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The Forum > Article Comments > The pitfalls in talking up the economy > Comments

The pitfalls in talking up the economy : Comments

By Arthur Thomas, published 12/12/2008

An inexperienced Rudd Government will pay for poor preparation and self promotion by rushing in with rhetoric and grand visions before determining the full extent of the crisis.

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Here's another idea. Let's find a way of exporting electricity. Sure it's difficult but how the hell ever did we find a way to export natural gas.
We've the coal and can produce electricity much cheaper than our competitors. Maybe not realistic now ... but why not in the future? To all the climate changers... who used to be Global warmers ... errr why aren't the oceansrising and temperatures nolonger rising? Cos global warming is a crock of the human crop.

Now listen to who says these ideas cannot work ... and you'll see only those whose interests are not to get Australia back to work.

Take note pegasus ... some of us right-wingers do actually come up with positive solutions.
Posted by keith, Sunday, 14 December 2008 3:29:44 PM
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*Again Yabby you've got it wrong.
Here's the un-obvious, tax exports ... to the point where imported manufactured items are competitive, but barely, with locally manufactured items. *

Ah Keith thinks I have it wrong. Luckily for us, he is not
our economics minister :)

Your method is of course the quickest way to crash our standard
of living, crash the Australian peso and turn us into a bankrupt
banana republic.

I'm not sure what you have in that pipe you are smoking, but it
sure ain't tobacco :)

*Here's another idea. Let's find a way of exporting electricity. Sure it's difficult but how the hell ever did we find a way to export natural gas.*

Well you could always turn into back into coal, then you would have
a great way to export the electricity.

Thinking outside the square does not mean losing your mind, Keith.
Posted by Yabby, Sunday, 14 December 2008 4:10:04 PM
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Yabby,consider a $15.00 shirt from China.It is made for say $2.00 and Target which has mainly OS shareholders retails it for $15.00.The Aussie worker buys it on credit.This borrowed money is supplied by foreign interests.Both the profits and interest goes OS .Our foreign debt thus increases.Even if the shirt were made here for $9.00,it would still retail for $15.00.

Even Rupert Murdoch in the past has made this observation about Nike shoes.If the shoes were made here,then most of the money would remain here thus reducing our debt.Consumerables are not income producing assets.Compounding debt soon outstrips large profit margins and most sane people reduce debt to ensure long term prosperity.
Posted by Arjay, Monday, 15 December 2008 4:32:35 PM
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Look Yabby

Would you only comment on my postings and completely desist from personal attacks. It's rude.

You haven't explained why and how my suggestions would be 'the quickest way to crash our standard of living, crash the Australian peso and turn us into a bankrupt banana republic.'

Since you've made the generalisation I'd like you to explain ... in detail ... exactly how your predicted senario will occur, taking into account todays conditions of course.

Don't bother with anything else as everything else you've said is completely irrelevant to any discussion
Posted by keith, Monday, 15 December 2008 5:51:19 PM
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*The Aussie worker buys it on credit.This borrowed money is supplied by foreign interests*

Exactly Arjay, that is why our current account is bad and my
suggestion to drop taxing interest on bank deposits. People would
then have a reason to save. Right now they have none, for inflation
and taxation take it all.

As to Target, they are owned by Wesfarmers, who have over 450'000
shareholders, nearly all mums and dads, due to the old Coles discount
scheme. Wesfarmers turned over 33 billion last year and earned
1 billion. So about 3c in the dollar goes to shareholders, the
rest to costs, employing those hundreds of thousands. They are
Australia's largest employer after all.

The reality is that Australia has a very small population and
modern processing machinery, to turn cotton into a t shirt, from
the dyes (huge EPA problems), spinning, cleaning, knitting,
etc, are so expensive, that only huge volumes make them cost
effective. Your cost per t shirt, to pay for all those capital
investments, apart from labour, would be so high, consumers would
be unable to afford t shirts!

That is just one product, out of 100'000 products. Where are
all these people who want to work in factories on a production
line? Why don't they apply for the jobs on offer now?

Keith it would take alot more then 350 words, to explain to you
why your scheme is nonsense and would bankrupt Australia.

Firstly however, overseas financiers would cut your credit off
tomorrow, for it would be clear to them that Australia was going
down the gurgler quickly. Our efficient miners and farmers are
why they still lend us money now. Yet you see no problem if
those exports plummet. Think again.
Posted by Yabby, Monday, 15 December 2008 6:35:01 PM
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Yabby,

'Keith it would take alot more then 350 words, ...'

A cop out.

Write for on line opinion refuting my idea. You'd have upto 24 hundred words.

You ask two questions about emploment. Unemployment is comming off a record low, do you think unemployment in this recession has peaked at 4.3%?

You talk about overseas financiers cutting off our credit. Given today our banks borrow 80% of our total overseas debt and lend that mostly for purchases of imported goods and houses why would anything change especially if our unemployment was kept low by the opening and operating of factories that substituted Australian for imported goods?

Other countries would stop buying our cotton even if the price increased as we supply only 3% of the world market but two things would occur. Firstly local manufacturers would take up some of the drop in exports and our production in recent years has been well down, because of the drought, that trend for cotton farmers to enter other crops will continue. Other factors would also change elsewhere eg. there are growing shortages of water and arable land in China, the US subsidies would naturally lift, Brazil would follow our lead as it would have aready jumped on our band wagon with iron ore... Result: cost of raw material would rise, even if not significantly, across the world, and so would the price of imported t-shirts.

The example of t-shirts probably isn't the most appropriate but it does highlight complexities and a direction for us. ie target industries and products where we can have significant effect on world prices.

Benefits: There would be a net increase in jobs in Australia in the production of raw materials, manufacturing and of the production of exportable food.

:degradation of our lands would lessen as would the agricultural demand for water.

Food for thought for you I think.

There might be a few factories in China wanting to sell their equipment ... real cheap ... at the moment.
Posted by keith, Tuesday, 16 December 2008 7:23:17 AM
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