Some factors in a shift away from Liberals, apart from Tampa, are the four "H"'s:

HOWARD
HICKS
HANEEF
HUBRIS

How can you say: “The Coalition’s support has literally ebbed away”, Graham? Are you really claiming “without exaggeration or inaccuracy” that support for the Coalition has gone, or are you just guilty of a little carelessness of expression?

There is every chance that the ALP will form a government after the election. Nothing to do with polls; everything to do with a PM who should have retired at least 18 months ago and with a group of younger voters who have never been consciously aware (because of age, not intelligence I hasten to add) of suffering under an economically illiterate ALP government.

'Local representatives’ have become a total waste of space as we have moved to a presidential style of government, where party leaders seem to be hogging the limelight. As a conservative, I have to admit that Rudd comes over much better than Howard and seems to be a decent bloke, in so far as a politician can be decent.

However, total idiot though my federal Liberal member is, I will put my first vote against his name simply to try keeping the ALP out. Most people, apart from first time voters, obviously, will vote the same way they always vote when push comes to shove. Forget the polls. The swingers and, perhaps, new voters will decide, as usual.

My guess is that whichever party gains power, they will still have the usual slim majority over the losers: the enthusiasm with which media commentators embrace wild predictions of the end of the Coalition is over the top.

It must also be remembered that the economy rules supreme when the moment of voting finally arrives. The hoo ha about other issues comes from people who are Howard-haters and would never vote for a Coalition government anyway.

This article is well reasoned and worthy of serious reflection.

I believe the reason many are considering a change is that everyone seems to be exhausted. Even among familes on well above average incomes it is becoming a necessity for both parents to work, dash around day in day out to child care centres and spend far too much time just getting to and from work. The fathers I know are working longer and longer hours and bring work home with them. This is exhausting and the constant message from the Liberals is that we all need to work harder still and everyone should really be working full time. If wealthier families are struggling to find time to spend together and still pay off the mortgage then I cannot see how everyone else is doing it without a lot of tension and sacrifices in the household. It is no point telling people they are better off than ever when it is obvious to everyone that something important has been lost on the way. Money isn't everything.

It's a lot of baseless speculation. You can tell that the authour is not thinking about what he's writing since he says the support is "literally ebbing away". Support can not actually ebb, it can only figuratively ebb, since ebbing is for tides. This misuse of a metaphor shows the authour's not really considering his words.

Christians are less materialistic than anyone else? Men don't like anti-domestic violence adverts? What nonsense.

Howard's support is falling away because people are sick of him personally, and because none of his ministers help the matter. They're disliked personally. Labor will win not from any virtues of its own, but from default.

Notice that the authour makes no mention of party policies it's in this omission that he speaks the most truth. That's because the differences are imperceptible in practice. The ALP just nods along with whatever the Coalition suggests. People are just basically sick of Howard, Costello and Downer and so on. They're tired of being lied to, tired of seeing house and food prices rise and looking for a job and being told we've never had it so good. Tired of having our civil liberties restricted in the name of protecting us from a threat that simply doesn't exist here. Tired of having work protections taken from us. We're tired of being ignored.

When the people are no longer listened to by their elected representatives, the people give them a message they can't ignore - they sack them. People aren't moving to Labor or the Greens or any other party because they think they're the best party, but because they're the least worst. That's why Rudd's taken the tack he has - to be as inoffensive and harmless as possible.

Policies? What are they? What have policies got to do with politics?

Among the many plausible reasons being touted in forecasting a loss by the Howard Government at the end of this year, the one that gets least space is the fact that Howard will almost certainly not serve out a full term.

This means that voters will be aware that a vote for the Coalition is a vote for Peter Costello (or Malcolm Turnbull or Tony Abbot or Sir Alexander Downer or one of the Bishops or Bill Heffernan or...write your own choice). Any of these prospects are scarier than a dessicated coconut.

So young Kevin, a Kirribilli lovechild, looks so much more sensible. Notice how relaxed and comfortable he is?