"Both need to confront tomorrow's challenge: China".

That says it all

I disagree, Putin's bluff, bluster and blackmail needs to be confronted with a buildup of NATO troops On the Ukraine/Russian border. Backed by missiles and warplanes that can and should respond with a shock and awe response.

And given enough sudden shock and awe, prevent any other nation, however mighty, from deciding they can hold any other nation to ransome with a display of military might!

One of the lessons of history is appeasement leads only to more and more outrageous demands, and territorial losses!
Alan B.

Russia threatening the Ukrainian border looks more like a military feint than an actual threat.

Ukraine is not known historically as little Russia without reason. An historical question between Ukraine and the Russian (Empire), should not involve Au.

To put too much significance to a build up of an insignificant number of Russian troops on the border in mid winter also makes little sense.
I doubt the Russians have forgotten Napoleons madness; Hitlers suicide missions in mid winter Russia etc.

More shades of panic than sensible analysis to me.

Dan

It has always seemed to me that Russia missed an opportunity when the
Communist system collapsed. Understandably most of those in government
positions were convinced anti-western apparatchiks.
So they were unlikely to want to adopt a policy of Russia joining the
rest of Europe in close trade and political ties.
Imagine how powerful Europe would be if the Eu included all of Europe.
The system was authoritarian orientated and not democratic like western Europe.
So the opportunity was lost.

If China is thwarted in Asia and the Pacific it may revive its interest in Siberia.
All that country with forests and open ranges may look to be a literal walk in the park.
At the time of the last confrontation between Russia and China in
Siberia other politics got in the way.
Russia is not in a good financial position at present so China may
feel it is time to add another vassal state.

Russia is now the most powerful force because its people have what the USA & China are missing, patriotic people !

Thank you for a thoughtful article - but some additional comments:

1. It's Kyiv, and not Kiev. About time journalists and commentators began to use the Ukrainian approved spelling of their capital city!

2. At the signing of the Budapest Memorandum of Understanding in 1994,Ukraine, as the world's third largest nuclear power, gave up its arsenal on the proviso that its independence and its territorial integrity would be assured AND PROTECTED. As an independent nation it should decide whether it wishes closer alliances to the West, and whether it wishes to apply for acceptance into NATO.

3. Ukraine's territorial integrity was violated with the unilateral actions of Russia in invading Eastern Ukraine in 2014 and maintaining constant and illegal conflict to the present day. The West knows this, but has mainly stayed silent.

4. Russia unilaterally has annexed Crimea to its own territory, and again, except for some halfhearted protests and ineffective sanctions, has gotten away with this criminal act that violates both the agreements of 1994, and emboldens Russia to try to do the same with the Luhansk-Donbass area in this present dispute.

6. Putin is not a fool but reads the political scenario very well. He knows that the West - and especially USA - does not wish to go to war - particularly given every major military failure since Vietnam. Losing Afghanistan to the Taliban has fully dispirited the US and its allies from venturing into a possible major conflict - especially with an enemy that possesses nuclear weapons.

7. We do not yet know where this will end up - but the author of this piece is right in this regard: Ukrainians will NOT allow Russian forces to invade unopposed. Russian forces better be prepared for massive losses, and better have a huge supply of body-bags for their dead, IF Putin persists in this reckless venture. That, Putin and his military commanders, can count on!