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The Forum > Article Comments > Defeating the Iranian-Syrian axis in Lebanon > Comments

Defeating the Iranian-Syrian axis in Lebanon : Comments

By Yaakov Amidror and Dan Diker, published 1/8/2006

A strategic assessment of the Hezbollah War.

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Interesting assessment.

Especially interesting to note that it does not include the word 'refugee' or even 'civilian'. Not even that soft military term 'collateral damage'.

The piece speaks of the necessity of this war. Lets say, hypothetically, I could accept that.
I'd still be curious as to how many casualties are acceptable.

When reading justifications for war, omissions speak volumes.
Posted by TurnRightThenLeft, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 10:08:40 AM
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This article forms Israel's justification for the war and highlights the genuine and coming Iranian nuclear missile danger to the region - but some of its logic is dubious:

- "Iran has taken a strategic decision to activate Hezbollah terror against Israel in order to preclude the United States and its Western allies from stopping Iran's nuclear development program." How, using Hezbollah, is Israel supposed to be "precluding" anything?

- "Israel must carry out its current military operation against Hezbollah until it is fully neutralised, disarmed, and unable to serve as Iran's long "arm".."
Israel knows that it cannot destroy Hezbollah with airstikes and (still) very limitedd ground activity. Terrorist groups in southern Lebanon always have grown back.

- "Only a full victory against Hezbollah will allow the possibility for Lebanon to emerge as a free and democratic country..."
Yeah right. We heard the same before the invasion of Iraq. Have things improved there? Israel is appealing to US sentiment for the wrong ideological reasons.

If Israel revealed its true strategy, which I have written about in detail in the last 3 posts of my blog http://spyingbadthings.blogspot.com then things would be clearer.

My take on Israel's strategy is this:

Israel perceives that Iran is developing its nuclear weapons capability too rapidly for multilateral pressure (largely ineffective on Iran anyway for the last 25 years) to have any effect.

North Koreaís rapid advances in long-range missile and nuclear weapon technology is alarming for Israel. North Korea has sold some long range missiles to Iran. Cooperation in the nuclear weapons area is also possible which MAY HAVE ACCELERATED IRANíS NUCLEAR PROGRAMME.

Therefore Israel was determined to refocus world attention from US policy on Iraq (and other issues) to threats on Israel which, via Hezbollah, most dramatically means the Iranian threat.

Israel's intense reactions to the kidnappings in Gaza and Lebanon were clearly aimed to create a front page, international crisis to focus attention on Israelís international security problems.

continued
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 3:17:39 PM
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Hezbollah's massed rocket reaction (to Israeli airstrikes) surprised Israel. Knowing that peacekeepers could not reduce the intensity of the missile activity it resolved to continue to hit missile launchers even if this prolonged the fighting.

Israel changed its strategy by actively delaying an international decision favoring peacekeepers by:
- (very probably) asking the US to delay (at G8 and the UN) a ceasefire and peacekeeper decision, and
- intentionally bombing the UN post partially as a brutal way of dissuading other countries from pushing for the peacekeeper option YET.

If Israel's aim was to:
- refocus world attention on Lebanon;
- prompt a large peacekeeper force to move in - which is bound to fail - thus "proving" the moderate course is weak and wrong;
- "prove" that Iran is a rogue state via the Hezbollah connection; and
- harden the resolve of the US to assist Israel in bombing Iran;
then I think Israel has succeeded.

This whole crisis has made Israel even more unpopular in the Middle East and more widely, but if this postpones a future and determined nuclear threat Israel sees this as an acceptable tradeoff.

aka Spooky Pete
http://spyingbadthings.blogspot.com

PS. I invite ONA and "expert thinktanks" to keep on copying my analyses for free ;-)
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 3:21:59 PM
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The Clintonese diplomatic chickens are coming home to roost the failure of their diplomacy of 1996, which, whilst successfuly negotiated a Truce between Hezbollah and Israel, after the former had launched its rocket attacks and the latter countered with Operation Grapes of Wrath, failed abysmally to remove and disarm Hezbollah, with the result to make it even stronger and more lethal during the Truce that lasted ten years.

If once again, the myopic diplomacy of the West negotiates another Truce without removing and disarming Hezbollah, then the latter will not only become even stronger, but will also have the capability in the near future to launch its rockets against Israel tipped, this time, with weapons of mass destruction and possibly even with tactical nuclear weapons. If therefore, US and European diplomacy is prone to repeat the stupendous errors of the past, then Israel would have no other choice but to continue its STRATEGIC offensive against Hezbollah and destroy it completely to secure its own survival.

The stakes are so high, that any pusillanimity on the part of Western leadership will have the outcome that the MULLOCRACY of Iran will become the dominant power of the region, if not of the Muslim world, armed with nuclear weapons, and would pose a mortal threat to Western civilization.

More on NEMESIS:http://congeorgekotzabasis.blogspot.com
Posted by Themistocles, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 7:38:13 PM
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Israel's original intent, as broadcast through Western Media outlets was to destroy or greatly weaken Hezbollah.

Tonight on Fox and other Western Media outlets that intent changed to destroying Hezbollah INFRASTRUCTURE.

Israel's not achieving it's aims so it's changing them.

Do these people think we will fall for their infantile gargage. Their aims are and always were simply unachievable... regardless of their 'logic'.

The fact is simply if Israel was succeeding in any of it's aims, less rockets would be falling on Northern Israel. And from all reports quite the contrary is occuring.

Regardless of the military outcome Israel has lost the support it once had. Westerners are now questioning Israel's motives. That, or more accurately it's extent, has not happened at any time in the last 56 years
Posted by keith, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 8:26:41 PM
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Keith,

So lets get this straight,

Israel did not start this war did it?

Israel is not acting illegally is it?

Shaba/Sheba'a Farms / Ha'ar Dov are not really Lebanese Territory are they?

So now, that having been established, you simply assert that the goals are not achievable. Fine, watch, wait & see.

The current operation, is going fine, the IDF finally has the political mandate to send in sufficient ground troops to affect a result. From Tomorrow night, finally, ALL civilians will be out of South Lebanon, and unrestricted bombing can begin. All they have to do is get the Hizbollah swine out of the cities/towns to attack them, whilst bombing the bejesus out of the towns.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3284588,00.html

By the way, have you seen this man?

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3284546,00.html

He looks a bit like 'Hasan', maybe he is related? I swear to god, he was in lebanon last week.

Yalah ya nasrallah yidfok ochah inshallah

http://www.jewlicious.com/?p=2477

Inshallah

2bob

PS Don't be upset, if you wish to back the Arabs against Israel, it is probably best that you get used to losing.
Posted by 2bob, Tuesday, 1 August 2006 10:59:20 PM
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