Dear James,

I suspect that Jeff Kennett was thinking the same thing when he lost to Steve Bracks.

I also suspect that Beazley will be quite comfortable campaigning as a leader who is expected to lose the election.

Unless Howard is very clever about how he spends the Telstra windfall (and he might be clever about it, but that has nothing to do with the 'election cycle' theory you develop) I think that Howard will lose the election.

Work Choices, nuclear power, the War in Iraq, interest rates rising (and likely to rise again before the election), housing affordability at its lowest level in years, a failure to address the challenges presented by climate change (evidenced by failure to sign the [iconic] Kyoto Protocol)... there are plenty of issues for the Opposition to drill home.

Bring it on!

I nice try at re working Rod Sawford's election guide. there are 3 factors. unmeployment, inflation and interest rates.

If two of these have gone in the wrong direction during the term of office NO australian govt has held office.

Thus labor will win the next election.

While Beazley is leader and the Labor party has no policies, they will not win an election, but if that changes, little Johnny had better watch out because his current intransigence on Iraq and industrial relations in particular are losing him votes. The average voter couldn't give a stuff about global warming or nuclear energy. It is what affects his current standard of living which drives his vote.

James, it's a bit early to be declaring the winner of the next federal election. The vicissitudes of life extend to our politicians as well.

One thing is guaranteed and that is that intelligent life will not be discovered in our federal parliament.

James, your Liberal Party pre-selection form is in the mail...now that you have all that free time on your hands.

Right. That's why the dags we keep installing in Canberra can afford to be as dopey and useless as they are: they know that they can buy the average Australian voter when the time comes, no matter what stuff ups they have made during their term.

As for who will win the next election - the opposite of what Malcolm McKerras predicts.