Excellent set of comments and observations Michael. The key point is indeed (as others have already said) not when PO occurs as the fact that it will occur like a creeping paralysis (I work with disability) that will gradually draw a blanket of negative EROEI over all of our cherished presumptions pf prosperity and capacity for change. Arjay's statement about 'doom & gloom merchants', the prospects of solar energy and his question 'what is our problem?' appears typical of those who seem blind optimism as a virtue. As anyone can see, the problem is not that something could be done but in the doing! The scale of the task in keeping 'project civilization' alive and intact that is facing both current and future generations is almost unimaginable. Beyond 'how much oil do we have left', the key factors determining success in this project will gradually become 'sustainable population carrying capacity' and ability to share technology and wealth across cultural and economic divides. The great problem I see in statements like Arjays is that they betray no understanding at all that plentiful cheap oil in the West has been - in terms of both economic & energetic benefit - an almost entirely one way deal. The West has derived many times over compared to most 'source' nations. That should be obvious! Our assumed technological success and lifestyle in Australia is propped up by the sweat, blood and pauperism of millions elsewhere! Arjay needs to ask himself seriously if ideas like a 'solar economy' are really going to be achieved when our 'economic partners' in the oil-producing (often 3rd world) countries start to withdraw their cooperation on this deal (this is manifesting now as 'oil nationalism'). If he decides that it is achievable then fine - go for it. If not, please don't accuse others of peddling 'doom & gloom'. As Thomas Hardy said, 'if a way to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst'.

On 6th May, being interested in the reaction of our politicians to Peak Oil, I sent the following email - "PEAK OIL

Whatever one might want to believe "Peak Oil" is either here or will be within 20-25 years at the latest. The forecasts from various individuals, organisations and governments generally agree with the 0-25 year period.

With the approaching election. and bearing in mind the generally unfortunate predilection of most politicians to live in the short term, I like to believe that in the case of peak oil the future will be of concern. I will therefore appreciate receiving information on what you, and/or the party you respond to, plan to do to cope with the immense disruption caused by a decreasing oil supply.

There is no option but to have a plan (or no plan) to deal with less oil or face a disastrous situation affecting virtually everything we do. Bear in mind that alternatives could take decades to put in place.

Please note that you are not in my electorate but I do hope that this email will cause some thoughtfulness which I will appreciate receiving. I am certainly not the only individual in Australia that is interested in your plan (s).

This decline of oil should be an issue on which a vote may be cast for a certain policy because if you get it wrong all departments of government will be unable to function as normal."

Their interest was "overwhelming" - one reply only received and that in 20 minutes, from Senator Christine Milne. If you want Christine Milne's 36 page document which includes the oil problem please email me at arnold1@chariot.net.au

Arnold