Sounds a little over the top....Panic Stations!

Cribb has been flogging purple science for more than two decades. Note how there is not a single positive effect in all the things he describes. Nature ALWAYS has winners and losers but don't ever expect the Climate Cretins to mention anything but bad news.

The ocean acidity theory is entirely dependent on an assumed maximum depth of CO2 mixing of only 100m. Average ocean depth is 4000m so these guys have come up with a neat little scare story that squeezes all the CO2 into only 2.5% of the ocean. This conveniently, and selectively, ignores the well documented evidence on thermohaline circulation of the oceans which suggests that it takes about 400 years for the complete circulation of the worlds oceans.

And this means that any projection out to even 50 years must assume that CO2 is being mixed in with 50/400 parts of total ocean volume. And this 12.5% is five times more volume than the 2.5% used by the UK Royal Society. And that means the level of ocean acidity will only be 20% as bad as what they claim.

That is why we call it Gullible Warming. But if you have nothing better to do than wallow in angst then fine, but you'll go blind.

Yes after reading over some of Cribb's previous pieces he certainly favours alarmism based on little or no science....

There is no evidence of greenhouse or runaway global warming. There is no evidence for runaway sea level rises or ice cap melting. What we are observing are media blow-ups of changes well within the limits of variability of Earth's thermodynamics.

It will be at least 100 years before the Flat Earth style global warming consensus even begins to be properly tested. But by 2025, a population approaching 8billion plus a grinding down of oil reserves will lead to a global holocaust between haves and have-nots that will see up to 5 billion people killed to maintain economic growth and national securities. Thus Vested corporate interests must be a part of the scientific scrutiny of Climate Change and scientists on their payroll should be ignored for the good of mankind.

Coporate media ownership propaganda males greenhouse warming the Mack&Myer-for-hire scientific consesus just as Catholic inquisitions madeFlat Earth the European scientific consensus for centuries.

This is a disaster for oceans which are the GRAVITAS of Biosphere thermodynamics and thus of the Climate Change problem. If it is insurance to stop CO2 emissions it MUST also be insurance to clean up wastewater discharges.

The proof is about to unfold in this year's US hurricane season. After May 2006 the US was warned in a popular public forum that high-entropy wastewater discharges from US ports were attracting Low-entropy hurricane formations to populated areas. Subsequently SHA(sea height anomaly) maps showed significant retractions in coastal wastewater plumes, SST maps showed a sudden drop in surface temperatures and hurricanes were forced to track the deep Atlantic.

Right now the SHA maps are showing record pollution discharges from US ports. Thus when the US starts to rein them in after May (as they have $100billion reasons) they will stand out for proper scientific evaluation. That will reaffirm that climate change is caused by Human coastal demographics with respose times in wastewater outputs of only about 2-7 days.

The Mackay cyclone within the next month could be stopped if Aussie scientists snapped out of their capitalist stupor.

Ah, what joy there is in science, and involvement in grand experiments!
And Julian points us to the grandest one of all. One where the best laid hypothesis of all the Kings'/Presidents' scientists can not be guaranteed. Because - we are conducting a "work in progress" and there is no absolute certainty in our time; only a variable scale of probabilities.
And what does it matter anyway? Why worry - when the world's economic system is running on the grandest of all pyramid schemes. One where, whatever problems may be developing, we take the profits now, at the expense of those coming into the scheme. No conscience-bothering needed - whatever the problems, they will be distributed among an expanding number of people. The individual burden will be spread more widely. Six and a half billion people incapable of handling their problesm? If we reach thirteen billion, maybe each of us will have half a problem? Yeah, not to worry - carry on with the current experiment!
So what if the oceans are kaput! - we can look to our fish-protein needs from farmed catfish and carp. If the rivers don't run dry; if disease does not strike at monoculture fish-farms. Or if sea-floor clathrates and the great peat-bogs don't burp their methane into the atmosphere; etc..
Let it roll on, the grandest experiment Homo sapiens has ever conducted! Be skeptical of certainty! That great mass of scientists can only base their models on the best available evidence, which may not be perfect.
But, most of all, be skeptical of those professing certainty in their skepticism!
As ordinary mortals, we are told that pyramid schemes are illegal. Doesn't it then follow that we should be skeptical of those in charge of the economic system when the model they choose is no more than pyramid selling? One dependent upon ever-lasting growth of human numbers, and everlasting increase in individual consumption? Shouldn't we, when they seem to profess even greater certainty than the climate skeptics?

Oceans are in peril... this article talks about one aspect being effect of CO2... what the author missed was the 'acid-base buffer' aspect of it which the following article fills in, and keeping in mind that once buffers are saturated then ph changes dramatically resulting in cell death of all life forms in the sea, so if we keep producing co2 rapidly then its only a question of time before saturation point is reached...

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=169

The other factors mentioned like toxins, fertilizer, heavy metals etc and result like accelerated algae growth sucking most of the 02 out of the water, over fishing all exist. The fundamental issue is do they as a whole affect life at sea right now and if so are the life forms in the sea struggling... And the answer is yes, just look at what happened to inland seas with its 'limited water mass' like aral, caspian and dead sea and the damage was predicted but commercialism took precedence and now little life and no fishermen and 'no nothing to say' by the rogue 'scientists' whom pooh poohed the predictions at the time eg http://java.nationalgeographic.com/studentatlas/clickup/inlandseas.html

Yes the insignificant plankton, but when viewed as a whole the planktons serve a fundamental function, from our perspective the largest supplier of oxygen (this was discovered about the 70s when the question arose of how much of our forrest can we cut without affecting o2 while the eyes were looking at the amazon forests...) yep the same unbalanced self interest is what got us all into this mess, those who damaged for quick benefit and the rest of us who did not act to stop it...

Sam

Ah Perseu. Perseus, Perseus, Perseus.

How are you? I am fine.

Obviously you've forgotten our little discussion about ocean acidification a while ago. You remember right?

To recap, the ocean acidification hypothesis does not, repeat not, rely on the assumption of no mixing into middle ocean depths. I gave whole host of page references and direct citations supporting this.

See the Royal society report page 9 and 10, where it actually shows the measured and modeled ocean acidification to a depth of greater than 4km! Also see Calderia and Wickett 2003.

Please, if you are going to make claims such as the one you made in this post, read the relevant literature to see if your claims have any basis.

To recap, the ocean acidification hypothesis is not, repeat not, anything other than a hypothesis.

The Royal society, Calderia and Wickett (2003) all make untested assumptions. The greatest of these assumptions is that they 'know' every physical, biological and chemical REACTION that occurs in all planetary ocean 3-space. THEY DON'T!

As it stands and as I have pointed out, it will take at least 100 years to test their hypothesis. Well within that time we are going to see a far worse tragedy many orders of magnitude worse than any imaginable climate change as nepotistic elitist elements (corporations, republicans and dynasties) of mankind destroy at least 5/8ths of his fellow man out of fear, greed and opportunism when oil stocks run dry. It won't take 100 years to prove this hypothesis. The Iraq, Iran, Syria and Nth Korean conflagrations over scarce oil supplies, a population expected to be around 8 billion by 2025 and US corp[orate takeovers of every major asset on the planet(including Quantas and the Snowy if Howard gets elected) indicate we are 1/3 of the way to Armageddon already. By contrast, climate change hypotheses are running in the sub 1% range, well within natural variability. They are hardly worthy of being called speculation, the research for which is every bit just a global corporate takeover of scientific institutions and thought.

After the 2025 armageddon, the oceans will get a reprieve from human despoilation. So perhaps their is a Social dimension to Le Chatelier's principle of chemical reaction resistance as well! This is something that the Royal society, backed by the British aristocracy, one of the biggest profiteering corporations, in the world is rather UNKEEN to research.

In short, don't worry about ocean acidity, just keep your eyes on the SHA map anomalies spewing out of the big US ports and watch them disappear along with landstrike hurricane after May.

Why? Because that's where the MONEY is!!

To view SHA maps use this link http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod/work/trinanes/INTERFACE/index.html, choose a date, a region from the cameo global map and press GO.
Data goes back to 1993 for time sequence comparison analysis.

From the "Royal Society" report that is cited ocean acidification isn't a major worry:

EFFECTS OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ON MICROORGANISMS
The evidence considered in Section 3.2 suggests that the
increase of CO2 in the surface oceans expected by 2100 is
unlikely to have any significant direct effect on
photosynthesis or growth of most micro-organisms in the
oceans.

EFFECTS OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ON MULTICELLULAR ANIMALS
In the short term (20–40 years), projected increases in
atmospheric CO2 will produce minor impacts on
multicellular marine animals.

EFFECTS OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ON CALCIFICATION
the lack of a clear understanding of the
mechanisms of calcification and its metabolic or
structural function means that it is difficult, at present,
to reliably predict the full consequences of CO2-induced
ocean acidification on the physiological and ecological
fitness of calcifying organisms.

A bit more work to do before proclaiming the end is nigh....

Overfishing is probably the biggest problem faced by our oceans today and one which should be addressed. The tenuous CO2 links to ocean warming, acidification and methane "burps" should be filed under "yet to be confirmed as plausible"

I have been trying to find that thread again Chris C but my recollection is that you supplied a load of bollocks masquerading as reference material. Do sent it again if you want.

Chris C, this quote from P9 of the RC report says it all.

"The simplest estimate, takes a situation where human CO2 emissions continue to be released on current trends; considers the surface oceans as a single ‘box’ at a constant temperature (25 oC) and salinity with an initial (pre-industrial) pH of 8.2 units, and assumes no mixing with the deeper oceans. Under these circumstances it is predicted that pH will fall to below 7.9 by 2100 (Zeebe
and Wolf-Gladrow 2001)."

The other more complex modelling projects out 400 years and is of little relevance to current projections. The assumption of constant temperature is also quite suss.

Hi Persues,

The next paragraph on (pg 9 and 10) explains the use of the Lawerence-Livermore General Ocean Circulation model, down to 4km. The simpler model was referenced, but the more complicated modelling was used for the basis of projections in the report (see the summary page vi). The results of the more complicated modeling in the simple modeling are actually quite close for shorter (<100 years) time scales.

As another poster pointed out, the report clearly states that "Research into the impacts of high concentrations of CO2 in the oceans is in its infancy and needs to be developed rapidly". The Royal Society report, and indeed, ocean acidification, are not the largest of worries in the ocean.

My own concern is the crash of vital fish stocks (much like the documented crash of North Atlantic Cod), and the damage wrought to coral reefs from a variety of causes (not just warmer oceans, but also pest introduction, like certain star fish, water polution etc...). However, ocean acidification may adversly affect the ability to certain species to recover.

As stated in pages 21-22 and 25 of the RS report, it is expected that decreased pH will result in slower calcification rates, and the exposure of certain creatures to increased stress.

The world's oceans (are coral reefs in particular) are already in enough trouble without climate change or increasing acidifation adding to the problems.

CYCLONE Odette headed for Mackay.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Qld-communities-on-cyclone-alert/2007/03/03/1172868804069.html

As predicted on March 1st on this thread and 2 months earlier on other threads!

However, the current SHA map shows the wastewater pollution plume (blue, low SHA coastal anomaly) attractor zone has shifted in the last few days to more around the Navy complex at Shoalwater Bay some distance Sth of Mackay.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/trinanes/tmp/sha1172958794.gif (map expires after 2 days so make a copy or generate a new map at this link http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod/work/trinanes/INTERFACE/index.html)

Stay tuned!

Additional cyclone news.

Cyclone George is currently cleaning out the JB Gulf off the Nthn Territory http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200703/s1862333.htm

There are two mild SHA wastewater anomalies coming from the Argyle and Victoria rivers that appear to be attracting this regional event. George is expected to move SW into the Indian Ocean and this fits well with chain linked SHA anomolies along that trajectory.

Further, there is an unusual low SHA anomaly at Kurumba in the SE corner of Carpentaria Gulf. This is fairly significant and if it attracts cyclonic conditions over the next 3 weeks, it will almost certainly involve Cairns.

If all this pans out, it will be difficult to sustain global warming theories of climate change when there is such immediate evidence of the involvement of wastewater pollution of particular coastal regions. Further this hard evidence of coral reef pollution by wastewaters from coastal migration and suspicious development consents casts doubt over Australia's reputation as protector of the Great Barrier Reef.

If we hope that our oceans will sustain us in the future, we must sustain them and keep them a whole lot CLEANER in the present even if that means certain powerful development and political interests must have their wings and profit margins clipped.

That is the problem, ChrisC. The fact that there is so little difference between the simple model and the more complex one over a 100 year projection means the the complex one has some serious flaws.

A century is about a quarter of the time it takes for a complete ocean circulation so the volume of water in which atmospheric CO2 is mixed should be 25% of total ocean volume. That should produce acidity levels that are only 10% of the levels projected in the simple model, but it does not.

And the intelligent response is to ask, why?

Looks like Odette was a fizzer...seemed to be more aimed at Townsville anyways

Kaep

Good on you for going out on a limb. Out of curiosity, how is the predictiveness of recce theory going?

Fester,

RECCE theory is 100% because Cyclonic events are constrained to move from areas of low entropy (tropical heat) to adjacent areas of MAXIMUM high entropy (polluted). That's Physics.

Tthe responses of the Federal, WA and Qld governments are at fault.

The SHA maps between 28Feb http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/trinanes/tmp/sha1173216888.gif and 6Mar http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/trinanes/tmp/sha1173216860.gif show why.

1.The Mackay wastewater anomaly (blue SHA anomaly) shifted from Mackay down to Rockhampton in that time despite Mackay being a major polluter from development for the last 4 months. I induce from this that an attempt was made to SAVE Mackay and shift the cyclone to SEQld. During that time huge wastewater plumes opened up off the sunshine coast and Brisbane presumably to attract Odette to a parched SEQld.
If I am right it means 2 things: Government are aware of RECCE theory and have stuffed up hasty wastewater manipulations. The reason Odette stalled was that it was forced to track south by these strategies into waters too cold to sustain development.
I most unhumbly suggest they ask for my advice before entertaining such future escapades.
Governments and agencies need to get this theory formalised.

2.In NSW globally significant Metropolitan wastewater plumes are dragging heat off the interior to create a NEVER ENDING drought. While Morris Iemma and his insane Labor Immigrational Megalomaniacs are in power, that will not happen. NSW Labor is the immigrant developers government NOT the peoples'.

3.The intense Karumba(Carpentaria) cyclone attractor plume has dissipated. That is wise. Cairns was looking at a ripper cyclone from that attractor.

4.Wastewaters from Kununurra on the Argyle and from the other JB Gulf rivers in WA was the attractor for Cyclone George. The SHA map shows it too has now dissipated. But that is probably from George stirring up the waters in the Gulf. More trouble is likely in ths region if the Howard's Top End farm initiative goes ahead without proper facilities to clean wastewater runoffs.

5.Mackay is not off the hook. they will not wait to repollute the GBR for the 30 days till cyclone season ends. That will reacquire Mackay as a cyclone target.

Fester,

More News on RECCE theory

200 Scientists converge on Hobart to discuss global sea rise .. and greenhouse warming based on SHA maps from TOPEX and JASON.

That's like 200 electrical engineers converging on Paris to discuss the effect of lightning on Parisian prostitutes.

This looks like its going to be a science SEARCH & AVOID Conference.

Those 200 scientists and their 2500 IPCC buddies have grants, salaries and a whole host of dollar incentives to hold the greenhouse warming line.

I just hope they don't lay plans to prevent independent scientists from gaining free and unfettered access to SHA data in future. Already last year at 4 critical times when SHA anomalies appeared to clear, off the NSW coast, and rains fell, the SHA maps became unusable artefact. That's a hell of a coincidence given the SHA guardian's predisposition with greenhouse atmospheric warming.

We can only hope they are objective enough to see that science is about TRUTH and not so much about money and living on Easy-Street.

Further, they say "It (SHA maps)also helps explain dramatically changing water temperatures off the NSW coast".

I have seen no explanation to date that takes into account the precise alignment of those SHA anomaly zones with 4 or 5 major ports (Tweed River, Macleay River to Coffs, Sydney to Wollongong, Bega to Eden) along the NSW coast.

Thanks Kaep. Personally I see governments more as ignorant crisis managers than malignant abusers of inside information, at least where science is concerned. At least by posting on this forum you provide a record of recce theory.

So your suggestion is that government action shifted the blue area from Mackay to SEQ in an attempt to attract Odette to the latter? Would this strategy have been more successful had they waited till Odette was closer to the coast?

Fester,

If Iemma/Carr and Howard were just ignorant crisis managers they would have stopped immigration 10 years ago in order to avert water shortages and gridlocked state services amidst the worst drought in a century..

They are actually considering accelerating immigration to over 140000 per year as it gives them more taxes and more political power. As long as they keep the profits in the hands of a few big development groups they have a real dictatorship that on the surface still seems to be a benign Democracy. Its a megalomaniac's dream not seen since the technological revolutions of the early 1930's. It has been enabled by the unbridled rise in IT technology whose protected high end use to sequester power and wealth will lead to world war as surely as mass production technology led to to WWII for precisely the same reason.

As for Mackay to Rockhampton, The latest SHA map http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/trinanes/tmp/sha1173308706.gif
shows a total removal of SHA anomalies. That indicates the seriousness with which authorities regard a cyclone strike to this sensitive military, farming and metropolitan complex. I don't believe experimenting or flirting with cyclones is on the table. But lets see how the maps pan out over the next 30 days. That will be interesting because that region needs to pollute in order to expand and prosper. Shame about the GBR!

The best bet now would be to arrange a cyclone attractor somewhere between Townsville and Mackay and let a cyclone hit land. The rainy aftermath will eventually work its way down to SEQ and more importantly for NSW to the head of the Darling River.

Also in this map there is a very high SHA anomaly along the west coast of Cape York. That is due to heated waters and thus a LOW pressure zone is building there. That Low will look for a Sth Easterly high entropy zone in which to dissipate. Nothing stands out at the moment and the Low may dissipate as torrential rains but I will report if anything changes.

In Today's Sydney Morning Herald:

"Cyclone George is still passing and it's not safe for volunteers to head out there yet," the Western Australia Fire and Emergency Services Authority spokeswoman said
said."

"It's going to be a couple of hours until they can go out and out and do a recce (reconnaissance mission)."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/cyclone-george-kills-one/2007/03/09/1173166934455.html

Comment:

Why would a journo define a perfectly standard english language noun like recce unless avoiding confusion with an alternative definition RECCE (Regional Ectopic Climate Catastrophe Event)?

I think the WA Emergency Service and the Journos are on to RECCE Theory.

What they should have said was:

It's going to be a couple of hours until the RECCE is over so they can go out and do a recce and assess the wrecceage

KAEP,

Thank you for the link to the online SMH report. I clicked on it at around 6:20 PM EDST Friday 9 March 2007. The words you quoted in your post were not present in the online version. Did they perhaps come from a printed SMH? Or were they perhaps originally present in the online report, having since been removed?

Whilst it may be wise not to try and read too much into a routine newspaper report, a turn of phrase can be on occasions extremely revealing. I notice in the quote within your post what may be a couple of typographical errors. The first, seemingly inconsequential, is the repetition of 'said' at the end (and on the next line down) of the first statement attributed to the spokeswoman for the WAFESA. The second is in the curious use of the phrase 'go out and out and do a recce' in the second quote within your post.

If the speaker you quoted was really talking about conducting a recconaissance, the use of the phrase 'go out and out' is seemingly inappropriate. If the words are accurately reported, however, they could make sense in a different context. That context could be one in which, as you suggest, the speaker was using the acronym RECCE (Regional Ectopic Climate Catastrophe Event) but was NOT talking about undertaking recconaissance, the problem being that the journalist did not realise the meaning of the acronym in the context.

What if the journalist was listening in on a conversation, the context of which he did not fully understand, and what the speaker really said was "Its going to be a couple of [years] until they can go out and out and DO a RECCE."? That would be a damaging claim or admission! One perhaps important enough to have to obfuscate in the immediate circumstances of the reporting, and editorially censor subsequently.

I guess the question is, were these apparent typos your own (quite understandable) errors, or are your quotes absolutely verbatim from your original source? If the latter, we may have a problem.

Kaep plugging away.

Forest,

Apologies for any confusion.

I did not intend to give the impression that the quote was verbatim in anything other than the use of 'recce' and its definition as that was the only reference on which I was making any claim.

I included the source article so people could check that. I added the name of the cyclone and the WA spokeswoman reference for forum brevity. The extra 'out and' was a typo.

The exact quote:

"The Cyclone is still passing and it's not safe for volunteers to head out there yet," she said.

"It's going to be a couple of hours until they can go out and do a recce (reconnaissance mission)."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/cyclone-george-kills-one/2007/03/09/1173166934455.html

Perhaps a better intro to my post would have been: Approximately in today's SMH:

And my claims about authorities catching on to RECCE theory?.

The Qld cyclone season is not over and the US hurricane season starts in June. I will continue to report events here and on the New York Times science forum. Just watch what happens and keep an ear out for that word RECCE! After all science is based on experimental research is it not?

Kaep

Once a theory is substantially supported by evidence, it rises above politics. Please keep the forum updated with your progress, as it is far more interesting than much of the petty bickering here.

Out of interest Kaep, could ocean seeding have a role in influencing rainfall?

http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?idarticle=8075

Fester,

Yes, climate engineering is possible. However, RECCE theory predicts changing the trajectory of major global energy circuits will require raising or lowering the ENTROPY of strategic proximal REGIONS by at least 50% of the ENTROPY adjacent to that REGION. To lower that magnitude of Entropy (heating) requires more Energy than clean-up costs after climate changes like cyclones or drought. To raise the entropy or deliberately pollute on such a scale would do more harm than good and cost $billions in infrastructure and execution costs.

This is why cloud seeding has failed and why global albedo pollution will fail as a climate altering strategy. Do-gooder scientists haven't done their homework. The massive ENERGY balances that must be addressed in order to get any significant advantage are humungous.

Fortunately nature has its own way ... Wetlands. And specially engineered wetlands with infrastucture supplied by companies like CDC can improve on nature up to 100 fold in shifting the gravitas of global thermodynamics away from the oceans and back onto land. We live mainly on land and only when entropy balances are generally shifted towards land stored with low entropy saved in millions of 1-2 acre wetlands (EWBs-Engineered Werland Basins),will climate engineering, saving US from calamities, become truly feasible.

ITM Australian scientists are just starting to notice the SHA anomalies off NSW that I have been implicating in causing perpetual NSW drought. http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Coldwater-eddy-forms-off-Sydney-coast/2007/03/14/1173722502660.html

It is a short step from here to realising the power of RECCE theory, developing water recycling policies and EWBs, and ending NSW drought.

But if our Chamber-of-commerce, News Media and chamber of commerce proxy Labour government keeps making provision to immigrate 70,000 people a year into Sydney (the epicentre of coastal SHA anomalies)for quickie-profits-and kickbacks-for-the-few, any remediation will be quickly offset.

The truth be known? NSW drought should be called Corruption Incarnate or Labor's "IMMIGRATION CURSE".

The only way to solve this problem is for people to change governments as often as they change their underwear. That will make it too costly for the chamber-of-commerce and other corrupting influences to keep $soilng the fabric of state political processes.

16 March 07,

Mackay is polluting the GBR again.

Today's SHA map shows a cyclone strike vector approaching from the Nth East sometime in the next 14 days.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/trinanes/tmp/sha1174029005.gif

Who'll blink first? The Cyclone or will Mackay's fat cat developers clean up that plume in time to halt the beast?

ITM Qld Premier Beatie still thinks climate change is all about expanding opportunities for a few rich people in Qld, a la Joh.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Qld-doesnt-want-unskilled-southerners/2007/03/16/1173722731346.html

He has even set up his own $7.5 million per year climate manipulation investigation unit, probably to intimidate RECCE theory into making Qld a decent place to live. Climatologically speaking of course.

We can only wonder what the hell is going through Beatie's mind: "It's not about cleaning the oceans or the GBR or saving some poxy ecosystems, its about my close mates in Qld getting richer. Don't you southerners worry about THAT!."

Watch out Mackay .... !INCOMING!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/trinanes/tmp/sha1174186739.gif

Mackay cyclone still in the offing,

The SHA circuitry is evident in this map:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2007081spsha.png

The Heat is there to the NE for the second law of thermodynamics to shift to the most polluted area (Mackay):
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2007081spsst.png

It won't happen overnight but its still .... INCOMING!

KAEP,

Thanks for the successive SHA map links. I note on the the most recent one, that although the scale is a little larger, the dark blue is seemingly much more 'pixellated' as well as contracted off Mackay, if that is the correct term. Is this a relatively more degraded map than that of 17 March?

What do the three pronounced brown areas on the 17 March map off the east coast represent? There is also one of these at the western edge of the Bight, and another in the SE corner of the Gulf. What process is producing these? Why do areas (as in the case of the SE corner of the Gulf) go from one end of the anomaly scale to the other so apparently quickly, rather than just going to the middle of the range?

I also note that nobody seems to be challenging the science behind the range of assertions you are making. I don't pretend to be able to do this myself, but I believe I know from another area of enquiry what such silence likely means. Please kaep explaining. I think you have a quite wide audience.

Forrest,

Townsville now appears to be the target.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2007084spsha.png

Mackay has changed its SHA profile dramatically as cyclone 2IP has entered the frame.

http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Gif/swp.latest.gif

The SHA maps I am presenting are coarser pixel size but have the advantage of permanence. They are not deleted after 2 days as are the Trinane maps I have been using.

As for other low coastal SHA features, they are all associated with some kind of river, port of civil or industrial development. The way Mackay changed so abruptly indicates that these features are likely associated with wastewater streams and are controllable.

As coriolis forces restrict cyclone trajectories mostly above the Tropic of Capricorn, only those SHA plumes above TOC will be relevant thermodynamic targets.

There is a relevant plume off Weipa that is of interest as well.

At this time heat is escaping the tropics as the sun retreats northwards and coastal targets are changing, so we will have to wait and see what final second law of thermodynamics(2LT) outcomes will occur. There is enough heat NE of Qld for those outcomes to be reasonably severe.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2007084spsst.png