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The Forum > Article Comments > Mission impossible > Comments

Mission impossible : Comments

By Alan Moran, published 25/2/2008

Professor Garnaut barely scratches the surface in recognising the enormousness of the task needed to reduce CO2 emissions by 90 per cent.

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I have lived in Central Victoria for 30 years.

Our local waterway, Deep Creek was nearly the site of my drowning 20 years ago. Now it is merely a shallow dribble. Platypus, even water rats are nowhere to be seen. The reservoir is down to a puddle, and up at the headwaters where I fly-fished for trophy trout seven years ago, there is not a drop of water to be seen. Even the ancient springs that leaked from under the vast basalt plains have disappeared.

Six years ago, my garden grew enough tomatoes for a year's supply of tomato and spaghetti sauce. This year, I'll be lucky to get enough for a couple of salads. The vegetables seem to be confused. A few behave as you might expect, but most rush to seed or wither prematurely. Some have barely grown since I planted them months ago.

The huge Orb Spider's webs are conspicuous by their absence. No more do I hear the moths and beetles banging around the outside light and on the window panes. Butterflies are down to the odd Cabbage White, and dragonflies don't visit any more. I am no longer required to scoop up invading spiders and deposit them back outside. I haven't heard a frog for ages.

The only thing which hasn't diminished is we humans, but it feels like we are all holding our breath to see what will happen next.

- I'll keep you posted.
Posted by Chris Shaw, Carisbrook 3464, Thursday, 28 February 2008 7:55:12 AM
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Chris, climate change and variability is the natural condition of the Earth. The issues are - have human actions led to accelerated global warming? If so, will it continue; is it harmful? Is so, can we slow/reverse the change? Might there be a natural reversal (global cooling) which would render such action counter-productive? Either way, what are the costs and benefits of action to reduce change versus inaction/adaptation? Ad hoc accounts of your locality throw no light on these issues, none of which have, in my view, been fully determined.

And whatever the facts, it is indisputable that Australia's actions will have little or no effect on future climate.
Posted by Faustino, Thursday, 28 February 2008 10:06:31 AM
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Good call David.

How do you explain 1974 floods while following your theory?
Posted by rehctub, Thursday, 28 February 2008 10:12:27 AM
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There will always be years in which we have either extreme wet or dry periods, probably connected with the El Nino. These will occur regardless of whether we have AGW, warming or cooling or whatever.

Although I am concerned about AGW, I think the more important concerns should be about the growth of global population, resource use and food production which directly or indirectly effect AGW as well as the long term survival of mankind.

As I said in another post, we have no a priori claim for our civilisation to be everlasting. I believe that some previously quite advanced civilisations disappeared because they used up all the resources which were then available. We are inexorably heading down the same path, driven by economists who insist on following the dogma of "Growth, Growth, Growth." Unless they can come up with a new paradigm the slope will get more slippery as the years roll by.

David
Posted by VK3AUU, Thursday, 28 February 2008 10:37:53 PM
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Rehclub;
You have obviously misunderstood what the reports were saying.
The temperatures under discussion are global averages, not whether the
summer was hot or cool in NSW or cold in Alaska or hot in Spain.

Thats not what we are talking about at all. It is the global average,
that has fallen by 0.6 deg.

To complicate matters there is a scientific argument about where in the
atmosphere the temperatures should be measured.
Some say at ground level some say at a different altitude.
Some say satellite measurements are the best some not.

It makes it difficult for us, but it appears that there has been a
significant fall in the last year and everyone will wait and watch to
see if it continues falling or will remain at the lower level.
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 29 February 2008 8:13:18 AM
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Bazz

I think you miss the point of their argument, although it is somewhat anecdotal.

Even I can remember the regular morning frosts in Sydney 30/40 yrs ago … night time minimums are creeping up!

I have a sister in Dorset UK, last Feb she phones and says its snowing on the friggin beach … unheard of she says.

My son travelled to Germany last year (their mid winter) and hoped to do a spot of skiing – no friggin snow and had to travel yonks (Switzerland) to find it!

My daughter was in Malaysia one month later visiting extended family … their hometown of 42,000 people were evacuated due to unheard of local flooding!

Most people do have anecdotal evidence of these “extreme” weather events – indicative and predicated of ‘climate change’.

However, anecdotal evidence is not science, and ‘weather’ is not ‘climate’, see;

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=7051#107218

Nevertheless, you are right, global temperatures have fallen and it remains to be seen if it continues, and more importantly for how long.

I suspect once ENSO shifts back to ‘normal’ we will continue to see the upward trend in global averages.

Yes, it is difficult … and it is complex.
Therefore, don’t you find it strange that some people who don’t have any expertise in the science are more than willing to say it is all crap?

Just because ‘deniers’ don’t want to believe in GW does not make it not so. How’s that for a triple negative?
Posted by Q&A, Friday, 29 February 2008 6:55:13 PM
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