people no matter
who suggests them. I wish that good ideas were the main
consideration - not party loyalty.

But I feel that any change in this direction is going
to take time.

I was raised as a Liberal voter. I came from a family
of conservatives. It was only later in life that I began
to question things - and now it's actions and policies
that matter to me.

No political party is perfect - they all have made and
continue to make mistakes. However, to me, especially
judging by the recent behaviour - Labor represents the
party with a heart. The Liberal Party - the party with
a cash register.
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 2 September 2023 9:40:29 AM
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Foxy,

Labor uses its heart, Liberals use their brains.

No one opposes all of Labor's policies only the really stupid ones that will hurt the country for decades such as the voice /veto and the renewables target.
Posted by shadowminister, Monday, 4 September 2023 5:30:14 AM
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To All but to Foxy in particular.
The target Bowen thinks is achievable is 22,000 solar panels a day
every day for eight years.
Also I think it was 40 wind turbines a month for eight years.
As I pointed out here previously no one in Canberra picked up a hand
calculator to work out how many panels can be loaded into a semi
trailer, and how many trucks would be needed to transport them to the
various sites every day and then double the number for the return
journey. No one stopped to think how many panels could be mounted
and then connected up and tested EVERY DAY ! How many men required.
They will have to be fed and housed. Then given days off.
Who will mount the panels on their days off, or will they just go
into the backlog !
Then we get to the mounting frames !
They have to be manufactured in a factory somewhere then sent to be
galvanised. Then picked up by another set of trucks, 10 frames to a
semi ? If five panels to a frame that is 2,200 truck trips a day
plus return 4,400 truck trips a day according to my calculator.
Then each frame has to me concreted into the ground, otherwise they
will take off in a strong wind. Done EVERY DAY for eight years.
Does anyone wonder why I say the bureaucrats and pollies in Canberra
are not just STUPID but really STUPID !
You pick up your calculator use your estimates and see what hope
the government has of getting it all done in time, let alone the money !

I have run installation jobs in the country for a very small team just
5 people including myself and it can be a nightmare.
It is impossible and the more delays that occur the worse it gets.
As each unacheived number has to be added to the uninstalled total.
Posted by Bezza, Tuesday, 5 September 2023 2:17:58 PM
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More; If a man can mount five panels an hour that is 40 panels a shift.
Three shifts a day for seven days means 10,920 per shift per man a year.
to install 22000 x 365 x 8yrs =64,240,000 panels.
64240000/10920/8 = 736 men every day for 8 years per shift.
Allowing for weekend shifts 736 men x 4 shift teams = 2944 men divided amongst all sites.
On each site a meal cabin must be installed and staffed to provide meals.
Buses and drivers to take the workers to and from the nearest town.
All that does not take into account annual holidays, public holidays etc.
Any day work is stopped for such as weather etc the lost panel numbers
have to be added to the total 22,000 a day.

I suspect that this program will get nowhere near its promised plan.
Posted by Bezza, Wednesday, 6 September 2023 5:21:34 PM
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I believe that Australia is now in a per capita recession. A metric created by Labor in opposition can now be applied to them.

Well done Albozo!
Posted by shadowminister, Thursday, 7 September 2023 3:54:05 AM
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A lot of argument about transmission lines across farms.
They say it is too expensive to go underground.
Surely not more expensive than running the HV cables under Bass Strait ?
Cables are run al over the world undersea, can't be more expensive under land.
Posted by Bezza, Thursday, 7 September 2023 10:56:27 PM
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