That's true mhaze, YOU'RE RIGHT AGAIN, I was going to suggest an early election late 2024, winter is definitely out, and no later than early December. However early elections can generate a degree of voter backlash towards the government, "why we haven' this bloody early election, I'm voting for the Doddle Dot Party, they don't want election at all!". If the polls are good then why care at all, then if the polls are bad, do a Morrison and stall for time, and hope for an improvement. If you were Albo, you'd be pretty confident of winning a second term, no matter when you call the election.

Hi mhaze,

I don't think Albo's political career is riding on the Voice referendum, defeat in October 23 would not carry over to late 24 or early 25. There would be minimal political damage for Labor. As I read it there will be a strong "Yes" vote in NSW and Vic, a "No" in Qld, maybe Tas, if "No" in one other state then its lost, even though NSW and Vic will give it an overall majority "Yes". I think Dutton has more skin in the game, a resounding "Yes" would destroy him politically, as the Liberals are divided on this, both state and federally, whilst Labor is solid all round.

Agreed. I wasn't suggesting that the outcome of the referendum would influence the outcome of the next election, although it would do wonders for Dutton's status.

I was just suggesting that a lost referendum would alter whatever timeline Albanese etc have in mind as regards the next election.

Only governments that are truly bad (eg Whitlam) suffer defeat at their next outing. Generally speaking a government will be given at least 2 and usually 3 terms before the "its time" factor comes into play. Even Whitlam won his 'mid-term' election.

So, unless things go terribly wrong in the next year or so, the ALP are a shoe in. Equally, the Libs have done precisely nothing to indicate that they deserve another go just yet.

Again I find I am AGREEING with you mhaze, is this some kind of sickness, is there a cure, ha, ha just joking. The old saying "Governments lose elections, Oppositions don't win them" holds mostly true. Voters know Albanese and Labor, they don't know Dutton and the Coalition. Put to voters; Who is the Prime Minister? Albanese. Who is the Opposition leader? Silence. In politics that's a good start. Who are you going to vote for next time? {Other than the rusted on's and minatory voters} Labor. Why? I think they are doing a good job. (No other reason). When I said Governments lose elections..." that is true, but at some stage the Opposition (leader) has to generate some little traction with the voters to guarantee a victory, that usually comes during the campaign proper. At the moment Albo has it all, Dutton has nothing. BTW If the referendum goes down, the people are not going to put it down to Dutton, as the guy who saved us, well not likely. But if it gets up the knives within, will be out for poor old Pete. One thing the Liberals hate is a loser, Labor tend to be a bit more forgiving in that regard, maybe its because they have in the past mostly been losers, so its expected.

Peter Dutton stands on a Liberal principle of equality for all - do not divide by race. Albanese wants to leave a political legacy and divest sovereignty to an unelected aboriginal elite and remove the sovereignty of the crown. He is two faced, pretending to swear allegiance to the crown but intending to adopt "The Closing of The Gap", which transfers sovereignty to the tribes.

Jose'

Is that a new Liberal Party principle, that "equality for all" you refer to? For years in government the 'Noalition' marginalised and ostracised Aboriginal people, viewing them as inferior, and not worth a cracker. I suppose the leopard can always change his spots, or can he.