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The Forum > Article Comments > Defeating the Iranian-Syrian axis in Lebanon > Comments

Defeating the Iranian-Syrian axis in Lebanon : Comments

By Yaakov Amidror and Dan Diker, published 1/8/2006

A strategic assessment of the Hezbollah War.

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Interesting assessment.

Especially interesting to note that it does not include the word 'refugee' or even 'civilian'. Not even that soft military term 'collateral damage'.

The piece speaks of the necessity of this war. Lets say, hypothetically, I could accept that.
I'd still be curious as to how many casualties are acceptable.

When reading justifications for war, omissions speak volumes.
Posted by TurnRightThenLeft, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 10:08:40 AM
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This article forms Israel's justification for the war and highlights the genuine and coming Iranian nuclear missile danger to the region - but some of its logic is dubious:

- "Iran has taken a strategic decision to activate Hezbollah terror against Israel in order to preclude the United States and its Western allies from stopping Iran's nuclear development program." How, using Hezbollah, is Israel supposed to be "precluding" anything?

- "Israel must carry out its current military operation against Hezbollah until it is fully neutralised, disarmed, and unable to serve as Iran's long "arm".."
Israel knows that it cannot destroy Hezbollah with airstikes and (still) very limitedd ground activity. Terrorist groups in southern Lebanon always have grown back.

- "Only a full victory against Hezbollah will allow the possibility for Lebanon to emerge as a free and democratic country..."
Yeah right. We heard the same before the invasion of Iraq. Have things improved there? Israel is appealing to US sentiment for the wrong ideological reasons.

If Israel revealed its true strategy, which I have written about in detail in the last 3 posts of my blog http://spyingbadthings.blogspot.com then things would be clearer.

My take on Israel's strategy is this:

Israel perceives that Iran is developing its nuclear weapons capability too rapidly for multilateral pressure (largely ineffective on Iran anyway for the last 25 years) to have any effect.

North Korea’s rapid advances in long-range missile and nuclear weapon technology is alarming for Israel. North Korea has sold some long range missiles to Iran. Cooperation in the nuclear weapons area is also possible which MAY HAVE ACCELERATED IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME.

Therefore Israel was determined to refocus world attention from US policy on Iraq (and other issues) to threats on Israel which, via Hezbollah, most dramatically means the Iranian threat.

Israel's intense reactions to the kidnappings in Gaza and Lebanon were clearly aimed to create a front page, international crisis to focus attention on Israel’s international security problems.

continued
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 3:17:39 PM
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Hezbollah's massed rocket reaction (to Israeli airstrikes) surprised Israel. Knowing that peacekeepers could not reduce the intensity of the missile activity it resolved to continue to hit missile launchers even if this prolonged the fighting.

Israel changed its strategy by actively delaying an international decision favoring peacekeepers by:
- (very probably) asking the US to delay (at G8 and the UN) a ceasefire and peacekeeper decision, and
- intentionally bombing the UN post partially as a brutal way of dissuading other countries from pushing for the peacekeeper option YET.

If Israel's aim was to:
- refocus world attention on Lebanon;
- prompt a large peacekeeper force to move in - which is bound to fail - thus "proving" the moderate course is weak and wrong;
- "prove" that Iran is a rogue state via the Hezbollah connection; and
- harden the resolve of the US to assist Israel in bombing Iran;
then I think Israel has succeeded.

This whole crisis has made Israel even more unpopular in the Middle East and more widely, but if this postpones a future and determined nuclear threat Israel sees this as an acceptable tradeoff.

aka Spooky Pete
http://spyingbadthings.blogspot.com

PS. I invite ONA and "expert thinktanks" to keep on copying my analyses for free ;-)
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 3:21:59 PM
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The Clintonese diplomatic chickens are coming home to roost the failure of their diplomacy of 1996, which, whilst successfuly negotiated a Truce between Hezbollah and Israel, after the former had launched its rocket attacks and the latter countered with Operation Grapes of Wrath, failed abysmally to remove and disarm Hezbollah, with the result to make it even stronger and more lethal during the Truce that lasted ten years.

If once again, the myopic diplomacy of the West negotiates another Truce without removing and disarming Hezbollah, then the latter will not only become even stronger, but will also have the capability in the near future to launch its rockets against Israel tipped, this time, with weapons of mass destruction and possibly even with tactical nuclear weapons. If therefore, US and European diplomacy is prone to repeat the stupendous errors of the past, then Israel would have no other choice but to continue its STRATEGIC offensive against Hezbollah and destroy it completely to secure its own survival.

The stakes are so high, that any pusillanimity on the part of Western leadership will have the outcome that the MULLOCRACY of Iran will become the dominant power of the region, if not of the Muslim world, armed with nuclear weapons, and would pose a mortal threat to Western civilization.

More on NEMESIS:http://congeorgekotzabasis.blogspot.com
Posted by Themistocles, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 7:38:13 PM
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Israel's original intent, as broadcast through Western Media outlets was to destroy or greatly weaken Hezbollah.

Tonight on Fox and other Western Media outlets that intent changed to destroying Hezbollah INFRASTRUCTURE.

Israel's not achieving it's aims so it's changing them.

Do these people think we will fall for their infantile gargage. Their aims are and always were simply unachievable... regardless of their 'logic'.

The fact is simply if Israel was succeeding in any of it's aims, less rockets would be falling on Northern Israel. And from all reports quite the contrary is occuring.

Regardless of the military outcome Israel has lost the support it once had. Westerners are now questioning Israel's motives. That, or more accurately it's extent, has not happened at any time in the last 56 years
Posted by keith, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 8:26:41 PM
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Keith,

So lets get this straight,

Israel did not start this war did it?

Israel is not acting illegally is it?

Shaba/Sheba'a Farms / Ha'ar Dov are not really Lebanese Territory are they?

So now, that having been established, you simply assert that the goals are not achievable. Fine, watch, wait & see.

The current operation, is going fine, the IDF finally has the political mandate to send in sufficient ground troops to affect a result. From Tomorrow night, finally, ALL civilians will be out of South Lebanon, and unrestricted bombing can begin. All they have to do is get the Hizbollah swine out of the cities/towns to attack them, whilst bombing the bejesus out of the towns.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3284588,00.html

By the way, have you seen this man?

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3284546,00.html

He looks a bit like 'Hasan', maybe he is related? I swear to god, he was in lebanon last week.

Yalah ya nasrallah yidfok ochah inshallah

http://www.jewlicious.com/?p=2477

Inshallah

2bob

PS Don't be upset, if you wish to back the Arabs against Israel, it is probably best that you get used to losing.
Posted by 2bob, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 10:59:20 PM
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'The current operation, is going fine,...'

Yep I thought so, killing peacekeepers, women and kids is fine in your estimation.

That is why Israel will be forced back within it's pre '67 borders. You want to hope the world doesn't decide in the face of your arrogrance (I am assuming you are an Israeli mouthpiece.) and violence those borders arn't pushed back to the '47 partition borders

You've crowed about the power and might of the IDF. Well buck me, with all their advantage they are struggling to overrun Hezbollah. They claimed at the outset they had sufficient troop's, now you're changing the loonie tune again. The Invasion of Lebanon is well into it's fourth week now and those rockets keep falling on Israel.

Just how effective is that all powerful IDF? It's latest claims are 400 Hezbollah killed. Four week's, all those smart bombs, all that artillery, all those tanks, all those extremely well armed and over-protected(Well now apparently insufficient) troops and what 400 Hezbollah tterrorists killed? That's pretty expensive per corpse ... but what do you care it's the yanks who are paying...isn't it?
Israeli reports said there were 16,000 odd Hezbollah terrorists to be eliminated.

Just how long is Israel's destruction of Hezbollah going to take and how much do you think the Yanks will be prepared to pay?

I mate, unlike you, am on the side of peace and negotiation. I reckon cranking up violence only leads to more violence. You blokes should have learn't that last time. Your ineffective violence in Lebanon only spawned Hezbollah. What will your violent outburst and failure produce this time?

Still waiting to see the UN authorise this invasion. That makes it illegal.
Deliberately killing civilians and destroying civilian infastructur is a war crime.

It is only the IDF who dispute what happened in Qana and at that UN post

but ... whatever ...
Posted by keith, Wednesday, 2 August 2006 8:19:10 AM
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I think from a strategic point of view the most disappointing aspect of the Middle East at this time is the fact that the 'war' in Iraq has significantly decreased the world's appetite for military engagement with Iran and Syria. I dont look back on the fall of the Hussein regime with regret-afterall it was a horrible one even by today's standards. However the timing of Husseins removal was bad (a) because the Bush family was involved; (b) because removing Hussein removed a key counter weight to Iran.

Israel has attacked the wrong country- Lebanon was if anything what the West is striving for. In fact if Hariri had not been assassinated by the Syrians it would not be where it is today. From a strategic point of view, Iran and Syria most know that fighting a proxy war from Lebanon not only threatens Israel (a key bargaining chip)but also increases radical Shi'te influence from Turkey to Somalia to Afghanistan.

The posters on this site who are constantly referring to 'jews' and 'imperialism in Iraq' are sadly misguided. Such ethnic stereotyping and anti Americanism is exactly what Iran is pushing for. Deny the holocaust, wipe Israel from the earth, make it all about a crusade and get hung up on technological advancement. This is not the middle ages where cannons do damage- if we are not careful Iran WILL radicalise the middle east and use a nuclear weapon to prove Islamists now match 'Creusaders'.

Finally I find all the lefties on here so hypocritical. Invading Iraq was wrong because Sadamm had no WMD's and was only responsible for gassing people and butchering women and children by the thousands. Now that Israel is taking on Iran, a state that the UN knows is developing WMD's, it is Israel's fault that civilians are killed in a war it DIDNT start (israel has left Lebanon alone for half a decade)!
Posted by wre, Wednesday, 2 August 2006 9:10:25 AM
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It is not illegal for Israel to respond to an unprovoked attack on its citizens within its own UN mandated borders. Especially when that attack was made by an illegal and illicit armed militia, put in that position by the will of the Lebanese Government, which thoroughly approves of their resistance:

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2006/s1703362.htm

That means that this war is not only legal, but entirely justifiable:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/25/AR2006072501387.html

While the casualty count from Kfar Kana falls to 28, of which 10 are children (and the difficulty in explaining the cause of the collapse remains - because there is no legitimate reason for explosives to have been in the building).

finally, for you and your arab freind:

Kus imak, ya khalbs

Inshallah

2bob
Posted by 2bob, Wednesday, 2 August 2006 11:34:08 AM
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Here's something that may adjust the perspective that we are being fed.

http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=2928
Posted by rache, Wednesday, 2 August 2006 11:58:14 AM
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If your point is that Israel expected this war, then you are right. Of course they expected it, Hizbollah has done this at least twice before on the same scale (2000 & 2005):

http://www.defense-update.com/2005/12/al-ghajar-village-flashpoint.html

However, given the increased sophistication of their arsenal and training, Israel cannot afford to let them act with impunity, and now given the opportunity will vastly alter the visible geography of the area in order to ensure that sites from which rockets could be fired, no longer exist. Israel really does not have a choice, if they don't stop this, no part of Israel within 70 km of enemy territory is safe (and that is the lot).

Finally, One either kills a snake or ignores it, one cannot play with snakes without being bit.

Inshallah

2bob
Posted by 2bob, Friday, 4 August 2006 12:04:40 AM
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• Wre ..."The posters on this site who are constantly referring to 'jews' and 'imperialism in Iraq' are sadly misguided. Such ethnic stereotyping and anti Americanism is exactly what Iran is pushing for"... In reflection on the sly Zionist zealots emitted dis-info tactics out of sight out of mind from the heinous crimes perpetration against the humanity on the planet earth.

As genocidal actions of the insane Israeli junta in fact causing the resurrection of anti-Semitism all over the world, thus threatening Jews on a whole. Just as Olmert's propaganda gurus in the Galuth, are pouring fuel on the flames. Still having bloody chutzpah to accuse our critics against the fascist doctrine, as being anti-Semites or self-Hating Jews.

Thus branding our conscientious citizenry with this stereotype race-mark of indignation. As many good moral people, who feel no hatred at all, towards the Jews on a whole, but who abhor the Zionist atrocities perpetrated by the insane Israeli junta, are being called systematically as anti-Semites. Thus inadvertently giving "it" something approaching respectability, tantamount to anti-Fascist dissent mark. As a lethal sting was taken-out of anti-Semitic sly-coined-word.

The practical upshot:

Not only does Israeli junta not protects the Jews from anti-Semitism, but quite on the contrary, Zionists manufacture and export the anti-Semitism, which threatens ordinary Jews around the world. Especially our Jew-lesser brethren (who sustained as norm collateral ravage fallout consequences), this is a dangerous vicious circle.

As the latest in the insane Olmert's actions in Lebanon and Gaza created repulsion and strong opposition throughout the world. What just might reinforce anti-Semitism. Faced with this envisaged danger, Jewish communities are pushed into defending Israeli actions, while giving it unqualified support.
Posted by Leo Braun, Friday, 4 August 2006 5:01:02 PM
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True. Israel is defending itself from getting wiped off..
Posted by Darwin1, Friday, 4 August 2006 6:28:19 PM
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