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Fresh debate in Israel : Comments
By Graham Cooke, published 7/3/2007The Mecca Agreement comes at a momentous time for both sides in the Middle East conflict.
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Every time these people get together they can only see the future in terms of the past - hence the interminable references to "1967 boundaries" and "when the Israeli state was set up in 1948".
This, and every other dispute like it, follows the Northern Ireland model. It often seems that the world for them has not changed since the Battle of the Boyne 316 years ago, or the Potato Famine 160 years ago, both of which feature strongly in any discussion on "the Troubles".
There is a well-known and understood convention in business called "sunk costs", in which the value of any prior investment in a project should be set to zero, whenever there is discussion about the future. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost
If we can train people to understand the concept - that the borders of 1967 or the potato famine of 1847 are utterly irrelevant to a decision on the future, and that the only consideration should be "how do we get there from here" - progress in negotiations over how folks can accommodate each other's different aspirations will improve dramatically.
Every time one party or the other refers to an unavenged grievance, such as the indiscriminate massacre of the inhabitants of Jerusalem in 1099, all possibility of sensible compromise disappears.
What we are inevitably left with is a win-or-lose attitude, which will, just as inevitably, sow the seeds of the next round of violence, sometime next week, next year or next century.