"Both need to confront tomorrow's challenge: China".

That says it all

I disagree, Putin's bluff, bluster and blackmail needs to be confronted with a buildup of NATO troops On the Ukraine/Russian border. Backed by missiles and warplanes that can and should respond with a shock and awe response.

And given enough sudden shock and awe, prevent any other nation, however mighty, from deciding they can hold any other nation to ransome with a display of military might!

One of the lessons of history is appeasement leads only to more and more outrageous demands, and territorial losses!
Alan B.

Russia threatening the Ukrainian border looks more like a military feint than an actual threat.

Ukraine is not known historically as little Russia without reason. An historical question between Ukraine and the Russian (Empire), should not involve Au.

To put too much significance to a build up of an insignificant number of Russian troops on the border in mid winter also makes little sense.
I doubt the Russians have forgotten Napoleons madness; Hitlers suicide missions in mid winter Russia etc.

More shades of panic than sensible analysis to me.

Dan

It has always seemed to me that Russia missed an opportunity when the
Communist system collapsed. Understandably most of those in government
positions were convinced anti-western apparatchiks.
So they were unlikely to want to adopt a policy of Russia joining the
rest of Europe in close trade and political ties.
Imagine how powerful Europe would be if the Eu included all of Europe.
The system was authoritarian orientated and not democratic like western Europe.
So the opportunity was lost.

If China is thwarted in Asia and the Pacific it may revive its interest in Siberia.
All that country with forests and open ranges may look to be a literal walk in the park.
At the time of the last confrontation between Russia and China in
Siberia other politics got in the way.
Russia is not in a good financial position at present so China may
feel it is time to add another vassal state.

Russia is now the most powerful force because its people have what the USA & China are missing, patriotic people !

Thank you for a thoughtful article - but some additional comments:

1. It's Kyiv, and not Kiev. About time journalists and commentators began to use the Ukrainian approved spelling of their capital city!

2. At the signing of the Budapest Memorandum of Understanding in 1994,Ukraine, as the world's third largest nuclear power, gave up its arsenal on the proviso that its independence and its territorial integrity would be assured AND PROTECTED. As an independent nation it should decide whether it wishes closer alliances to the West, and whether it wishes to apply for acceptance into NATO.

3. Ukraine's territorial integrity was violated with the unilateral actions of Russia in invading Eastern Ukraine in 2014 and maintaining constant and illegal conflict to the present day. The West knows this, but has mainly stayed silent.

4. Russia unilaterally has annexed Crimea to its own territory, and again, except for some halfhearted protests and ineffective sanctions, has gotten away with this criminal act that violates both the agreements of 1994, and emboldens Russia to try to do the same with the Luhansk-Donbass area in this present dispute.

6. Putin is not a fool but reads the political scenario very well. He knows that the West - and especially USA - does not wish to go to war - particularly given every major military failure since Vietnam. Losing Afghanistan to the Taliban has fully dispirited the US and its allies from venturing into a possible major conflict - especially with an enemy that possesses nuclear weapons.

7. We do not yet know where this will end up - but the author of this piece is right in this regard: Ukrainians will NOT allow Russian forces to invade unopposed. Russian forces better be prepared for massive losses, and better have a huge supply of body-bags for their dead, IF Putin persists in this reckless venture. That, Putin and his military commanders, can count on!

Thanks KS for that thoughtful article. Just some further thoughts. There is arguably a historical precedent in the Cuban Missile Crisis, in that the Crisis reinforced the "sphere of influence" doctrine. In other words, following the resolution of the Crisis, it was tacitly accepted that Russia (then the USSR) should not have the right to place missiles in the backyard of the USA, namely, Cuba. If the USA is able to rely on this doctrine, so too logically can Russian Federation. NATO ought not to be extending its reach right up to the borders of the Russian Federation. By all means, the Ukraine has the right to apply to join NATO. However the responsible action for NATO would be not to agree to the application.

"An immediate step would be for NATO to state that Ukraine would not be accepted as a member. This would honour the agreement from three decades ago."

No, that's the ONLY step.

Sick of hearing this BS that Russia invaded and annexed Ukraine.

What happened was that the US including Clinton, Biden, McCain and Soros engineered the 2014 Maidan and overthrow of Ukraine and it's then President Yanukovych.

If you go back in time to Ukraines Parliament prior to 2014, a MP even stood up and stated publicly that the US was trying to overthrow the country; go back and listen to Victoria Nulands leaked phone calls and comments.

I could go dig some videos up.

TechCamp Kyiv 2012 (c/o the US Embassy).
http://youtu.be/bpIoBUDuL3U
The U.S. Embassy hosted TechCamp Kyiv at Master Klass Cultural Center in Kyiv, Ukraine on September 12 and 13. TechCamp Kyiv marks the 14th TechCamp supporting Secretary Clinton's Civil Society 2.0, an initiative which builds the digital literacy of civil society organizations around the world.

What is Civil Society 2.0?
It an app they used to allow protestors to co-ordinate - and to conduct OVERTHROWS of government.
They also used it in Occupy Wall St a year or so earlier.

Ukraine after the Maidan tried to ban use of the Russian language.
That's when Putin went in and secured Crimea, and the Crimean people VOTED to leave Ukraine and join Russia.

- You all understand the UN right of self determination don't you? -

The US tried to take over a country JUST AS IT ALWAYS DOES, but Putin threw a little spanner in the works with Crimea.

If I was Putin, I'd just turn the gas off, simple.
No need to use a Sarmat 2, which would wipe Ukraine OFF THE MAP

A brief response to the Armchair Critic:

1. As a sovereign and independent nation, Ukraine should determine its own present and future, rather than become either a pawn used by Russia or the west for its own political ends. Its wish to align itself to the west via NATO membership, should be respected.

2. Russia has dominated Ukraine since the reign of Catherine the Great! The process of Russification under Stalin is well documented where vast numbers of Ukrainians were either killed or deported to other Soviet Republics where Russian became the common language. Ukrainian was forbidden to be taught or used under harsh penal penalties for decades, and Russian de facto became the lingua franca of the land. It is only since securing independence that there has been a new resurgence of interest and uptake of the Ukrainian language in education, business and politics. Interesting to note that in the video clip of the TechCamp, only three people spoke Ukrainian – the rest spoke Russian.

3. Even after independence, Russia and its oligarchs exerted (and still exert) considerable influence in the political sphere. Yanukovych was nothing more than a criminal Russian stooge doing Putin’s biddings, and the Maidan was a popularist movement to re-establish genuine democracy in Ukraine. And by the way, both Russian AND Ukrainian are recognised as accepted languages in contemporary Ukraine.

4. Crimea has enormous strategic significance for Russia, and any planned invasion of Ukraine. It is facile to say that Crimeans “voted” to leave Ukraine and join Russia. Our honorable “Armchair critic” seems to have little comprehension of a political system where “voting” means very little, and where, the ruling party always “wins” decisively in all elections. Also see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNIU6TRsRzk

5. Ironic that his comments end with a question re self-determination, while the content of his critique seems to deny that very process to Ukraine. Putin is an ex-KGB master political manipulator and is well-aware of global consequences of his present machinations in eastern Ukraine. It still remains to be seen where this game will end: a stalemate or a bloodbath. His move!

If you join NATO, you won't be independent anyway.
You'll be a vassal state of the US, and if there is some kind of war;
Which will be a whole lot more likely when the US places missiles all over Ukraine aimed at Moscow;
Then Ukrainian dead will be piled up everywhere.
I support your right to be free from foreign interference, at least in some part, but I don't support you being free to place US controlled weapons all over Ukraine.

NATO should be disbanded, they create this kind of stuff TO JUSTIFY THEIR OWN EXISTENCE.

They're an army with no nation and a law unto themselves.
You think the NATO generals are there for your benefit?
They are there for themselves.

Furthermore if you want Ukrainian sovereignty respected and the right to decide you own path, then you should respect the same in regards to Crimea as well as the Donbass region

You backed the overthrow and and it didn't turn out how you planned.
The West tried to deny Russia its Black Sea ports, had it all thought out, but obviously not well enough.

The West plays checkers and Putin plays Chess.

The US is only using you to further their agenda against Russia.
They're only doing it because they're drunk on meddling in other nations affairs the same as what you complain about with Russia, only the difference is Ukraine historically IS Russia.

The moment Soros came down and helped overthrow the country, that was shorty before the Biden's went over there and robbed your nation blind.
Not to mention all the dirty stuff they were doing on the sly by doing it out of your country instead of in the US.

Your jumping out of the frypan, and into the fire.

Putin's not going to invade, it's posturing.
But he might supply more arms to the Eastern regions.

If the West goes and puts more missiles all over Ukraine, which aren't just for defense, and can be easily be used for offense, then you might force Putins hand to act then.

Do you not realise the US does NOT keep its word?

My guess is those in the West who liked exploiting your country, would very much also like to exploit the vast wealth contained in Russias 11% of global landmass in which it holds, especially since it will be opened up more as the climate becomes warmer.

You're just putting your hand up to get caught in the middle of it.
you think you're fighting for independence, but your just being used to further an agenda that seeks to rob nations of their wealth, or sanction them, when that doesn't work out.

I wish to thank Armchair Critic for his two hysterical replies! Just a couple of questions:

So you are saying that the 30 nations that presently are in NATO are not independent? And if they are, then why would Ukraine not be independent too?

Are those 30 nations all vassal states to the USA? And what does that mean to you? Australians are linked to various alliances – does that make Australia a vassal country to the US or to the UK?

Given the fact that in 1994 Ukraine rid itself of all nuclear weapons, with the understanding that its sovereignty and independence with secure borders would be guaranteed, why are you immediately making such negative assumptions? Do all the NATO powers (including Poland) bristle with weapons all pointed at Moscow? And if not, then why would Ukraine be an exception?

As soon as you mention Soros, you immediately disqualify yourself as a legitimate commentator, but rather enter into the murky domain of conspiracy theorists! Unfortunately, most of your “assumptions” are easily challenged and disputed.

In fact, do you even speak or understand Ukrainian, Russian or Polish? You seem to have some understanding of English – but on what basis do you make these fantastic claims and fanatical judgments? I, not only am fluent in those languages, but also in Italian, German and English – and base my observations on keen analysis of contemporary news as given by this multinational press. There is nothing wrong with being an Armchair Critic but one has to have some solid basis or evidence before pontificating on something as vital as this. Thank you.

"So you are saying that the 30 nations that presently are in NATO are not independent?"
Not as far as their military is concerned, no.
Do you understand that when you become a NATO country you don't get to decide your defense heads, they have to be approved by Washington.

Australia has treaties, not NATO, we don't need to seek approval from the US for who we choose as our heads of defense.
- But not that it matters, because if the US told Australia to "Go jump", Australia would ask "How high?" anyway.
Furthermore we're a core member of 5 Eyes, a collective to get around laws preventing a nation spying on its own citizens - by spying on each others citizens.
- Not to mention AUKUS the recent treaty that was made.

"Do all the NATO powers (including Poland) bristle with weapons all pointed at Moscow?"
Romania, Poland, Germany, Baltic states... yes probably.
The West wants to get rid of Putin.

Seriously, picking on China on the one side of the continent and Russia on the other.
How do you think all this is going to work out?

http://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/russian-president-putin-arrives-beijing-winter-olympics-state-tv-2022-02-04/

"Russia and China coordinated their positions on Ukraine during a meeting between their foreign ministers, Wang Yi and Sergei Lavrov, in Beijing on Thursday, the Chinese foreign ministry said."

Putin asked NATO to bar Ukraine from joining and he warned that actions would have to be taken if the US ignored its end of cold war agreements.
Are you deliberately trying to start a World War?

I'm a bit rusty on Ukraine but I can sharpen up, as I have good sources.

Crimea Votes Overwhelmingly to Join Russia
http://youtu.be/95-QItX3I5A

If I were Putin, I'd turn the gas off to Europe and Ukraine and sell the whole lot to China.

Let the whole of Europe freeze, and let it be the United States fault, for stopping the Nordstream pipeline, for waging economic war, and threatening stability in the region.

Opinions will change real fast when people are freezing to death in their beds.

Let the US deal with the mess, and let Europe enjoy higher prices when the do get their gas back.

Then, go peel off another chunk of Ukraine.
Let the Donbass region vote for self determination as permitted under UN law and then they can join the Russians they're aligned with as well.

Let the Neo-Nazi's of Svoboda and Right Sector as well as the likes of their western scumbag mates reap what they sowed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14th_Waffen_Grenadier_Division_of_the_SS_(1st_Galician)
These people are Neo-Nazis because they're descendants of those who were Nazi's.

"The United States has accused Moscow of a plot to fabricate an attack by Ukrainian forces that Russia could use as a pretext to take military action against its neighbour."

Hillary's favorite book is 'Rules for Radicals' by Saul Alinsky.
Part of those 'Rules' are to accuse others of doing what you are doing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals

I'd bet a 50/50 chance there will be a false flag event in a month
But it's likely to be conducted by US actors though, not Russian.

AC,

I find your pro-Putin stance difficult to fathom since at no point has Ukraine been approached to join NATO, and Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine has seen the unnecessary deaths of about 50 000 people and untold misery for the ethnic Russians in the east of Ukraine now residing in the ruins of the separatist area.

Secondly, the so-called promise not to advance an inch east by Baker:
1) It was in a discussion about the reunification of Germany and not the entire occupied eastern Europe.
2) It was not formalised in any document
3) It was clear in further documents that: "The U.S.S.R. was never offered a formal guarantee on the limits of NATO expansion post-1990, "John Lough, the research associate who authored the section, wrote. "Moscow merely distorts history to help preserve an anti-Western consensus at home."

Thirdly, Putin is just trying his luck hoping to trick the West into appeasement. However, I believe that Nato is quite prepared to call his bluff as the invasion of west Ukraine will not involve ethnic Russians but violently anti-Russian Ukrainians who may not be able to stop the invasion but with the 100 tonnes of shoulder-launched anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons from the US will cost Moscow a fortune in dead soldiers and destroyed equipment. With the massive sanctions that are planned, as well Russia has little to gain and much to lose.

With the huge open border between Nato countries and Ukraine, a well-armed guerilla action against the occupation forces will put Moscow in the same position as with Afghanistan that bled Russia dry and precipitated the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Well written, "shadow minister!"

Whether Putin gives the order to attack still remains to be seen, but he will have to cope with the angry sentiments of the Russian people, when thousands upon thousands of dead Russian troops are returned home. Having traveled right through Ukraine for 26 days in 2019 (just prior to Covid), I can assure you that even Russian speaking Ukrainians will put up a fierce and stiff resistance to any occupying forces.

Putin may, in the short-term, even win the war - but is that worth losing his own power, and perhaps his own life,as a consequence? Do not underestimate the will of the Ukrainian people - with or without NATO and the West - to sacrifice all, to protect Ukrainian sovereignty and independence.