Banjo Paterson,

Imagine this:

NEWS FLASH . . . . . . . CHINA INVADES TAIWAN

Surprise, surprise! Who would have guessed!

Banjo said; They colonised Asian territory, transplanted European culture

Ahh, another victim of Mercator's projection of the world.
Australia is not in Asia, and is in fact on the other side of the world.
No doubt when you went to school they had a map of the world
on the wall and you believed it.
Info for you; Indonesia and the Philipines are not in Asia.
Australia is 33% larger than shown on Mercator's projection.
Russia is about half the size as shown.
Never fly or sail off with someone who has a Mercator map.
You will fall off the edge of the world.

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Dear Bazz,

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You wrote :

« Australia is not in Asia .. »
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Thanks for that, Baz. Yes, strictly speaking, in conventional geographical terms, neither Australia nor New Zealand is presently in Asia.

They are on separate tectonic plates to Asia. But even for the geographers, both countries are an integral part of the Asia-Pacific region, also known as Apac (Asia-Pacific).

And, as you may know, the tectonic plate we happen to be sitting on is gradually traveling north into what is currently known as Asia in conventional geographical terms. We are riding on what we might nostalgically and romantically call “a slow boat to China” :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZfWIXE7Fx4&ab_channel=dvvreeswijk

In fact, it’s so slow it is estimated that it will take us about 60 million years to reach our final destination. In 60 million years we will be able to walk on dry land across the border from Australia to continental China. Australia and China will have become one and the same continent.

So maybe, it’s a little premature to say that we’re actually part of Asia proper right now but it won’t be all that long before we are. Let’s say that, right now, we’re located in the outer suburbs of Asia and “en route” to move closer in.

Here is a video of our inward, north-bound journey “on a slow boat to China” :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hos7w8xrcEs&ab_channel=TechInsider

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Dear Mr. Opinion,

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You wrote :

1. « You fail to see the place of the Uighurs in imperial Chinese history. »

I certainly don’t pretend to be an expert on that question, Mr. Opinion, but I have taken an interest in it, particularly over the past few months.
From what I can gather, your brief description more or less corresponds to my understanding of the situation. But, again, the similarities of colonisation and assimilation of indigenous peoples in Xinjiang and Australia are manifest.
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2. « Imagine this: NEWS FLASH . . . . . . . CHINA INVADES TAIWAN »

It can’t be totally ruled out, and I’m sure China’s warlords have been working on it for years. Russia’s successful takeover of Crimea in 2014 has probably been closely examined as a good example of how they would like to take over Taiwan. No bloodshed, no counterattack, no military intervention by the US or NATO, no war. Just a peaceful annexation of what Russia considered to be historically and culturally part of its territory.

If it were to work for the Chinese in respect of Taiwan, it would have to be of a similar blitzkrieg (lightning attack) style, well-planned, well-organised, well-executed, and the timing would have to be right to coincide with the most favourable political conditions possible to avoid any intervention from the US and NATO.

The Chinese are neither crazy nor stupid. They do not want war any more than we do. As much as they want to recuperate Taiwan, I doubt that they will make any rash decisions or take any undue risks of failure. Chinese detest loss of face more than anything else. They will more likely bide their time – until all the indicators turn green.

At the same time, I’m sure they have not totally given up on diplomacy. If they can reach their objectives by peaceful means, they will surely do whatever they have to in order to succeed.

Nobody knows the Chinese better than the Chinese themselves.

Who knows what the future will bring ?

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Banjo,

Taiwan is a country of 25m people who vigorously oppose integration with China. It has an army of 290 000 with all adult males having military training and access to weapons in the event of an invasion. Their stock of anti-aircraft and anti-ship weapons is significant and it was estimated that the CCP would need an invasion force of at least 1m to have any chance of success. Any such build-up would be spotted well in advance and preparations made by the US to sink any troop carriers. To top this, there are 30 000 US troops based there with a massive US base 500km away at Okinawa. In short, any invasion would be a blood bath for which China would pay a huge price.

At the same time China's south sea islands would be exposed, as would its western flank to India, and it would almost certainly face a blockade of any shipping for an extended period.

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Dear shadowminister,

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Yes, on paper, the ROC’s military defence seems to be fairly dissuasive. Whether everything would go according to plan, if war did actually break out, is another matter.

The US has no formal obligation to defend the ROC and it’s not anywhere near the top of the list of its most vital interests – quite the contrary, the US recognizes Taiwan as forming part of China.

The US interest in the ROC is more of an idealistic and humanitarian nature. Perhaps insufficient to justify US military intervention under international law as it could be judged to represent an unlawful intrusion in the domestic affairs of a sovereign Chinese nation.

So far, the Biden administration has voiced its support of the ROC in its resistance to the repeated acts of intimidation by the Beijing regime, but it remains to be seen if “Sleepy old Joe” would be prepared to risk an all-out war with China if it carried out its threat of invasion of Taiwan.

In the final analysis, sacrificing the ROC might be considered a safer option. If Taiwan were to integrate China, the US would no longer have to protect it, and the risk of a major war with China would subside considerably. Tensions throughout the region and its periphery would be allayed, and diplomacy would be revived.

Despite the capacity of the ROC to defend itself, as you describe so well, I doubt that it could resist an all-out military attack by China without the massive direct military intervention of the US in a timely manner.

I am by no means an expert on military matters, but it is the rapidity of the US reaction that seems problematic to me. It’s a decision that would be fraught with extremely grave consequences – which means that it must be taken at the highest level, by the president of the United States himself – and the delay of execution of the decision once it has been taken and relayed to the operatives, must be almost as rapid as the attack itself.

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