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The Forum > Article Comments > The pitfalls in talking up the economy > Comments

The pitfalls in talking up the economy : Comments

By Arthur Thomas, published 12/12/2008

An inexperienced Rudd Government will pay for poor preparation and self promotion by rushing in with rhetoric and grand visions before determining the full extent of the crisis.

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Argentine tried it with farming exports, they failed miserably.
Now try playing those games with big mining companies, when you
want their investments and skills! They are not the plaything
of politics you know. You would soon learn the hard way.

As you stated, this is not just about a few royalties, but about
manipulating our resources and their availability to China etc,
for your political benefit.

So you think that China would just play meek and mild and
be submissive, as you played your games? Think again.

Our market share only matters in the short term, not the long
term. So what do you think China would do in response? There
is plenty of iron ore around the world, plenty of coal too,
it just needs development. China is scouring the world,
particularly the third world, for resources and they are there,
they just need development.

If you tried to put pressure on the Chinese with your little
schemes, do you know how quickly 1000 million beaverish
Chinese can react to your threats? They know how to play
the third world game, they don't need to worry about human
rights, or corruption accusations, or anything else for that
matter.

You clearly don't understand the law of unintended consequences
and it would smack you in the face. Even Opec had to learn
that one the hard way, when they thought that they could hold
the world to ransom with oil, a far more important commodity.
Posted by Yabby, Thursday, 18 December 2008 8:17:14 PM
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Ahhhh Yabby check your figures in relation to supplies of iron ore and coal. You'd clearly be shocked at how few countries not only supply both for export but have 66% of the known reserves. And also while you are about that minor task check also the fe content of the ores of the various major holders of iron ore.
An iron ore organisation controlling more of the raw material than opec controls of oil would need only two members. You really think the Chinese might invade Australia eh?

Ahhh another comic relief indeed.

You totally misunderstand the panic engulfing the operations of big companies and governments in todays worsening economic environment...especially those dealing in iron ore and steel.

Now here's a prediction for you:

After the impact of a huge reduction, of at least 50%, in prices for coal and minerals in April 09 the world will see and endure another financial crisis larger in size than the sub-prime collapse. It'll be termed the Alt A crisis.

Those BHP shares took another battering last night, gold rose, and the US dollar fell. And look at that oil price tumbling towards US$20 a barrel. Now it's about supply and demand not speculation. What's the price of minerals when oil does reach that price?

Now tell me, right now, would you rather be holding gold and watch your global wealth increasing or BHP shares and watching your retirement contract?
Posted by keith, Friday, 19 December 2008 8:52:26 AM
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*Ahhhh Yabby check your figures in relation to supplies of iron ore and coal.*

Ahhh Keith, but I have checked my figures and Australia does not
own 66% of known reserves. So stop kidding yourself.

I am more then happy with my BHP shares as one of many investments
in all sorts of things. I have no intention of holding gold,
I'll let you do that. Did your granda never tell you not to
put all your eggs into one basket? You should have paid attention
Keith. Diversified assets are the best strategy in uncertain
times.
Posted by Yabby, Friday, 19 December 2008 10:18:52 AM
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Yabby,

Today is a first. I'm going to tell the world of something I own.
I inherited from my grandfather some 1916 English Gold Sovereigns and some minted in Perth in the 20's ... and from my father some Kruger Rands. Both told me that at sometime in their lives they had all their worldly possessions in gold... and that resulted in an overall increase in their wealth in periods of turmoil... while others lost plenty.

It was one of those lessons I've never forgotton. ie Flexibility especially in times of crisis is essential.

Oh and read my earlier post properly ... I think you've missed something... that comprehension has let you down yet again yab...
Posted by keith, Friday, 19 December 2008 11:04:23 AM
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you guys been talking a while[but are basiclly talking about commodities ,shirts, iron ore , gold krugerands ,thing is each is a basic commodity

but here is an angle on commodities your guys are perhaps missing[umbrellas sell when it rains] meaning when food hyperinflates out of its true price range ,it will yet cost about the same in gold[silver] and other commodities
[to its base value [as set by demand] ,i cant buy gold ,so i bought up silver , nickle[coin] AND FOOD

but that aint the topic

[the topic is as i recall about talking down the ecomnomy[well here is the scoop[ya gold is going up[your steel stay the same or go down marginally for the imediate future

[but the thing is petrol[it is measured in inflation, the second some idiot makes war it will shoot back up[YOU KNOW ITS PRICE re inflating AFFECTS OUR INFLATION
,so expect while the economy stagflates ,the petrol re inflation creating hyper inflation

[and that empties the stores of all produce]
get it?

it is written that in the end time people will eat money[fiat paper]
it dont get dug up [but its only created at whim , controled only by the banking system[who have such a fine exclusive cartel franchise that they lend govts their OWN money[govt dont issue money the fed does]

the fed needs hyperinflation to reset its money 'market' ,the boom needs a bust so those in on the scam[at fixed rate intrest] can pay off their debt with hyper inflated currency[see?]

but with out money ok no job [no one else either]
no food thats another matter alltogether
how much gold you going to pay for my last can of baked beans?

the rich let them eat paper [or gold]
the poor will just eat the rich
Posted by one under god, Friday, 19 December 2008 11:33:11 AM
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*It was one of those lessons I've never forgotton. ie Flexibility especially in times of crisis is essential.*

Keith, sure flexibility is essential, but there are many ways
of being flexible, not just by owning gold. Not having any
debts to start with, is a pretty handy way to start.

Note those people falling over everywhere, nearly all of them
borrowed too much.

Now you get your feeling of security from gold, but a friend
of mine who went through hard times as a child, his mother
swapped her golden wedding ring for a bag of potatoes to feed
her family.

This little hobby farm here has just harvested around 300 tonnes
of grain. Now in the scheme of things that is not much, but its
enough to give me some kind of security. You can't eat your
gold after all. Next year, we should have another 300 tonnes.

Rather then gold, I simply prefer to own productive assets, that
will still be there when whatever crisis has come and gone.

Good farmland is one of those assets. The problem with gold
is that every ounce ever mined in the world, is still there and
its essentially useless. Central banks are full of the stuff
and the price of gold is governed by how much they decide to sell.

I've seen people do really well out of gold and lose their shirts
over gold, for they can't predict what those central banks will
do next week.

There is no shortage of gold, but there can be a shortage of
food, for the ever increasing global population needs to eat
Posted by Yabby, Friday, 19 December 2008 9:53:54 PM
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