When the 1970's oil shock first hit I am sure I was told that by the 1990's we would be out of oil and, oh yes, no Amazon rain forest. Now its going to be ten years away that we are all going to die and we all have to be very very afraid and rely on the scientists?
Mmmmmm I think not, surely prof if supply got a bit tight then we can tell the Chinese that the gas has run out and none is left for them. There you go that didn't take a classical education did it?

What you say is correct, and I cannot believe that our politicians are not aware of that. Many scientists tell us that with the end of oil and gas about 5 of us 7 billion humans will have to go. The problem is to decide who has to leave and who can stay.
About the gas deal - if Australia would not sell it to China, wouldn't they come and get it anyway once they need it desparately in 10 years or so? Or would one billion hungry people look patiently over the water and watch Australia enjoy the good life?

Our politicians are cock-a-hoop about selling off the natural gas we will need ourselves. They forget that the UK was awash with North Sea gas in the 1980s now they have to import it from places like Russia who are prepared to use it for blackmail. Ammonia derived fertiliser feeds a larger population than simple manure or compost; imagine trying to cover the WA wheatbelt with compost. However it decays to nitrous oxide with 300 times the GHG potential of CO2. The world's largest ammonia plant is at Burrup WA who I gather export a lot of urea and other ammonia derived products to India. Could India support 1.2 bn people without such chemicals?

Another key home use for natural gas will be CNG fuel initially as a diesel replacement in trucks and buses then perhaps cars. This will happen within a few short years (before 2015) as Australian and world crude oil production goes into steep decline. Even the 20% renewable energy target in the absence of the ETS implies increased gas use. Combined cycle gas generators are needed to make up lulls in electrical output from wind farms and solar panels. Some claim wind and solar would be unworkable without gas fired backup. If local gas is priced at world parity prices renewable energy will get even more expensive.

Australia should announce a priority system with natural gas so that domestic ammonia plant, CNG vehicle fuel and combined cycle electricity get preference over LNG export. When the gas is all but gone as per UK then we'll need another plan to replace it.

With only about 400 years worth of gas available to Australia from proven reserves plus an unknown amount from coal seams it is certainly time to start stocking up on canned food!

Fortunately the Haber-Bosch process can also be run using coal. Of greater concern (in terms of how soon we may run short) is phosphate fertilizers. Prices spiked at 700% over the long term average last year and it appears we are well past peak production of those. We do need our natural gas but more for a transition fuel while we retool for a zero growth (i.e. sustainable) economy. However, the infrastructure changes required and the short time frame for loss of oil (much lower availability to Australia within a decade) mean that we have left this a little late and will not be able to avoid serious disruption. For those who are always looking for technological solutions to things, read this first:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6082464/World-faces-hi-tech-crunch-as-China-eyes-ban-on-rare-metal-exports.html

@Nigel the Energy Users Association has an alternative estimate of Australia's natural and coal seam gas reserves lasting 65 years. Link lost sorry.
@michael the world's largest rare earth deposit is at Mt Weld WA. We just don't have any refining here.

JBowyer, we were actually being told that it was the late 70s and 80s when we would run out of ... just about everything.

With only about 400 years worth of gas available to Australia from proven reserves plus an unknown amount from coal seams it is certainly time to start stocking up on canned food!(Nigel from --)

Maybe 400 years for a population of 21 million but as another comment states when other nations are running short they may come and take what is here. All fossil fuel are finite and are too valuable as chemical feedstock and as reducing agents for the production of "essential" metals to be wasted.
If anyone doubts that fuels are becoming in short supply they should look at the USA, UK and Norwegian oil and gas fields. USA fields passed peak crude production about 1972, the UK and Norway in the late nineties.
Where is fossil fuels being accumulated by nature at anywhere near the rate the human race is consuming known reserves?

Taswegian, I couldn't find the Energy Users Association estimates but the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association used 250+ years (using a very conservative analysis) earlier in 2009 and the results were included in a televised address to the National Press Club. The slides used to support that presentation are at the link below.

http://www.appea.com.au/content/pdfs_docs_xls/NewsMedia/Speeches/npc_chart_presentation.pdf

NSW doesn't even rate a mention and yet the coal reserves, many of which harbour methane, are huge. The technology for releasing gas from underground coal deposits is proven and operates in Australia and the US and many other countries right now.

The gas is used not for its calorific value, but for its hydrogen content. Most of the energy is wasted and vast quantities of CO2 are emitted.

There are many other sources of hydrogen, but they are more expensive.

As the price of gas increases with climate change legislation, other means of nitrogen fixing need to be explored.

I find it funny that the forces behind this latest concern about selling gas to China, are infact iron ore producers selling iron ore to China. They have a fear that they will make less profit if they have to pay more for gas.

A few points to allay panic:

Crop rotation
Is an almost outdated farming method of naturally fixing nitrogen in the soil.

Economise beef production.
The modern feed lot method of beef production is hugely wasteful. By-pass animal feed lots to feed humans directly with grain. Eat less beef generally.

Improve the use of natural fertilisers.
Encourage more local intensive farming methods mixed with alternative lifestyle aspirations.

Develop engineering systems to produce more economical extraction of nitrogen from the air.

Abandon cropping for ethanol production immediately.

Crop rotation was very effective when a large percentage of the population lived on the land, but becomes much less effective when the nutrients are all carted off to the big cities. The author also fails to be aware that there are other essential elements such as phosphorus and potassium. Without these, plant growth is poor, even with the addition of large amounts of nitrogen. The world's supply of these raw materials for the production of food will one day run out and so the population will starve. It won't be in our lifetime, but it will surely happen and the present rate of population growth, it may be sooner, rather than later. Those remaining will discover the true meaning of the term "Might is right."

David

The reality is that beggars cannot be choosers and given Australia's
monthly current account deficit, we need to pay our bills somehow.

Mining and farming are basically what we have to do it with, few
other Australian industries are globally competitive.

BTW we are not about to run out of gas. We've only just realised
how much we have, both on the North West shelf and CSG reserves.

I remind everyone that in the 60s, it was thought that Australia
hardly had any iron ore, until Hancock discovered whole mountain
chains made of the stuff.

China's chief food problem won't be fertiliser. It is currently twofold. The reducing area of land available for farming and the increasing depth's required to reach underground water. Surface water is far to poluted and scare in farming areas already.

They'll run out of water before they run out of fertiliser.

I don't think we need worry two much about the costs of or depletion of fossil fuels. With the huge developments in generating solar power and current battery technology in the past year or so within five years every truck, bus, train, ship, car, small boat, house, office block, shop and factory will produce and store sufficient or excessive power cheaply enough for no one to need bother with fossil fuels of anytype, tough for all those involved in their production but they'll adapt. Whatever happened to the steam engine industry and it's ancillaries?

Food propduction techniques will evolve quickly enough to avert catastrophy.

Why don't the merchants of fear realise the damage they are doing to our children and that everyone else realise there is no such thing as safety and security.
The universe could swat us all like a fly in an instant and all the fake social or physical edifices we've built are absolutely useless and pointless.

Thanks for some perceptive comments, guys.

Couple of points. Yes, the world actually passed 'peak phosphorus' in 1988 and this is, potentially, a far more serious problem even than nitrogen. I just didn't want to scare anyone.

For those who imagine our resources are ample, 400 years supply of a given resource for Australia is only 7 years supply for China or India. We cannot comfort ourselves by clinging to a view that we are not connected to the rest of the world.

Third, yes, there are lots of ways we can make nitrogen fertilisers or recycle nutrients. They are just far more expensive, inefficient or less agriculturally productive than the gas route. So by becoming aware of the potential for gas to run out, we start to work on making them more efficient. I wrote the article because, while one hears endless debate about peak oil, one almost never hears about peak gas, which is just as worthy of being treated seriously by thoughtful people.

Julian, the problem is that the thoughtful people are not numbered amongst governments or their advisers. Their thoughts are only aimed at winning the next election.

David

Modern farmers can and should know precisely how much of their chemical resource they lose, every time they send product off the property.
A dairy farmer for instance, buys fertiliser in, has his cattle convert the fertiliser into milk, and lives on the price difference.
We as a nation desperately need to adopt the same philosophy. Currently, almost everything we produce either goes overseas, or in the sea.
About the only biomass we don't dump in the ocean are our own rotting corpses, which we either burn, or lock up in cemeteries, which grow nothing more than a pretty patch of grass.

Finally, stuff it all:

Wherever humans gather, there awaits tragedy.

Hungry or not, as deaths precursor, the wise will use the time allotted on earth to learn the true meaning of peace.

Shadow Minister: "The gas is used not for its calorific value, but for its hydrogen content."

Interesting - thanks. You googled this? I bet you did. A link to what you found would have been nice.

JulianC,

For my part, I think we are probably better off with the gas out of the ground. A country of 21M hoarding something that a country of 1.3B needs to prevent its citizens for dying off doesn't seem politically wise, particularly as there are alternatives we can make do with because of our small population. At least we will be able to make do provided we keep our population small.

JulianC: "one almost never hears about peak gas, which is just as worthy of being treated seriously"

I suspect most people associate "peak oil" with "peak hydrocarbon's", and that includes gas. They are used to LPG prices tracking oil prices fairly closely. What you say here will come as no surprise.

JulianC: "the world actually passed 'peak phosphorus' in 1988"

There are other interpretations of those figures which indicate we haven't hit the peak just yet: http://phosphorusfutures.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=16&Itemid=30 The wild gyrations in the past 2 decades look to me like that were caused by Nauru mismanaging its phosphorus reserves, selling them far too cheaply.

It will however be a huge problem in the later half of this decade. My personal plan is to die of old age before it bites.

Agree with you Julian Cribb.
Taswegian, the government does not accept that oil depletion and indeed
energy depletion is a real problem.

Peak gas world wide is not all that further away.
It has been pointed out that rate of depletion of gas when it starts is
very much faster than that of oil.
Frankly I think they are mad allowing such long term contracts got gas.
Western Miming I think it was gave a 25 yr contract to China a few
years back at a fraction of the current price.

Gas demand is going to rise dramatically as oil depletes and becomes
more expensive. This will reduce the so called reserves to much
shorter time periods. You are dreaming if you are thinking more than
25 to 50 years.