I think that people have been rung dry of sentiment about foreign conflicts like Ukraine and Israel; particularly Ukraine, which is not an ally of Australia, and has little or nothing in common with Australia. We are not responsible for foreign nonsense. We should be concerned only by the foreigners our politicians are cramming into Australia, and the divisions they are causing here.

Nope, none of the above.

'Scenario 1: The frozen conflict – a protracted stalemate'
Russia wont accept a frozen conflict, and it's not a stalemate now.
Russia continues taking territory all across the line of contact.

"Ukraine, bolstered by Western military aid, could consolidate control over roughly 80–85% of its internationally recognized territory"
- Ukraine's not going to take back any territory, scenario 1, ridiculous, somewhat delusional.

Scenario 2: Ukrainian breakthrough – a path to victory
- Delusional
"If Ukrainian forces successfully isolate Crimea by severing the land bridge through southern Ukraine..."
- You already tried it and failed, where will you get the trained forces to go on the offensive requiring 3 to 1 outnumber of enemy troops? where will you get tanks, artillery and other heavy equipment to mount such an offensive with, where's your air support?
Scenario 2 - completely delusional

Scenario 3: Russian escalation – a descent into wider conflict
"The most dangerous possibility is a dramatic escalation by Russia, driven by desperation or a perceived need to regain the initiative. If Ukrainian forces make substantial gains, Putin might resort to extreme measures to avert defeat.
One potential escalation could involve the use of chemical weapons or tactical nuclear threats to terrorise Ukrainian forces and civilians."
Russia already has the initiative, Ukraine's not going to hold the Russians back with drones especially when Russia has more and more of everything. They have no need to use nuclear or chemical weapons.
- Scenario 3 - Ridiculous / delusional.

Scenario 4: Diplomatic settlement – an unlikely but possible peace
No, not likely, Ukraine's not willing to accept Russian terms, so will lose more men and territory.

More likely Russia will continue to grind down the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and then Russia will send in another 100K troops open a new front Zaporizhzhia or Kharkiv and break the Ukrainian defence entirely forcing Ukraine into unconditional surrender and the loss of further oblasts

Ukraine can accept the current Russian terms or lose more.

This article is basically narrative construction.
It gives you 4 options all of which are unreasonable and unlikely.
- Sells you a false narrative Ukraine can win and the war should continue.

'We don't want this anymore' — Lavrov confirms Russia has no interest in Ukraine ceasefire
http://kyivindependent.com/we-dont-want-this-anymore-russia-rejects-a-ceasefire-in-ukraine-lavrov-says/

Russian armed forces enter Dnipro Oblast
http://youtu.be/NeoYhFFKf1s?t=471

Ukraine Faces A Growing Risk of Outright Military Collapse If No Deal Struck
http://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/05/ukraine-faces-a-growing-risk-of-outright-military-collapse-if-no-deal-struck/

If Ukraine doesn't accept the current Russian terms for Crimea and the 4 Oblasts, it'll soon be 8 Oblasts.

A lot of Russians don't support peace negotiations.
They support continuing until Ukraine has to accept unconditional surrender, and I tend to agree with them in principle but I oppose the senseless loss of lives.

Here's your 5th scenario
http://www.youtube.com/live/4WzWYQDRUU4?t=301