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The Forum > Article Comments > Starving for gas > Comments

Starving for gas : Comments

By Julian Cribb, published 27/8/2009

Australians will wake up to find that, besides selling a heap of gas, we have also sold our primary means of food production.

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When the 1970's oil shock first hit I am sure I was told that by the 1990's we would be out of oil and, oh yes, no Amazon rain forest. Now its going to be ten years away that we are all going to die and we all have to be very very afraid and rely on the scientists?
Mmmmmm I think not, surely prof if supply got a bit tight then we can tell the Chinese that the gas has run out and none is left for them. There you go that didn't take a classical education did it?
Posted by JBowyer, Thursday, 27 August 2009 9:25:30 AM
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What you say is correct, and I cannot believe that our politicians are not aware of that. Many scientists tell us that with the end of oil and gas about 5 of us 7 billion humans will have to go. The problem is to decide who has to leave and who can stay.
About the gas deal - if Australia would not sell it to China, wouldn't they come and get it anyway once they need it desparately in 10 years or so? Or would one billion hungry people look patiently over the water and watch Australia enjoy the good life?
Posted by renysol, Thursday, 27 August 2009 9:57:24 AM
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Our politicians are cock-a-hoop about selling off the natural gas we will need ourselves. They forget that the UK was awash with North Sea gas in the 1980s now they have to import it from places like Russia who are prepared to use it for blackmail. Ammonia derived fertiliser feeds a larger population than simple manure or compost; imagine trying to cover the WA wheatbelt with compost. However it decays to nitrous oxide with 300 times the GHG potential of CO2. The world's largest ammonia plant is at Burrup WA who I gather export a lot of urea and other ammonia derived products to India. Could India support 1.2 bn people without such chemicals?

Another key home use for natural gas will be CNG fuel initially as a diesel replacement in trucks and buses then perhaps cars. This will happen within a few short years (before 2015) as Australian and world crude oil production goes into steep decline. Even the 20% renewable energy target in the absence of the ETS implies increased gas use. Combined cycle gas generators are needed to make up lulls in electrical output from wind farms and solar panels. Some claim wind and solar would be unworkable without gas fired backup. If local gas is priced at world parity prices renewable energy will get even more expensive.

Australia should announce a priority system with natural gas so that domestic ammonia plant, CNG vehicle fuel and combined cycle electricity get preference over LNG export. When the gas is all but gone as per UK then we'll need another plan to replace it.
Posted by Taswegian, Thursday, 27 August 2009 10:03:21 AM
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With only about 400 years worth of gas available to Australia from proven reserves plus an unknown amount from coal seams it is certainly time to start stocking up on canned food!
Posted by Nigel from Jerrabomberra, Thursday, 27 August 2009 11:02:58 AM
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Fortunately the Haber-Bosch process can also be run using coal. Of greater concern (in terms of how soon we may run short) is phosphate fertilizers. Prices spiked at 700% over the long term average last year and it appears we are well past peak production of those. We do need our natural gas but more for a transition fuel while we retool for a zero growth (i.e. sustainable) economy. However, the infrastructure changes required and the short time frame for loss of oil (much lower availability to Australia within a decade) mean that we have left this a little late and will not be able to avoid serious disruption. For those who are always looking for technological solutions to things, read this first:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6082464/World-faces-hi-tech-crunch-as-China-eyes-ban-on-rare-metal-exports.html
Posted by michael_in_adelaide, Thursday, 27 August 2009 11:18:42 AM
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@Nigel the Energy Users Association has an alternative estimate of Australia's natural and coal seam gas reserves lasting 65 years. Link lost sorry.
@michael the world's largest rare earth deposit is at Mt Weld WA. We just don't have any refining here.
Posted by Taswegian, Thursday, 27 August 2009 11:54:10 AM
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