What makes you think politics is rational? Politicians appeal to emotions. It's not so much a slide towards Rudd but away from Howard. I'd wait a while before making sweeping generalisations. Calling an election tends to pull up the polls for the incumbent. Oh yeah, polls aren't rational either.

What an extraordinary load of arrogant irrational drivel.
The Tories are born to rule OK.

Howard's "capacity to best connect to working australians" is summed up by Workchoices. amazingly dumb article by another liberal shill. felicity wasn't available?

Its the polls, no its the media, no its Rudd, no its aliens from mars. When will the Liberal Party realise it is them?

What a blow-hard. Like most Tories, Ariel believes people are only being rational when they vote for his lot. When they contemplate an alternative they immediately become a panic-stricken mob.

Memo to Jonathon: The Labor Party are the natural reformers of Australian politics - the first Hawke cabinet was the most intellectually formidable government in Australian history. Together, Hawke and Keating opened the Australian economy to the world and laid the foundations for the 17 years of continuous economic growth that Howard now claims credit for.

What the people are craving is a return to centralism in Australian politics. People are sick and tired of the scapegoating of minorities, the wedge politics and the culture wars that attempt to make enemies of anyone who reads books or who entertains a view of the world that encompasses other things than making money.

In this context, your faux hysterical claims about looming socialism are yet another sign of the vicious, born-to-rule mentality which afflicts the dwindling band of radical right-wing supporters for a prime minister well past his use by date.

Answer this question, Ariel. If even his own ministers have no faith in him, how rational would it be for the electorate to plump for another term of Howard?

An excellent analysis - the media is baying for change and allowing the ALP a dream run.
Rudd has shown himself to be arrogant, incompetent and inexperienced and the media utters not a word.
If John Howard stepped down the media would immediately brand him a coward and say "all is now lost".
No Ruawake and others the problem is not the Coalition - the problem is the media and a Leader of the Opposition who is terrified of letting his team have too much to say.
The ALP has unionists and staffers all over the place - and noone is saying a word for fear of people realising just who might be in control.
Be afraid, be very afraid? Yes, the ALP will be able to wreck the economy and the workplace within weeks of an election and the damage they will do in three years will be irreparable. This is an election the Coalition may lose. If it does then Australia will lose far more. It may be though that the media will be more to blame than the electorate.
Noone is reminding the electorate that Rudd agreed that there were WMDs in Iraq and, behind the scenes, was agreeable to sending troops there. And if we are to pull out of Irag then we should also pull out of Afghanistan, East Timor - and the UN.

Jonathan Ariel: "the Grand Old Party (GOP) of Australian politics"

Finally, an admission that the Liberal Party is just a branch of the American Republican Party.

The rest of the article is little more than Tory/Neocon bulldust. Expect more of it in weeks to come, becoming ever more hysterical.

Jonathon Ariel admits upfront that 'current polling is indeed a shock for conservatives (including me)'. And his article - shallow and lacking insight - confirms why that polling is a shock to him.

He just doesn't get it - as other posters comment, he is looking for someone - anyone - other than the PM to blame.

Nothing about how people are experiencing the impact of the ideologically driven, un-mandated WorkChoices and the crude attempt to soften it when it became obvious that people were being hurt.

Nothing about the selfishness of Howard in clinging to power well beyond his use-by date.

Nothing about Howard's complete turnaround - but only in election mode - on climate change.

Nothing about the kowtowing to the most unpopular US President of all time.

Nothing about lying to Australians when following Bush into the Iraq quagmire.

Nothing about the un-mandated centralisation of Federal powers.

Nothing about the pork-barrelling in marginal seats.

Nothing about the Hicks affair, or Haneef or Cornelia Rau or the AWB scandal.

Nothing about the many Liberal negatives that explain the polls.

Jonathon is no Dale Carnegie in his quest to win friends and influence people. He insults - even-handedly - everyone except his vainglorious Howard. So he sticks it up the ALP's 'natural constituency, the great unwashed' . And 'panic stricken cognac drinking conservatives'. And the Heir Apparent leading the 'cowardly conservatives', 'Pierre Popinjay'.

Jonathon even has an insult for Tony Blair's 'vulgar, loud mouthed, leftist wife' - though what she has to do with Australian polling is not clear.

And he has some breaking news for Liberals who think Howard should go: '...some of you cannot even be counted on holding your own seats, yet have the gall to pass unsolicited commentary.' Did I hear Bennalong and Wentworth?

Jonathon is so agitated that his metaphors get mangled as does his spelling. 'And now, some conservatives are barking madly, hoisting the white flag and running with their tail between their legs. Quite a sad site really.'

Yes, but for others it's a not unexpected sight Jonathon.

I remember hearing Churchill’s “Gestapo Speech.” I was aged 12 y at the time. I had just found an old crystal wireless set belonging to my grandmother. I got the set working. I was in bed listening with head phones. I think it must have been about 9.00 0r 10.00 pm.

I believe that the hyperbole of the speech was a possible factor in his election loss.

CJ Morgan says "Finally, an admission that the Liberal Party is just a branch of the American Republican Party."

CJ obviously does not pay attention to who is driving the ALP. Vic Fingerhut, a lead strategist for the American Democrat party is pulling all the strings behind Rudd. http://ambit-gambit.nationalforum.com.au/archives/002203.html

Fingerhut takes pride in his design and orchestration of the anti work choices campaign and has spent time here in Aus directing the ALP members.

Fingerhut's leadership in this election is what the unknowing labor supporters are voting for. Fingerhut has done a fine job in directing the ALP to run their campaign just like an American presidential campaign. Fingerhut has also been able to keep all the ALP supporting rabble gagged so that only Rudd appears as the front man in his attempt to give the voters the impression that they are voting for Rudd as opposed to the various union rabble in their district.

"Witness Muslim apologists" - curious that the author thinks Muslims have indeed done anything as a class of people for which others need to apologise - I guess like may of the other positions he has adopted he has generalised from the particular.

And boy oh boy are we as an electorate a bunch of ninnies!

Clearly too few of us have MBAs that allow us to undertake a forensic disection of political events - as has our friend done here - had more of us been so blessed the conservatives would have always been and will be forever more in power.

The ALP gave us a mature economy - free of all the crap foisted on us by Rural Socialism and cowardly protectionist policies - sure they stuffed a few things up - but the authors argument is predicated on the assumption the economy rules - and well it may - but if it does it does so with scant regard for governments of the day - we are an economic minnow being swept along by a worlds hunnger for stuff we happen to have in spades -

Given the failure to invest the largesse flowing from this good luck in infrastrucure - or pretty much anything at all - you would be an idiot to consider this to be a well managed economy - it is for the moment a lucky one at best riding on a debt bubble ready to burst.

The electorate knows that - whatever stupid pork barreling flows from treasury - the electorate knows that the ALP can turn the same tap on when it likes once/if in power - but now they will play conservatively while the coalition sets about eating its young.

It isnt the economy - it is the lies, hubris and contempt - a government basking in the relfected glory of a resource boom they have duck ( read eff) all to do with - that is the rationality underpinning a slide towards Rudd.

Commentators like Ms Albrechtsen appear to be more interested in throwing their weight around than making sense. Her comments(as a conservative) could not possibly help the liberals in this election. Overall the media has done an appalling job during this election campaign the effect of which is to belittle Mr Howard all the time (eg tripping over and forgetting a name was major news) whilst Mr Rudd is always portrayed in a positive light(opinion polls are substituted for lack of policy). What this campaign has shown is the inept media in this country. One can only hope that the electorate ignores them in the end.

This article is typical of the born to rule types who attach themselves to the upper echelons of the Liberal party. We see their hysteria in the Australian (or the Government Gazette) every day as an election draws closer.

Janet Albrechtsen might fancy herself as the Ann Coulter of Australia but apart from superficiality, she is misguided. To have a healthy democracy should mean regular changes in government. No one party should have a monopoly on power, despite the misguided ravings of L. F. Crisp who writing from a Labor perspective would never bring himself to mention the conservative parties by name - they were always the parties of capital, the town or country. 23 years of unbroken Liberal rule meant that a novice Labor government in 1972 was unfamiliar with the levers of power. At least Bob Hawke and Paul Keating gave the ALP familiarity with handling the economy. It is high time that the glassy eyed ideologues of the feral right either realize that we live in a democracy and that Kevin Rudd is unlikely to change matters very much, or alternatively, perhaps they could arrange a military coup. Grow up Mr Ariel!

I have to agree with an earlier post that Rudd's popularity is due more to the increasing unpopularity of the Coalition rather than any desire for change merely for change's sake. This is insulting to the electorate as is the implication that those who have suffered directly under WorkChoices have just imagined the real decline in their standard of living. Especially when those who have benefitted under AWAs are professionals who always had bargaining power even under the old system or miners who are experiencing real benefits due to the resources boom. It has done little for those at the lower end of the income spectrum, namely those in retail, lower clerical or hospitality roles.

We had the opportunity for change last election and with good reason, but still the electorate was not open to change due to the perception that the opposition lacked cohesiveness, a viable leader and did not produce the goods on real policy alternatives. Now that the ALP looks like winning by a landslide, suddenly the media is touting the public's 'need for a change scenario'.

Look no further than the policies of this government, the arrogance of introducing draconian workplace 'reform' during a period of little industrial action, the spurious reasons for going into Iraq, the cover up over the AWB scandal...etc etc.

Certainly John Howard's personality has changed over the years.

His growing persistence in using 'I' rather than 'we' proves how he has been in power too long, shown even more just lately as when fighting for his political future he expresses himself more like a dictator than a democratic leader.

He even has Costello scared to express his true feelings - causing democracy to be even more with the Libs, on the way out the window.

It is also so interesting to find Howard still treating Bush as a superior - a personality most of us would not even give the time of day - unipolar presidentio or not.

Maybe it is why so many of us have grown tired of a Johnny grown well past a come lately?

This post exhibits all the qualities of a spent political force:

* Turning on fellow travellers for not being ideologically pure enough.
* Insisting that the public have 'got it wrong' about one's brilliant policies. I think the phrase Mr Ariel used was "the public's asinine judgement". Charming.
* Blaming the meeja for one's misfortunes.
* Reaching back into the distant past for a parable.

And Mr Ariel, Tanya Plibersek has been 'missing in action' with her own lengthy opinion piece every Wednesday (or is it Tuesady?) in the Herald for the last year or so. The laryngitic Mr Garrett spoke without coughing for an hour at last week's National Press Club address and on Insiders the Sunday before that.

And the APEC protesters didn't run riot because they were never going to. That was a shibboleth of your own fevered imagination. As for Julia Irwin, she's always been invisible, so no change there. Unionists have been on the telly quite a bit lately - John Robertson in particular gets an almost nightly run, and his tongue is working fine.

Your post is Exhibit A in the case of "Who Murdered The Liberal Party?" It demonstrates all the wilful blindness, misjudgements and lack of self-awareness that has cost your beloved party the goodwill of the Australian people.

Some time on the reserve benches is needed to help you to ponder where you went wrong.

We will know soon enough.

Cant wait to these silly elections are done with, then we can get back to the pantomime.

Does k.rudd actually have a plan for our ambitious race to the bottom.

If we wanted to look at the real truth of the matter, the trouble lies in the spirit world where the dark forces of satan are stirring up bad attitudes towards John Howard and his government. The "your say" columns are full of irrational hate towards John and his government, yet the authors cant explain their hate... certainly not sensibly. They just hate for the sake of hating. That tells, me as a committed christian, that invisible powers are at work. If you want a simple look at the great spirit battle between God and satan here on earth read Ephesians 6:12-18. Invisible powers manipulating men is on the increase...small example: demons feed men the lust for porn and the sex crime goes through the roof. There wouldnt be a on-fire for Jesus christian on the face of the earth that didnt know these were the last days (Luke chapter 21/Matthew chapter 24) prior to the endtimes (the Book of Revelation).

.............................well damn me! So THAT'S the reason!!

(Beam me up Scotty.)

What complete tripe. There is nothing irrational about being sick to death of John Howard and his snivelling bunch of lying cowards.

The reality is that we have a GDP of $1 trillion and a debt of $1.64 trillion which makes us not viable. The only reason trade has increased is rising prices and higher dollar, there are no more jobs than before, 2 million are unemployed or underemployed, serfchoices is an absolute catastrophe for job security for our young people and please give us all a rest from the Howard worship.

"Being unable to organise a leadership challenge when you're apparently heading for electoral oblivion is a bit like not being able to get a beer in a brewery."

Maria Hawthorne - CT this am.

can't see why anyone is excited about replacing howard with rudd. no big difference- they are both pollies, you know.

gibo: "the trouble lies in the spirit world where the dark forces of satan are stirring up bad attitudes towards John Howard and his government."

Indeed, Ginx. Clearly, it's the dark forces of satan that are causing the electorate to support Rudd, irrationally.

There's absolutely no irrationality evident among Howard supporters.

Nope, none at all.

Ah yes Gibo. I seem to recall you've counselled us on the dangers of demonic possession in the past.

Good for you. Decent satire is hard to find these days - keep at it.

Same goes for the author...

Is Gibo the new runner?

It seems to me that Ariel's irrational belief in the absolute evil of the Left and the unlimited benevolence of the Right is just as destructive to we realists as is Gibo and runner's irrational belief in their chosen deity.

In late breaking news, let it be known that I am no longer an atheist or an agnostic; I am now a frevent believer in the Invisible Pink Unicorn.

What a lot of cobblers.Under Labor i could still afford to eat,without adding up as i went ,have a night out ,have car repaired,have holiday,buy presents for people,have a damn sight better quality of life than i do now.That idiot and his party have almost made life unbearable for middle and lower income earners.Even if that smirking sycophant Costello were to take over the reins i don't believe the liberals would have a snowballs chance in hell of getting back in.Life for a lot of people is harder than it's ever been.Get a life and tell the real story.If this system continues we'll end up living in ghettos.Thank god i own my home,if i had to pay rent i'm sure i'd be on the street.I'm one of the people without a credit card or hire purchase and can no longer afford to even have a go on the lotto occassionally.Get out of your posh suburb and see how the real people live.

I’ m confused. Apparently our choice is between the Grand Old Party, which seems to be the Liberals (the merely 60-year-old post Protectionist/Free Trade, post-Fusionist, post-Nationalist, post-UAP fifth incarnation of the conservative forces in Australia) and the socialists, when I thought the 100-plus-year-old Labor Party was on the ballot.

Apparently the reporting of opinion polls is some sort of fabrication: “Fairfax Media is keen on it, running an A.C. Nielsen poll…foreshadowing the annihilation of the Liberal Party.” The press should be making up some polls with the Liberals in front.

Apparently, WorknotcalledChoicesanymore is not an attack on the essence of Australianism, the fair go translated to the industrial arena more than a century ago, but some ACTU-devised scare campaign.

Apparently the Maoist-finding, teacher-bashing Julie Bishop is “bright, high achieving and telegenic”.

Apparently a federal Labor Government would be “nothing but a quisling of socialist administrations in every single state and territory”. I just wish I knew which country had the state and territory socialist administrations, because it sure ain’t Australia. Victoria’s moderate Labor Government has made the Legislative Council more democratic (after the Liberals broke their 1973 promise to do so), enshrined the auditor-general in the constitution (after the Liberals basically privatized the office), employed 5,193 extra teachers (after the Liberals dumped 9,000), brought back the traditional academic disciplines of history and geography (after the Liberals brought in the trendy mess of SOSE), funded schools to cap prep to grade 2 classes at 21 pupils each (after the Liberals used retrospective legislation to remove the legally mandated limits on class sizes and teaching hours), invested $1.4 billion in capital spending on schools, cut taxes as a percentage of the state economy by more than $2 billion since 1999.

If a Kevin Rudd-led federal government is as good as the Victorian Labor one, we will enjoy years of progress.

The sad thing is that John Howard does have achievements (e.g., the GST), but his party will now turn on him as it has on Malcolm Fraser.

If Liberals can’t come up with a better line than Jonathan Ariel’s they are doomed.

You mean you folk dont believe in evil spirits? The born again christians do having participated in spiritual warfare against those who would kill them. The old dragon/satan/lucifer does well with the humanist/evolutionist by putting himself into their "mythology" as the man in the red suit with the pitchfork and the tail.

I am in the same position as Haygirl, fortunately I bought my own home and put money away for a rainy day because that's what I live on.

Under the previous Liberal government in Victoria a friend of mine was forced out of teaching at age 52. She had been a teacher since she was 18 but because she couldn't get to retirement age to get her pension she has to babysit, live under someone elses's roof etc.

This is quite a common story.

Meanwhile corporate profits are at an all time high proportion of GDP and viable Australian companies are being bought out by debt ridden private equity vehicles that want to sell off all the assets of the company before they have to pay back their debt in 5 years time.

Gibo,is that short for gibbon,because you certainly have the IQ of a monkey.I really believe that your posts are meant in jest.If not God,Allah,Yarweh and Santa Claus beware.Another person talking a load of cobblers.Where was the great man when my 16 year old son died in a traffic accident?Where was he when my grandson was diagnosed with a terminal brain tumour?Has society gone mad or is it just the monetary pressure and lack of a decent lifestyle that is sending us around the twist.God save us from the Liberal party and religious zealots.

Chris C,
It's interesting that you mention Malcolm Fraser in comparison with Howard's situation.

As I recall, Hawke was offering the electorate hope while Fraser based his arguments on fear and hate. (Hide your money under the bed because the Banks will go broke...)

Similarly, Hawke's other big item was the notion of "National Reconciliation" because at the time, our society was internally at war with itself - dole blugers and boat people were the enemies of every decent Aussie but we were seemingly always on the verge of a huge resources boom. (The classic Tory strategy is to break society up into opposing internal groups that fight among themselves and leave the government alone. Wedge Politics is a science to them.)

Today we're in that boom but wasting the opportunities it offers yet always looking for somebody to blame for our own problems other than the government itself.

We were warned about the Union Bosses then too, and that Labour would end up selling our children as pig food or something equally ridiculous along those lines.

I was passionately against Fraser in those days but I now find myself in agreement with many of the social comments he makes.

How bad must Howard be in comparison?

Only the names have been changed to protect the guilty. This tirade of party line nonsense could have been lifted directly from the corresponding commentary from the extreme right when Bob Hawke wiped Malcolm Frazer out, and the Hawke government went on to set the economic stage for the current wave of prosperity. For 'experience' read 'ossified bewilderment'. No mention in this article of the involvment in Iraq, no mention of the utilisation of the Hansenite childish and uninformed jingoism qua Tampa affair, no mention of the aborted attempt to introduce a churchman as governor general, no mention of the on-going blatant misuse of federal funds for party political purposes, no mention of the rorting of the republic referendum, no mention of the deliberate scare campaign re interest rates, no mention of the on-going impact of the Lyons group on the education of Australian children, etc etc - the list goes on. As to that grossly over-rated commodity, 'experience', business has woken up to that one. Try to obtain any sort of career position in the private sector when your resume lists 'experience' as its prime claim. Howard, as is most of his front bench, is past it, and his draconian all embracing industrial relation legislation has at last embraced the wrong people - the people who put Howard where he is in the first place - and they are the ones who will show their displeasure at the ballot box.

By the way, the only person who thinks Gough Whitlam is a labor icon is Gough Whitlam. The best thing Whitlam can do for labor - unlikely as it may be - is to keep his head down and shut up.

"The gravitation towards Rudd demonstrates an irrationality steeped in ignorance that flies in the face of logic."

What a convoluted piece of Party driven drivel.

It could be written in English as :

"Rudd's poll support is irrational, ignorant and defies logic".

But don't let me stop you adding in non essential language to pad out an item will you.

Apart from which. How on earth can you write this rubbish when the move to Rudd is simple and has little to do with him at all. He's competent and professional and that's all that matters compared to an old man who lies, cheats, bullies and does anything to keep "his" home at Kirribilli. Don't think for a minute it's about being PM as such. It's the luxury that he loves. And that's why he will fight on. He doesn't weant to lose his house. Well, our house actually John.

Simply pu mate the people have had enough of this rodent and it doesn't matter what he says or does from here on. He's finished so get used to it and try writing something that does not display your own irrational and ignorant views.

"Jonathan J. Ariel is an economist and financial analyst. He holds a MBA from the Australian Graduate School of Management." And is also off with the pixies.

Jonathan's got himself into an awful tizz. Poor thing.

Chin up old chum. Look at the bright side - you can spend at least the next three years venting your spleen. Nothing quite like a good spleen venting.

"Grand Old Party"

Quick somebody, pass the bucket.

The author describes himself as a 'conservative', or perhaps a 'liberal'. J.Ariel never once mentions what these terms mean. The author should read a bit of history or at least look up a political dictionary. No true liberal or conservative could support Howard. Conservatives have traditionally been concerned with accountability and the strict limiting of powers, while liberals have been concerned with the rights of the individual against the State. The Howard government has trampled both of these principles underfoot.

Australians have woken up to the fact that Howard and the 'Liberal' Party are neither liberal or conservative. They are powergrabbers and authoritarians which is why they will be turfed out at the next election.

J.Ariel should, in true liberal fashion, look after numero uno and become a Labor apparatchik. Just think of it as a career change - it doesn't really matter as long as you're on the winning side. :)

Some forum writers paint me as a Liberal Party apparatchick. That's not correct.

For the record, I am:

* not a member of the Party
* do not donate to the Party
* do not attend meetings of the Party

put simply, I have no involvement with the party whatsoever.

Nor do you seem to know much about the Party.

Thanks for a great piece of comedy writing, Mr Ariel. I haven't laughed so much since I read Andrew Bolt's classic expose of the Evil Greenie subliminal messages in "Finding Nemo".

You may not be a member of the Liberal Party but you sure know a lot about crap.

To refer to the Libs as the GOP demonstrates, as someone has pointed out above, not only your ignorance of history but an appalling American sycophancy.

Can't quite get you, Gibo, but guess you do sound as ultra-right wing as some of the End-Day freaks who try to make out that Christ was as right-wing as some of the German bishops who supported Hitler before WW2.

As one who tends to back reason more than faith, thought that my Christian mother taught me that the young Jesus mixed much with lowly fisherman, probably not caring about a bit of rough language, but even a bit like some of our lowly labourites of today.

Indeed, my strong sense of reason asks the question why modern Christians have changed so much, especially those who so fanatically support the growing corporate culture, seemingly so much like the greedy days of the East India Companies - et al?

love the thread! evidence conservatives still think Labor stole all those state elections?
Sometime not very good Labor governments beat dreadful conservative oppositions yet it just was not right?
Voters should be stopped? unless they vote as you want!
Those polls are being drive by refugees from a lost conservative government, not anything else.
Thanks however for the huge grin and yet another notice board item for my election night raging by by by by Johny night party.

Put simply Jonathon you are misguided.

The Liberal Parties problems are entirely of their own making. If they had thought about the future a year ago they may be in the race.

It is not the media or the polls making them look like a rable, they are doing it themselves.

Maybe Ruddock and Andrews are aliens, Joe certainly is.
:)

Mr Ariel= Fruitloop. When Janet's to the left of you, you should know somthings wrong. Take a Bex and have a lie down.

What suprises me and what those here will not say is you are right.

labor No sorry Rudd has done nothing except talk about workchoices and how many times has it been changed and also how rudd has told employers to ensure awa's last for five years.

hang didnt this bloke say we will get rid off workchoices but also saying dont worry fellas it only five years now on an AWA until i change my mind again.

All that has been heard is winge winge winge from rudd and hey mister rudd have a policy just for you.

It is a policy for a royal commission into the parlimentary system for all parties, all states including local councils.

The terms off reference are;
To weed out all corruption and those that have covered up or had anything to do with such will face a term of 10 years per offence.
There will be no allowances made and nobody will be immune.

Now got that out i know what labor thinks of this, this is why beattie is running and the states well looks like we will need a new prison.

Labor has nothing hard. What they do have is so much spin that it is so limp that even viagra will not help.

But hey when the people are not told about the way labor covers up crime,sexual abuse,peadophilia,corruption in the end when somebody stands up as says you get what you get.

You support it just like the miners, i still cant work out that black stuff on their faces.

Is it clean coal.

The unions shutting up again over privatisation, stuff the workers will get labor in first.
Public transport just the same stuff the workers.

Belly you see it you hear it you cannot tell me you support this.

If you do then that is why the unions are nothing compared to when my father was the trades and labor council president of orange and the Secretary of the ASE.

Stuart Ulrich
Independent Candidate for Charlton

And Charlton hasnt seen anything yet.

Notice how the left are so prolific with the rhetoric of hateful sterotyped one liners and will not engage in rational debate about polices or the reality of economic track records which shows Labor up to abysmal failures.Many are frustrated pseudo-intellectuals who find solace and security in the environs of Education.You don't know the reality unless you've been there and no amount of book reading or hateful ideology is a substitute for experience.

There is no method or logic in their venomous diatribes and like rebellious teenagers who think they should rule the world without having the ability or done the hard yards,they think the real world should behave to their expectations.

Survival is the name of the game and death is our advisor.

An article with this lack of rational argument, evidence and quality severely degrades the quality of online opinion, and should deserve no further comment.

Surely there are right wing commentators out there that can argue their case in a manner that doesn't remind me of a three year old throwing a tantrum?

"What makes you think politics is rational? Politicians appeal to emotions."

Very wise observation Cheryl!

The election will be won by those who can best push electoral
emotional buttons. Its forgotten that we are emotional creatures
who think a bit some times, not the other way around.

Thank you so much, Mr Ariel. This is the funniest thing I have ever read at OLO.

I see Arjay is on his high horse [again] on those mysterious "hard yards" and 'rugged individualism'. Qualities that he never reveals lest others have done it harder than himself I suspect.

Hard yards? More like six inches of erect sausage sticking up from the middle of his head

I don't at all miss reading these horrible examples of "Journalism" that comes from the so called Surburban Intellectual Mags of wealthy Sydney siders.

It's funny how the word Socialist popped up about 5 or more times during the article. This "red is under the bed" fogey attitude delluding any hope of a factual or engaging argument .

This article was as misleading as any Socialist Propaganda is. As for Kevin Rudd, his "me too" politics style and honing in on the unpopular workchoices is his safest bet to win. To be a conservative is the easiest way to defeat the stubborn Howard who would happily be Prime Minister until let's say his mid nineties...if health permits ofcourse. The fact is Rudd and Labour are very similiar to Liberal. At it's best they might a few more social interests (e.g No more workchoices) but generally despite people like Gillard and Peter (who was he again) Garrett - the Labour party know the conservative Australian Electorate. So Conservative that we have collumist like this one who defines Socialism as lower Bank Charges when transferring money from a foreign Swiss Account.

A joke to say the least.

Rainer you have affirmed my argument.Now tell us how your philosophy with a socialists Govt will make Aust a better country?

I'm not even trying to bait you Rainer and you keep tugging my line.

I believe that this article should be offered a more public forum in national Op Ed pages, to allow the message of the dangers of nutty Kevin and his union buddies, to be more widely considered by the obviously irrational Australian voting public. I am sure that many people will immediately come around to your well argued case for sticking with John Winston Howard until his planned retirement from politics sometime at his leisure in the next few years. What a vision for a dynamic competitive Australia.

"..........by the obviously irrational Australian voting public." (Quote:Colin Campbell)

Really? I think you might be right. They certainly were. But they won't be this time...

Both party's and even those who support them have changed much in the last 50 years.
Once a true Socialist party the ALP is now only in the insults thrown by conservatives unable to confront the likely hood of rejection at this election.
Once a true Liberal party , Howard now seems for the present to own his party.
He one day will be called to answer by history and those who are tasked with rebuilding it.
However my childhood in a different time saw people who though like the threads author.
Born to rule, we working class, yes that was us then, had to hold our hats over our hearts to be talked down to ,another time not now.
Labor and its followers have 11 years of heart break behind us that heartbreak was daily and very real.
And mostly self imposed! we took idiot policy's to the elections, and more unlovable leaders last time.
Yes we did .
Now Howard and his little lady have in their own mind become our royal family, even denying the will of the front bench.
Self imposed defeat, threads like this highlight the party is no longer Liberal, no longer in touch with its heart land.
Right wing rabbits have fought for branch control and lost state elections they should have won.
Turn this around in a month or take your own 10 years in the wilderness.
Tapp, thanks for you service to another poster, mate understand low in come workers bound for even lower wages, are best served by a Labor government.
To win they must not be other than mainstream.

TRUE POLITICAL COLORS.

OOoooo---k...its time for me to 'reveal' my true political colors..
Time for me to do my best go get you all to vote the way "I" want....
Time to campaign for the 'best' political party.

1/ It's not 'gun's which kill people..its 'people' who pull the triggers.
2/ It' not 'Unions' which blackmail the economy, its 'roque elements'

3/ Its not 'The Right' which exploits all available resources for better bottom lines and 'shareholder value'..its greeedy people.

4/ Its not "organized labor" which destroys social harmony, wrecks company viability and gives nervous breakdowns to those trying to make a go of it, it's people with sub agenda's.. "Class struggle" ideas and those who will do anything to gain power, including sidle up to others who are blatantly out to take our freedom away.

5/ Its not "powerful CEO's" in high positions who rip off the public, its 'people with black motives'...who will manipulate and restructure companies...shift debt to make a bottom line 'look' better and retain their huge bonus's.

IN SHORT We are a mess from top to bottom. Greedy, selfish, short sighted and hard hearted. When we ridicule and verbally spit on 'the right'..or..'the left' are we are doing it because of noble reasons, or... ?

SOLUTION... who to VOTE for......

Well.. no matter who we vote for we will get a bleeding 'politician'... and ALL political parties from what I can see are organized along lines of advancing personal interest. Some interests are financial, material and others are 'values' based.

I guess it all boils down to conscience and awareness. The only person I suggest we vote for is not even standing for election, except the election as 'king' of our hearts. Yes.. its the Messiah..Jesus, KING of kings and LORD of Lords.

"I came that they might have LIFE..and have it abundantly"

Liberals, Labor... what's the difference these days? With big business dominating both sides of the duopoly, Australians are left to choose between the lesser of two evils. As much as the Liberals deserve to be turfed from office, Labor's litany of broken promises at the state level simply demonstrates their own moral and intellectual bankruptcy. Is anybody, for example, sad to see the tail end of Peter Beattie? Didn't think so.

And then, of course, we have the issue of Kevin Rudd. Smarmy Mr. Rudd is the consummate politician of the 21st century - an unscrupulously opportunistic chameleon. All sizzle but no sausage. Beyond being a Sinophile, what does Mr. Rudd actually stand for? At least voters knew what to expect from Beazley and even Latham.

Boazy: "Yes.. its the Messiah..Jesus, KING of kings and LORD of Lords."

Wow. I hadn't heard such a slogan even from Kevin Rudd's most fervent supporters. Mind you, it has possibilities -
imagine if the strip club affair had been reported in such terms:

'He's not the Messiah, he's just a naughty boy!'

Even I'd think about voting Labor if Rudd was marketed in such a manner.

Kevin 07

Can the OLO editorial team *please* scour your contact networks, the internet, heck, even your own desk drawers, and come up with an article - something, anything, to show us that there are Coalition supporters out there with greater intellect than Mr Ariel and Ms Felicity McMahon?

*sound of pin dropping*

BOAZ_David

As his Campaign Manager, I have a question. If I vote 1 for the Messiah, what Party would he want to give his second preference votes to?

I think everyone's being a tad harsh on Mr Ariel, though I certainly understand why.

The title and description is rather loaded. In labelling the slide to Rudd 'irrational' and saying that it is steeped in ignorance, he effectively labels all Australians who support Rudd over Howard (which according to the polls, is a majority) as ignorant and foolish for their selection.

So I suppose he can't be too wounded when they return serve - though I suppose certain responses make it easy for Mr Ariel to rationalise his view that it is ignorance that has created this situation.

There are two sides to this - the economic sphere, and the social sphere.
Given that Howard has embraced a 'large l' liberal policy of conservatism on the social matters, it's understandable that a great many Australians will disagree on many issues. I've often thought that while Australia is quite a conservative nation, it is not quite as conservative as it's government in many areas of social policy.

The economic argument is one that has plenty of facets as well - controlling inflation has been at the core of the argument, and fair enough - though the Howard government (partly due to federal-state grievances and the very structure of Australian government responsibilities) has dropped the ball on infrastructure.

Roads, water, health care - these are all in dire form. Technically, these are the responsibilities of the State, but the difficult issue we have, is that the State relies on federal funding for these issues, and we are continually faced with a situation wherein the Federal Government withholds cash until surplus time, then doles it out in a political manner. This won't change under Rudd, but the fact that the government has become a large, high taxing one, is a very rational reason.

There's plenty more reasons I can go into, but this will have to suffice for now...

Rudd’s only policies are to wind back work choices (a step backwards) pull Australian troops out of Iraq (another step back) and to refuses to consider nuclear power as an option (and back we go again)

So basically Rudd is against most things but what is this bloke for? Is he for anything or once he has undone a lot of the liberal party hard won reforms will he just sit around like a stale tub of yogurt waiting for the liberal party to come up with an innovative idea and then cry wolf and hope the Australian public are foolish and uneducated to believe his hyperbole and vote for him again.

Rudd is only going to retrograde Australia.

Lincoln’s only policies are to wind back slavery (a step backwards), to push Union troops out of the North into the South (another step back) and to refuse to consider the dissolution of the Union (and back we go again)

So basically Lincoln is against most things but what is this bloke for? Is he for anything or once he has undone a lot of the slave party’s hard won reforms will he just sit around like a stale tub of yogurt waiting for the slave party to come up with an innovative idea and then cry wolf and hope the American public are foolish and uneducated to believe his hyperbole and vote for him again?

Lincoln is only going to retrograde America

I guess we have all had losses Haygirl. Its a losses world while the great battle is on in the spirit world (Ephesians 6:12-18). Ive had a few losses myself and they hurt. One scripture that pops into mind when I hear of people dying in accidents is Ecclesiastes 9:12... "Moreover, no man knows when his hour will come: As fish are caught in a cruel net, or birds are taken in a snare, so men are trapped by evil times (events included) that fall unexpectedly upon them". This scripture tells us that things do happen. They hit hard and fast without any warning quite frequently. Its in our strength not to get bitter about them and to seek the Lord for His Comfort. If Christianity is a crunch to many peoples thinking, then bring it on anyway. I love the crutch and am no lesser because of The Lord in my life. Inviting Jesus into our lives is the greatest freedom from fear and uncertainty anyone can get. Calling on the Name of Jesus, sincerely, is such a life changing experience...Romans 10:13.

"The irrational slide to Rudd" ?

No, tis the rational slide (repulsion, sprint, escape...) from Howard.

What do we know of poll taking? My knowledge is that it cant be trusted in anyway at all. Throwing down the bones, searching the chicken entrails, staring into the crystal ball...and poll taking. Do you see the similarities? They are all delving into the future without going to the Christian God. Like stats they can be manipulated by asking the right questions. Men manupulating men is what its mostly about. Occult! Its all occult practice. What a terrible, unimaginable waste of time and money.

Fair enough gibo. You go poll God, and let us know how that works out. I'm particulary interested in his policies on asylum seekers, Workchoices and whether Julia Gillard should stick with a short haircut or experiment with a longer one.

Meanwhile, I'll try polling other Australians. Regrettably, I haven't received an official sanction from the God ministry, so I'll have to proceed anyway.
Unfortunately it's been a few thousand years since God released any policies, and I'm afraid they're getting a little out of date.

As regards rationality, this seems more of a questionare about who is right and who is wrong?

It seems that Rudd is being condemned for not favouring Bush like a bosom friend, as Howard has gone close to making a fool of himself over. In fact, going by global opinion at the time regarding the unlawful attack on Iraq, and right now an action becoming even more unpopular, Howard and Blair backing Bush is proving not only even more irrational, but Rudd’s recent comments about the Iraqi campaign having proven another Vietnam, has proven very rational with most academic historians.

Furthermore, while Rudd has been condemned after Apec for keeping shy of joining in discussions with world leaders about global warming and such, the fact that he was not there as a world leader, his role there should have been only one of guided politeness, using his fluency of Mandarin as part of it, and not as some suggest as a show-off.

It could be said that Rudd’s showing of Curtin’s role in WW2, was not a show-off either, but an effort to show how Curtin and Macarthur talked together as equal tacticians, Curtin at times offering advice, not like Howard with Bush, Howard pathetically over-doing the role of a yes-man, not very fitting between two national leaders.

Spot on Dresdener.The beatification of Kevin would be funny if it wasn't so sincerely held. I've never understood the Labor droogies need to canonise their leaders, and their ability to pull the wool over their own eyes. Their OTT attacks on Howards character suggest to me that they've already got the government they deserve.

The conservatives are certainly throwing a tantrum over their almost certain defeat. Abuse and hyperbole seem all that is left to them now.

What will they do when Australia becomes wall to wall ALP?

Rainier

I'll never eat sausage again.

Did anyone see that telephone poll on that current affairs program that asked viewers if they would vote for John Howard or would not vote for John Howard at the upcoming federal election?

Eighty four percent, 22,750 of the 27,000 respondents, said they would vote for John Howard? So what are the real pollsters asking people? Or who are they asking?

I didn't believe the result, as for the first time in my life I'd responded to one of those things. I sms'd a yes vote on my mobile. I'd always thought these polls only represented the views of people who held strong views.
Maybe they do, but if that's the case then it raises all sorts of questions about the support for Rudd.

Why did I respond?

I am just fed up with the way the media is trying to shove Rudd and his flaws down my throat. I even find myself talking loudly at the tv during some of the more biased coverage. I reckon there are lots of people who share my disgust.

Maybe the indication to be taken from that poll is that people will react against the media attempting to engineer Rudd's election and given an opportunity they'll register their disgust. But then again it might be that only underemployed wealthy conservatives watch channel 9 on tv at 6.30 in the evening and everbody else is working harder and longer because of Workchoices.

This is the election the Coalition has to lose. So for once and for all, Australians will find out how shallow, how inefficient, how bloody hopeless the ALP really is.
Kevin Rudd said he would play with Howards mind, I have never heard such a strange statement from a politician before, and it is obvious that this strangeness has had an effect on the media.
John Howard is the best prime minister we have ever had, he is a statesman with vision and he is far more than the rubbery figure on the opposition bench.

Mickijo, Howard is only interested in Howard and has spent the last 11.5 years knifing everyone else in the back. You need to get a firmer grip on the reality of that and stop whining about the ALP being shallow.

Howard has not made one real reform, nor built any infrastructure, nor made any social reforms to this country in all his years as PM.

I defy you to get past the stupid and still hated GST and find anything else.

Marilyn Shepherd you were writing anti-Howard letters before Howard had a chance to do anything at all. Could you please try to be a little less biased and a little more reasonable?
Thanks.

Keith is another blame the media, blame the polls type of guy. Who else can you blame?

How about the bookies? Who declare the market as unprecedented. If you are a good capitalist you can make a 360% return in a few weeks.

How about the inept Liberal Party who have decided to self destruct?

How about a party that commits $10 billion without consulting treasury or cabinet?

$2 billion on advertising? Not concerned?

Of course you still have the dream team, or dreaming team. Good night, farewell, its over. :)

"Inviting Jesus into our lives is the greatest freedom from fear and uncertainty anyone can get."

Hehe Gibo, religion is the biggest con that ever existed. I don't know
a devout Xtian who does not fear judgement day!

My biggest relief was realising what a crock of nonsense that
those nuns had taught me, when they tried to brainwash me as
a 5 year old.

But I concede, some people need perceived certainty in their
lives, to make them feel better, thats how our minds work.
Homeostasis matters after all.

Whether its really true or not is a whole different question.

Religous leaders and advertising agencies have skillfully
learnt how to manipulate the masses, using hope and fear as
the drivers. No wonder that both do so well in this world!

Ruawke

Have I missed the election? Did I sleep through it or have you merely dream't up the result.

No I don't believe the polls accurately reflect opinion in the electorate.

Yes I do believe the media is fawning and uncritical of Rudd.

Yes I do believe you are counting your chicks...before they lap dance.

Keith can you show me any Australian election in the past 35 years where the opinion polls, (the real ones, you know the guys who make a living at it and who's reputation depends on it) have ever been more than ~1.5% off the final result?

Don't bank on the "when the election is called the polls will close" it has not happened by more than 1% for 35 years.

Howard has actually gone backwards in every election campaign he has contested except 2004 (that is the +1% I mentioned earlier).

The election was lost in May. That is why the Govt is running around looking like chooks with their heads cut off. You may not believe the polls, they do!

Check the fairies at the bottom of your garden. :)

Mickjio your comments are spot on except for one thing: you say 'So for once and for all, Australians will find out how shallow, how inefficient, how bloody hopeless the ALP really is'.

You surely mean 'Rudd' and not the 'ALP' as the ALP has a track record of abysmal economic management.

If the media were honest, and pigs flew, the meeja would have by now reminded the electorate just what a bunch of econo-misfits the ALP was under the pig farmer and earlier under the awful E. G. Whitlam.

The electorate will vote Rudd in with gusto. Maybe.

In 3 years time the people will remove Rudd like a cancerous polyp from its collective bowel. That's for sure.

But of course, by then the damage will have been done.

Hello Pacific Peso.

Jonathan Ariel,

Following the 1999 Victorian election, the press was full of letters from Liberal supporters telling us all that the sky would fall in. The sky did not fall in. Over the next seven years, taxes were cut by more than $2 billion as a percentage of state domestic product, budget surpluses were run every year, the Legislative Council was made more democratic, the auditor-general was enshrined as an officer of the Parliament, 5,193 extra teachers were employed, prep to grade 2 classes were capped at 21 pupils each, thousands of extra nurses and police were employed, academic subjects like history returned to our schools, rigorous reporting to parents was introduced, the ministerial ban on teachers debating educational issues was lifted, $1.4 billion was invested in capital spending on schools, etc. The people of Victoria were so pleased with their new government that they re-elected it in two landslides. The Liberals are so deflated that they couldn’t even be bothered contesting the Albert Park and Williamstown by-elections this weekend.

So there will be no Labor loss in 2010. I believe that Labor will win comfortably this year but not control the Senate, which will therefore reject Labor’s move to repeal WorknotcalledChoicesanymore, which will leave it with no choice but to go to a double dissolution election, which it will win comfortably. If the swing this year is modest (5-6 per cent), there will be another swing to Labor in the double dissolution election. If the swing this year is large, there probably will not be a further swing in the double dissolution election. Labor will then govern successfully for three more years and win the 2011 election as well.

Just as Victorians, having experienced the modern Labor Party, did not want to go back to the Liberals, neither will Australians.

Chris C

There you go - spoiling Ariel's ALP-hating with pertinent facts. Go easy on him, he's obviously not used to facts, and they can hurt.

Frank Gol,

Facts can be such a nuisance. I post them so often in so many places. They normally have no effect. They can’t be answered, but those who hate the Labor Party cannot desist and have to recycle their comments, so I recycle my facts. There is a mistake, however: I should have said “gross state product”, not “state domestic product”.

While I am using up my second contribution in 24 hours, I’ll add some facts from a more immediate angle. I live in the Shire of Nillumbik, part of Melbourne’s Green Wedge. This policy was introduced by the Hamer Liberal Government, but the pleasant nature of my town is now protected by Labor’s urban growth boundary.

When I take the young dog for a walk, I get to see Labor’s infrastructure spending: we can go past the brand new Labor Government-built CFA station, the brand new Labor Government-built primary school and the brand new Labor Government-built police station. If I get in the car, I can drive to the next town for a look at the brand new Labor Government-built ambulance/CFA/police station or I can cross the river to see another brand new Labor Government-built police station. If I went back to my last school, I would see the new Labor Government-built science labs.

Labor’s success is not just figures in a budget: it’s facts on the ground in the lives of many Victorians. There have been mistakes, of course, but we are so fortunate not to have the Liberals in any more. That is why I think Kevin Rudd will be re-elected at least twice: Australia will remain prosperous and free, but the prosperity will be more fairly distributed and there will be more focus on the long term future of the nation.

Any relation?

"Jonathan Ariel is a veteran journalist and former editor of the english edition of Maariv, a leading Israeli daily."
http://web.israelinsider.com/Views/9085.htm

John Winston Howards staunch support for all things Israeli-Likud, including invasion of Lebanon and targeting of civilians, has nothing of course to do with Mr Ariels long string of attacks on Mr Rudd. "Nothing to see here, move long folks, move along.."

Liam

In answer to your question, the answer is No Relation.

I am 41 and the fellow you mention, the 'veteran' foreign affairs reporter, I assume is older.

I am neither a reporter nor a veteran.

Dresdener,what a terrific way to describe Rudd, all sizzle and no sausage. That really hits the spot.
Communicat, Marilyn is only happy when she is wielding her misery, she sounds just like Julia Gillard. Maybe she looks like her too.
And I meant the ALP when I wrote my post, you only have to look at how mismanaged the states are to see how the whole country is going to end up under the Labor care.
There is none so blind as the ALP fanatics. None.

Methinks the Howard groupies are in panic mode....

Jonno; only 41 and so embittered?

Cuppatee/Bex/lie down.

Dear old mickijo!

"There is none so blind as the ALP fanatics. None." I'll bet my last sausage he really believes the world will end if Labor wins. Just like the last time.

Thankyou Jonathan J. Ariel for ID clarification.

According to the author "[I]n 3 years time the people will remove Rudd like a cancerous polyp from its collective bowel."

With his potty mouth and dotty argumentation, I suspect that Mr Ariel is the love-child of Noel Crichton-Brown & Danna Vale.

But apart from that fine pedigree, he has thus far demonstrated no aptitude whatsoever for public writing or, for that matter, coherent discourse.

Oh for the pre-internet days, when the audience for Mr Ariel's ravings could extend no further than earshot of the soap-boxes in the corner of Hyde Park.

Liam

"invasion of Lebanon and targeting of civilians,"

Typical leftie. Have a go at Israel and while your at it throw in the bogey men of nuclear power and GM crops. Just follow fashion, don't develop an understanding of anything, what course did you say you did?

Don't mention hundreds and hundreds of Hezbollah missiles fired at Israel, that's not an invasion of course, or the Darfur (Muslim) refugees fleeing into Israel from Egypt which won't take them.

Make life simple and follow the same crowd. But all the same do vote Howard out of office, the party which cut back on education and foreign language programs and canceled tax cuts for research and development limiting our technological industries which were so carefully nursed by the ALP.

Ruawake,

I haven't see anyone running around like chooks.

But I have seen a bunch of labor people and the media running around like over excited school girls, wetting themselves, over their own lectures, predictions, demands or fairy stories, that they are spinning to the rest of us.

Frank Gol, just what did happen last time Labor was elected to run government? Please tell us in detail just what did happen.

ps. Three words eg "got chucked out" won't do. Please explain.

mickijo,

If I thought you were really interested I'd recommend a large bibliography outlining and discussing positive and negative developments. But you just want to believe the sky fell in and the last 11 and a half years has been one long nirvana. So I won't waste my time.

um.......frank, then you really can't recall anything worth recalling right?
Ok, we'll settle for the three words then.