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The Forum > Article Comments > Why sanctions do not work. > Comments

Why sanctions do not work. : Comments

By Mehroz Siraj, published 11/3/2022

While these sanctions are aimed at hitting Russia's economy by weakening President Putin and his government, the ground realities and historical facts support a different rationale.

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The Lowy Institute has said that that the sanctions against Russia might actually escalate the conflict, as might the calls for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. We need to be aware that Putin regards a war with the U.S. as inevitable anyway.
Posted by ttbn, Friday, 11 March 2022 8:15:44 AM
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Sanctions don't work if some nations allow themselves to be pipelines that allow the sanctions to be effectively avoided!

What would concentrate the mind of Mr Putin would be, if the world found other more reliable and vastly cheaper sources of (oil/gas) fuel Such as easily made almost free, biogas (methane) or oil sources from farmed algae, some of which is up to 60% ready to use as is, oil! And costing around 44 cents per litre at the bowser.

Then there are a range of alternative hydrocarbons/fuels produced from seawater! Using proven and dated technology made possible via nuclear energy and the (waste) heat generated via that technology!

All of which would be available, if the usual energy barons are excluded from (cooperative capitalism) production and marketing, at less than half current retail!

Now, if that was our combined international response, where China could please itself? Be with us or against us?

Then it would not take too long for Mr Putin would run out of the money he is using to fund his expansionist military adventures, with the accompanying mind boggling genocide!?

What prevents any of this?

Arguably conflicted pollies with quite massive investments in current fossil fuel provision!?

And not too different from those prewar UK industrialists who had huge investments in German steel production and argued loud and long against going to war with Mr Hitler for fear of the personal financial reprecussions!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Friday, 11 March 2022 10:22:47 AM
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Applying sanctions is basically the mentality of bullies that "if you do not behave how we want, you will suffer." If those targeted do not see good reason to change their behaviour for reasons other than stopping or reducing punishment suffered, the first things they look for is ways around sanctions and ways to reduce adverse effects from them. Also, ways to reduce susceptability to possible future sanctions. Seems plenty of examples of each of the above. Then also bullies may not properly consider how in both short and long term sanctions they impose may also hurt themselves and/or their friends in significant ways. Also sometimes is possibility of target imposing stronger retaliatory sanctions. eg If Need to carefully consider possibilities re "Laws of unintended consequences." Sometimes simplistic measures intended to address complex perceived problems can have largely the opposite long term effects to those intended.
Posted by mox, Friday, 11 March 2022 12:24:41 PM
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Mox. Given sanctions don't work and are easily gotten around/have unintended consequences? What would stop the unprovoked attack on a peaceful non aggressive neighbour? Ramping up the nuclear option?

Right up to code red and the launch countdown started? Putin (the madman) seems quite ready for a nuclear war with the US and mutual assured destruction? And will go on claiming more and more of the old imperial Russian empire?

Until the world as it must, goes to war with, by then, a much stronger and better resourced Russia! And the conflict far more destructive for the world? However it ends or starts?

Can't see a good ending for anyone from this unprovoked and entirely unnecessary attack on a peaceful and much smaller non threatening neighbour!?

And shows the folly of disarming the law abiding civilian population! Where the cost of an unprovoked attack would extract too high a price on the aggressor!

I can't see how anyone can defend the indefensible! With a, because the moon is made of green cheese, type rational? Or something even less rational, as in this instance!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Saturday, 12 March 2022 9:50:53 AM
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The author is correct in his reasoning. He could have also added that the winner in this war will be - like in all wars - the one who cares more about the outcome.

The fact that the Appeaser in Chief dozing off in the Oval Office cares little for US assurances made to the Soviet Union (upon its demise) and cares even less for a large nation desperately wanting to join the EU/NATO, shows that he and the NATO pygmies have long ago sown the seeds for Western decline.

They have started to harvest their crop.
Today Ukraine, tomorrow Transnistria, Moldova on Monday and Lithuania on Tuesday.
Posted by Jonathan J. Ariel, Saturday, 12 March 2022 10:50:11 AM
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Russia is only opposing NATO's advance into Ukrainian territory.
The consequences of this expansion were clear and NATO decided to ignore them.
This war was foreseeable and avoidable.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Saturday, 12 March 2022 12:23:47 PM
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