The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
The Forum - On Line Opinion's article discussion area



Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Main Articles General

Sign In      Register

The Forum > Article Comments > Economic growth to end soon - forever > Comments

Economic growth to end soon - forever : Comments

By Michael Lardelli, published 3/5/2007

With energy still cheap, we should seize the opportunity to prepare for an eventful ride down the slippery slope of energy decline.

  1. Pages:
  2. Page 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. 4
  6. 5
  7. 6
  8. All
There it is in a nutshell - plain and simple.

I think the thing that staggers me most is the realisation that the "Captains of Industry" - the oh-so disdainful, overpaid, born to rule, universe ruling, entepreneurial, lap-top totin', long-lunched, limo-ridin', mansion building, polly-lobbying, power-grabbing, privatising, share market playing, media owning - DRONGOS -

- don't have a brain between them.

In their death throes, they will struggle to stay afloat on the flotsam of their beloved, but ultimately imaginary world. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a few of these dinosaurs proposed nuclear power stations for Australia, as a way of prolonging their over-extended tenure.
Posted by Chris Shaw, Carisbrook 3464, Thursday, 3 May 2007 9:38:20 AM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
For many years now I have been astonished about our series of federal treasurers’ focus on growth. There is always a limit to growth in anything. And yet, economic growth seemed in their eyes to be the exception.

Our economy is based on excessive consumption. The population has no idea how to live in an economy which was not so based. Talk of sustainable living is mostly fantasy as the concept is beyond the understanding of 99% of the population.

Decline is inevitable. When the peak oil position is passed we will have increasing unemployment - and 90% employment or above is the one thing keeping a society from becoming violent.

So - what is going to happen when we go into the inevitable decline? We will have social breakdown
Posted by healthwatcher, Thursday, 3 May 2007 10:01:35 AM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
I've followed the peak oil risk for a few years now. A couple of worthwhile books are The End of Oil and The Party's Over. Neither are barrow pushers.

I'm in two minds about the threats of PO. If there is a fast decay (due to over-estimates of reserves) then all bets are off: it's back to the 1800's very quickly. However if oil peaks then plateaus there will be a breather of a few years to allow adjustments and find substitutes although economic growth will fall to negative. Sure 4WDs will be taboo and we will learn the value of plastics (and fertilizers, herbicides etc) but we will adapt.

As an economist my concern is with inflation. PO will force energy prices up as markets chase a diminishing commodity. The flow-on will be more expensive fuel, manufactured goods and foods. Inflation will rise at a time of diminishing economic growth and pressure on jobs especially and initially in the luxury areas of consumption: entertainment, tourism, purchased services like private schooling, to reference just a few areas. Eventually all areas will be affected. Interest rates will rise as lenders demand a real return, so further pressure on households. So I think where we are most exposed to a PO crisis (or any other oil crisis like the market's reaction to an attack on Iran) is our level of household debt. We 'survived' the 70's shocks and high inflation/interest rates due to a much lower level of leverage. We don't have the luxury today.

By the way, for those who say the 'market will adjust', yes it will, with the effects described above. But the market can only adjust so far where a resource goes into decline. Oil ain't bananas: we wont be saved next season. Also, yes there are deep reserves but when the energy cost of recovering them is greater than their benefit they will be left in the ground awaiting some new discovery in technology.

The final unknown is when oil will peak. Maybe it was in 2005, maybe not till 2020ish. Interesting times ahead.
Posted by PeterJH, Thursday, 3 May 2007 11:42:09 AM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
With respect to what Chris's comment, I disagree on two counts.

Firstly, there's quite a few "captains of industry" who realise what's going on and are trying to do something about the problem. However it's inherently difficult because of tremendous demand, and momentum, and apathy among a great number of consumers. Also, maximum energy acquisition seems to be very hardwired in all living beings. That's not the fault of any industrialist in particular.

Secondly, the rich always do well. They won't get wiped out. I think it's the poor who will get the rough end of the pineapple when the economy contracts. They always do. The rich are usually the ones who have the skills and the means to adapt best to change. Wealth works like that, and that's what's so galling for every consumer with a mortgage like me. There may be revolutions in certain places, but they will not be Marxist in nature. Do you really want one? Please don't wish that upon anyone. Read your history books and tell me honestly you would want this to happen...

If there is someone to blame, blame the consumer. That's all of us, buddy. And ultimately it's the consumers who will get wiped out, as there is less left to consume.

A lot of what happens in this world is "emergent". There is no-one in charge, and no-one to blame. When you realise that, it's quite liberating, and it might empower you to make a difference yourself.

If you're interested, also google the following terms:

"oil depletion protocol"
"dimitri orlov"
"james howard kunstler"
Posted by Feedle dee, Thursday, 3 May 2007 1:23:58 PM
Find out more about this user Visit this user's webpage Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
This sort of assumes that we sit back and do nothing, or can do nothing about our energy use and needs.

Energy would become more expensive and there may be an economic hit, a recession probably, but it won't be the end of the world. The are alternative fuels - solar, geo, wind, nuclear, coal etc. While these would cost more they would keep the wheels turning.

If we want to take some positive action we could progressively and incrementally tax oil more now so that other fuels would be increasingly competitive.

If we revert to the 1800s we would need more horses for more people, and the carbon emitted by so many horses rear ends would probably kill us all.
Posted by westernred, Thursday, 3 May 2007 2:54:45 PM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
Onya Mike, keep saying it and folks will get it eventually (handy thing about a functional worldview, it proves itself).
Feedle dee, interesting comments, disagree with slating responsibility back home to 'consumers'. Obviously they fund the megadeath in Iraq, Nigeria, Columbia etc one way or another and ask no questions at the pump, but there are also real individuals 'making a difference' who have to bear a greater part of the responsibility. I'm thinking here of ExxonMobils past and present CEOs (aggressive oil depletion deniers) and Yergin & co at CERA, who deserve jail time for stock fraud if nothing else.
Posted by Liam, Thursday, 3 May 2007 5:26:30 PM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
  1. Pages:
  2. Page 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. 4
  6. 5
  7. 6
  8. All

About Us :: Search :: Discuss :: Feedback :: Legals :: Privacy