McConville is more than likely correct in his anal isis - and that is the sad point - all else becomes insignificant as long as the economy is chugging along for the betterment the movers and shakers

Think about it wobbles, the Americans are about to take over Packer's PBL and channel 9 and their printed media.

If anything, the ALP has played into the US agenda. A trap that they may not be aware of. The US will do anything to destroy the AWB. Who do you think gave Kim Beazley all that information about the kickbacks? The Australian authorities? Of course not. Only the US and the EU have a motive.

While Bush' Republicans are friendly with Howard, US intelligence and military is more friendly with Kim Beazley.

I agree with Sage. It is too early to call.

The Republicans in the US congress will lose their mandate in the half term elections due the end of this year.

The full effects of the draught and the expense of the oncoming bushfires this summer are yet to come.

This Christmas will be a stinker as less will spend: nervous about credit card and loan interest rates.

Thanks to Howard's policies, US owned Wal-Mart will arise and bring in the axe once it has Coles.

More jobs will be cut in US media takeovers, telcos, all technology, industry and retail takeovers will fall to foreign interests. Telstra is already doing this.

By next year, it is possible that with rural and urban disaster, we could end up overwhelmed by bankruptcy, debt, insurance debt and therefore high interest rates as well and foreign takeovers for foreign interests. Therefore high unemployment and public resentment.

Only fear can save this government. Unless Howard makes a sinister phone call to the middle east begging them to blow up the Harbour Bridge and play the "terrorist" card. Nice tactic but he can't win.

More people and more countries like Papua, the Solomn Islands and East Timor are in a cold war with our leader now. NZ and Indonesia are not impressed either. How secure do you feel?

Once more see his true colours, he could end up the most hated leader in Australian history by the next election.

sneekeepete (and others)

McConvill may be right in the outcome he predicts (time will tell); but I think his analysis is badly flawed. The assumption that the economy is the sole determinant of people's voting patterns is arguable but he allows no other causative connection.

If he were right, McConvill would have to find other reasons to explain why Howard finds it necessary to use Tampa, children overboard and other such frauds. Why would he use dog whistle tactics days before an election? Why would he talk up terrorism fears? Why defame the Leader of the Opposition? If McConvill's analysis is right there would be no need for these election strategies - indeed no need for elections; we'd change the constitution so as to keep the incumbents when the economy is OK and replace them when it's not. Simple eh?

Howard has run out of scare campaigns.

Terrorism - higher because of his actions
Boat people - Not many coming any more, all dead
Unions - Only exist for professionals, business and farmers

He cannot bribe the electorate with tax cuts - reserve bank will say no.

Low unemployment so what no votes in that - I got my job on my skills.

Things costing more - big minus.

The Howard spin has evaporated, just look at the opinion polls.

The Liberals are falling apart, internal dissent with President Johnny.

He is a smart guy though, he will not even contest the next election leave the blame on Costello. He has form and will "cut and run" when the going gets tough. He has played all his cards.

Spot on, Howard will win, and even if Beazley did win I wouldn't really care, the problems in this country are way bigger than Liberal/Labor

Howard's assault on people's rights at work is certainly no vote winner. Workchoices is deeply unpopular, and in a country with a workplace culture built around trade union values, many people feel betrayed. I have heard plenty of people who voted him in say things about him that I cannot print here.

Having deeply offended the values of decency and a fair go the Aussies hold dear, they are beginning to notice other transgressions, such as the children who didn't get thrown overboard, Iraqi weopons of mass destruction that never existed, the AWB scam that he almost certainly knew about. Howards position is much more precarious than it was 12 months ago.

When you consider that his election victory was nowhere near as supreme as it may appear( he won a great majority of seats, but very many of them by a slim margin) it would not take much of a swing to tip the scales back the other way.

And if people really do only vote with their hip pocket and don't care about anythig else, there is a growing number with shrinking hip pockets, thanks to workchoices and rising inflation.

John Howard is on borrowed time.