People I know on Adelaide's far fringes (Gawler, Aldinga) are trying LPG cars and a combination of train and cycling. Not everyone can do this, nor telecommute. In some ways Adelaide is the Las Vegas of the southern hemisphere with no easy options for either water or energy. Due the geological accident of having the world's largest uranium deposit at Roxby Downs I think nuclear option has to be considered for both electricity and desalination. Rann knows this but is waiting for public opinion to shift. Maybe by then battery cars will have an 80km range so they can be charged both at home and at work. The other option is recession.

It is not true that cheap petrol caused the expansion of Australian
cities. Australian cities expanded out of their "London look alike"
design after the Great War in the early 20s when the returning soldiers
purchased houses in the "Far Flung" suburbs.
At the time very few families had cars and the expansion took place
along the rail and tram lines.

So, expansion will continue, other things being equal, with an expansion
of public transport. However I agree that other things may not be equal.

Sorry I truncated it, here it is with the rest;
It is not true that cheap petrol caused the expansion of Australian
cities. Australian cities expanded out of their "London look alike"
design after the Great War in the early 20s when the returning soldiers
purchased houses in the "Far Flung" suburbs.
At the time very few families had cars and the expansion took place
along the rail and tram lines.

So, expansion will continue, other things being equal, with an expansion
of public transport. However I agree that other things may not be equal.

I can forsee a system where public transport radiates out in a star
formation and market gardens are between the arms of the star.
This would put the food supply almost within walking distance and
certainly within bicycle range.
Local industry could also be between the arms of the public transport.

Great idea Bazz. I like it! Unfortunately, there's major stumbling block and it's got nothing to do with your idea. It's that neither the Coalition or Labor will admit we have a looming problem with energy resources and actually offer something positive which will mitigate the massive human crises resulting from the end of cheap oil. The time to act is right now! It will take at least 20 years to implement the technology and infrastructure requires to ease us through the transitional period after the era of abundant and cheap oil. Presently, I don't hear one word form either major party concerning this issue, but there could be good reason for this that has nothing to do with scaring the people or causing a depression.

Michael, you said in your article that neither our political or business leaders want to believe we're approaching the end of growth due to our dependence on cheap oil, but I'm not too sure about this. I tend to think it's more a case of......"Lets grab all we can and set up a future for ourselves. Bugger the commoners! We'll be right with all our wealth and an unimaginably huge army of displaced beggars to provide food and comfort for us."

The US style of employment is just one step away from slave labor and since Howard is in the pocket of the US, well.... you get the picture. Makes one realise just what work (non) choices is really all about doesn't it? The Australian worker won't have any choice once the cost of fuel to get to work and provide a living has eclipsed the income required to sustain their meager lifestyles.

You've got to be kidding.The other day I travelled from Penrith to Neutral Bay and it cost me a lot more in road tolls than fuel.When are our Govts going to take responsibility for infrastructure and services?

Why are the politicians saying nothing about Peak Oil? Because they dont know what to say. Or more correctly, they dont know what to say that the public and press will accept. There is no business-as-usual solution to Peak Oil and the answer must be radical (and brave, Minister!)

Any consideration of the Peak Oil numbers will strongly suggest that a system of rationing will be brought in one day. The sooner a system is quietly started, the less of a problem there will be. It could be brought in in much the same way as new security laws are brought in under the guise of anti-terrorism.

An excellent candidate for a rationing systems is Tradeable Energy Quotas. It is attractive because it is equitable and the problem of motivation and self interest is built in. It is largely automatic and hands off. See it at http://www.teqs.net/

I find it strange that when peak oil enters the minds of commentators, especially those with a science background, they automatically worry about driving around. Maybe it's to do with the security of any academic tenure.

Here's my summary again: ITAS "it's the assets, stupid".

When a peak is finally recognised (and I don't know if it's happened or not) oil prices will rise, food prices will rise, inflation will rise, interest rates will rise and lots of jobs will be in question. (I wouldn't like to be selling wheat grass juice, or be a teacher in a private school when oil is $155/bbl). The proportion of the household budget spent on petrol, interest and food will increase. Asset prices will start to fall dramatically and lots of people will find they have negative equity in their homes (BTW the sub-prime issues are oil related). That wealth "defect" will flow into the rest of the economy.

Getting to work will be the least of many peoples worries. Having a house or a job will be.

Spot on. Not wanting to sound totally alarmist but we're screwed -- there is no plan B to replace oil (anyone interested should have a look at http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html). Government, and by extension us, have allowed development to continue based on the "fact" that oil is and will be cheap and plentiful.

Well it isn't. There needs to be an absolute change in the way we live and its coming whether we like it or not

isn't it interesting how ozzies expect someone else to 'do something'. i expect it comes from growing up on a society where almost everyone can do nothing. what's the use in saying "we must do this or that", when you can do nothing?

pollies will eventually do things: look out for themselves, chiefly by using public money to bribe campaign supporters.

google 'direct democracy arizona' and find out how citizens can do things. we could do that too, but it needs large scale getting off of backsides. prognosis not good.

I look forward to OnLine Opinion publishing more ideas about what can be done about rising fuel prices, as well as sounding alarms.
Most articles going up on opinion e-magazines concentrate on alerting people about problems. We need an equal number about solutions.

It is not allowed to get into general discussions here about what can be done, for example, cutting the production of waste, which uses so much oil, or I would.

Arjay:
As the toll roads go broke the government will take them over.
In the US there is a plan to close one side and install light or heavy rail.

Michael Dwyer:
Spot on the pollies do not want to talk about it.
I sent an email to both major parties.
The Liberal answer was a waffle and the Labour party did not answer.

PeterJH:
You might be right about the debt crisis being peak oil related
but I hope not. I suspect it is rather too soon for that.
It is probably other causes as they are still on good industry figures.

Charger:
Electricity will be the only sure source, or at least the last
source standing. I believe in the long run it will be a mixture of
grid and roll your own.

Ozideas:
Ideas are easy, practical application rather more difficult.
Also the scale of the prblem is so large that individual action that
will affect the whole field is almost impossible.
Thats why the pollies are needed on side.
You can help yourself but it doesn't go far.

A wonderful bunch of ideas, most of them fairly practical, can be found here:

http://www.oilendgame.com/

Reducing oil consumption in the short term will string out supplies, prepare consumers for shortages, and delay the pain resulting from high prices. In the long term there are plenty of alternatives and we will cheerfully use whatever is cheapest.

The Rocky Mountain Institute study liked above is a bit bullish on hydrogen; but really that's the only part of their argument that depends on technology that isn't already practical -- and they deliberately leave it to last in any case. Microturbines, internal-combustion hybrids and battery-electric vehicles can already deliver most of the efficiency improvements they hope to achieve with hydrogen fuel cells.

It is political will (and the "will" of the market) which is lacking today, and which is bound to emerge sooner rather than later. As soon as major governments and companies are prepared to announce peak oil, the efficiency gold rush is on.

Go back 70-100 years, lots of people still lived in villages,
on their quarter-half acre blocks. They grew a few veggies, had
a few chooks and some fruit trees. The kids cycled or walked to
school, dad worked not far from home. People focussed on the
local. Energy consumption per family would have been quite low.

No reason we can't go back to that, high density living only
causes even greater problems.

But the market will sort that out, not Govts. As fuel goes up
in price, people will seek employment a little closer to home,
etc. etc.

"As fuel goes up in price, people will seek employment a little closer to home,etc. etc."

NO THEY WON'T, people will seek employment in armies, killing dopey consumers that the Generals may Maintain THEIR CURRENT lifestyles.

No one with a brain will go backwards if they don't have to and government armies won't have fuel to save anything but a small fraction of Yabby look-alikes.

No one really knows why Rome fell or why we had WWI&II. There are lots of theories but we don't really know why. But we are about to find out unless we stop immigration and boost technology to cope with ageing populations.

People are sick of the prioritisation of ECONOMIC GROWTH and POLITICAL POWER IMMIGRATION (Beatie, Howard, Iemma) over the future of our fragile desert nation. This practice according to Noam Chomsky (Manufacturing Consent) only serves the top 10% of global economic elites whose wealth is predominantly based oil, food, media and very soon gambling and water stocks. That top 10% call this practice global economics when in reality it is global consumer farming. After consumers have been fattened up with wealth and 8 billion people try to fit in a 2025 world without oil, some 6 billion people will be ready for the abbatoirs. If 2billion people could coexist on coal in 1890 then that numner again will have to coexist AFTER 2025.

If anyone here thinks that under circumstances of imposed poverty from energy sources peaking, that we will show higher moral standards than those in Rwanda and Darfur they are badly mistaken.

And a tip for the savvy investor in the current consumer farming global economy: invest in hammers and clubs!@!

"No one with a brain will go backwards"

Hehe Kaep, I'm not sure of your age, but you are a bad observer
or philosopher :)

When kids are young, they think they know everything, head for the
big cities and bright lights, where all the so called action is.
They are going to conquer the world.

When they get to 40, they suddenly realise that they are on a treadmill,
peddling away furiously, paying huge mortgages etc,
but still not really happy.

When they get to their 50s and 60s, huge numbers that can afford
it, are becoming sea changers and tree changers. Look around you,
businessmen and politicians, buying country retreats, to breed
horses, grow grapes, whatever. They need to escape, what they now
understand as the ratrace.

They become grey nomads or potter around in the garden.

So what was forwards and what was backwards? :)

A.P.E.C. (Agrification of Political and Economic Consumerisation):

Achieving with Windows and Wordprocessors what H-Bombs never could.

... since the discussion has sunk thus far already ...

Tips for savvy investors prior to economic collapse:
(scroll down, laughing all the way)

http://energybulletin.net/23259.html

"Consumer farming", qv Vivoleum:

http://www.google.com/search?q=vivoleum

"If anyone here thinks that under circumstances of imposed poverty from energy sources peaking, that we will show higher moral standards than those in Rwanda and Darfur they are badly mistaken."

Well we have an idea, like on Easter island, where people turned
to cannibalism in the end.

But alot of this is a religious problem. The Catholic Church is
convinced we should cram ever more humans onto the planet and
actively encourage that to happen. Catholic commandoes were burning
condoms in Rwanda, before the proverbial cr*p hit the fan.

If it was up to me, I would charge the pope with environmental
degredation :)

Meantime its cities who will be the first to face major problems.
Cut the power to a city and see what happens. Those who quite
happily live in the country, like me, are clearly the smart ones :)

Or you have Europe, the NE USA etc, all depending on Arabs and Russians to keep warm, as they burn ever more expensive oil and
gas. For me, there is plenty of firewood out there, even a bit
of land to grow some biodiesel.

We in Aus are pretty lucky really, we have all these options that
others don't have.

Did anyone else notice a comment made by John Howard on the ABC the
other night quote;

expressed concern about global warming and "energy security" .
Whichever way you look at it it had to be a code word for peak oil.
I have heard Peter Costello say similar things but this is the first
time I have heard the PM even hint at fuel problems.

I don't get it.

If you believe John Howard about the Australian economy, then If the Captain had ferried more and more passengers onto Titanic before it hit the Iceberg then the boat's cash registers would have turned over more and they would have had enough money to stop the ship sinking after the iceberg tore a hole in its side.

Isn't that exactly John Howard's view of the Australian economy as it approaches a 2025 collision with peak oil? Stuff 160,000 migrants every year mercilessly into the 5 big Australian capitals and collect more taxes so we can use it in the last death throes of Peak Oil. I can assure everyone reading this, that money will lose its value rapidly, well before Peak Oil climaxes. Probably within the next 10 years. The key marker will be when petrol prices rise to $10 per litre. The last thing Australia needs then is millions more energy-hungry violent aspirational voting migrants in sardine-can cites to deal with. It would make Rwanda look like a Sunday school picnic.

And If my posts, showing up Howard's continuing foppish dishonesty, personally cause him to lose his Bennelong seat will he be able to sue me for loss of earnings? Under Howard's newest legislation, loss of earnings due to another's free speech being believed, sets that author up to be sued at no cost to the litigant by your and my favourite reluctant-dragon agency, the ACCC.

You can bet your life the ACCC will be able to do for politicians what it never could do or wanted to do for consumers.

Is the oil going to run out in our lifetimes? Knowing the Bible, I would have to say probably not. Once upon the whole earth was a hothouse and green was everywhere (thats a huge amount of green matter...global rainforest bigger than we can imagine). If we read Genesis chapter 2 verse 6... "but streams came up from the earth and watered the whole surface of the ground" (NIV). King James version says "a mist came up" and wet everything. Genesis 1 talks about an expanse separating the waters below from the waters above and that this expanse was called sky. Here we see atmosphere between the waters below and the waters above creating a water canopy or a bubble above the earth. When God flooded the earth, down came the waters above and from then on we have an open sky with no waters above... in pouring the UV etc. and deserts beginning to form through a lack of the mist. I really believe that there is plenty of oil down there, its just that the whole of the earth is under a timetable, Gods timetable, and we are simply running out of that time. If you know your Bible you can see time wrapping up. Most of the oil will probably go to 1. wars and conflicts and national resistances as sinful man clashes with sinful man; and to 2. disasters. Luke chapter 21 I use a lot because it tells of the last days and gives a vision of time running out according to a timetable. Revelation likewise adds to this vision. The oil is there but we wont pump it out in time and what is available will go to those two events.

Oh Gibo; I don't think you have to worry about the extremes of
the earths history and future.
It is quite simple really. There is a certain amount of oil under the
ground and most of the easy to get out oil has been used and now we
are after the rest. It will cost more to get out and it will not come
out as fast, but it will be coming out for a long time yet.
It will just cost a lot more and will have to be rationed in one way
or another.
So you can forget your biblical worries and just for starters buy a
smaller car next time.