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The real reason behind high oil prices : Comments
By William Engdahl, published 30/5/2008The price of oil climbs relentlessly higher. Why? Because of deliberate US government policies that permit unbridled oil price manipulations.
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Posted by jacinta, Monday, 16 June 2008 3:29:41 PM
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So Jacinta, when did Australian oil production peak, and what are our production volumes today compared to then?
How will our domestic production look in 5 years? How much of our own consumption will we be able to produce then, and how much will we have to import? What will this do to our balance of trade? What are the trends over the next decade? They'll be the REAL factoids when you fill up your scooter. (SUV's will probably be illegal except on special allowance for certain industries.) Posted by Eclipse Now, Monday, 16 June 2008 4:49:47 PM
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Ah easy fixed. Just buy one of these!
http://www.teslamotors.com/index.php Why do we think that hybrids are the future? Posted by Yabby, Monday, 16 June 2008 5:07:41 PM
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I have no doubt that the future of transport is electric — I just think it's about trams, trains, and trolley buses, not our own cars.
The reason? Peak lithium and other rarer metals essential for the batteries we rely on for cars. Until such time as they manufacture renewable cars from renewable materials that are plentiful and abundant, I'm not sure about the future of a 'car for everyone'. Also... what do those Tesla motors sell for? ;-) Posted by Eclipse Now, Monday, 16 June 2008 6:14:49 PM
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Trams are fine in cities. The good thing about high oil prices,
I think that all sorts of technologies are going to come out of it all. The Tesla is 100k$, but given that it accelerates as fast as most high powered sports cars, its a bargain! The point is, it just shows what technology can do, electric cars are not just for little old ladies, as I used to think :) A Tesla and some solar cells on your house roof, you'd be set for life, virtually free travel. There are a couple of interesting, lengthy articles in last week's AFR, all about electrics. I've asked Graham if he might be able to post them on OLO, for general debate, as they are highly informative. They mention the Baker, made in 1909. The Edison batteries still work, you just need to change the electrolyte now and then. So I would not panic about peak lithium just yet, more like buy some shares in lithium mines now :) The point is, the Prius is now old technology, so 70 million for what? Why not go straight for the future? Do away with all that weight and those many parts, in a hybrid Posted by Yabby, Monday, 16 June 2008 6:33:51 PM
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Those things are great, but oil is not all about transport. Freight, fertilizers, farm machinery, medicines, plastics - all oil dependant in today's world.
I couldn't care less if I had to walk a couple of kilometres to the shops, so long as there was food on the shelves within my price range. So long as there was food on the shelves at all. If all we had to worry about was what kind of cars we'd drive Peak Oil would still have a huge impact, but at the end of the day it wouldn't be that bad. Btw Engdahl was warning of Peak Oil until 2007, when he suddenly decided that oil is "abiotic" - that its origins are not fossil-based but rather are generated somehow from magma deep within the earth's crust. He then reasoned that oil fields are constantly being replenished, and therefore cannot "peak". Given this belief he goes on to deduce that any decline in production must be due to political tampering or price fixing. http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Geopolitics___Eurasia/Peak_Oil___Russia/peak_oil___russia.html So the plummeting production in huge fields like the North Sea, Cantarell and USA/Alaska must all be a huge conspiracy? If you commit to a way-out theory like abiotic oil then that's the only possible explanation I guess. Posted by commuter, Tuesday, 17 June 2008 2:15:53 PM
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Some factoids:
. Aust is 80 % self proficient in crude oil, petrol, diesel and LPG. Only 20 % is imported, mainly from Singapore.
. Tapis crude is the key benchmark. Oz's regional market is in the Asian Pacific, NOT the NYMEX at $ 138 a barrel.
. MOPS95 Petrol is the key petrol benchmark.
. Refiner margins are the difference between crude and product prices - both set by the Oil companies i.e Caltex ( Chevron ) Mobil ( Exxon ) Shell and BP.
. Wholesale prices (TGP) ARE DEPENDENT ON AUST TAXES, SHIPPING COSTS, FUEL STANDARDS, EXCISE, WHARFAGE, TERMINAL ,marketing and refinery margins.
. Generally a time lag 1-2 weeks between Singapore prices and TGP's.
. Metropolitan and regional prices vary considerably.
. Other costs include: transport, administration, insurance, service stations, wages, rents,competition and promotional advertising.
. Oil companies set prices across Aust despite emphatic denying this to the ACCC, State Govt watchdogs, and Federal Fuel watch.
. According to Aust Institute of Petroleum, average oil companies profit over the last 10 years is around 1 cent per litre of fuel sold ??
Incidently, Aust six Refineries control production, distribution and demand. Ethanol is a no brainer. Profits, subsidies, market share and Political donations is a closely guarded secret, and non negotiable. Media sources and enquiries are off limits.
And that, is the true picture every time you fill your SUV.