Most new US presidents get tested by their adversaries, especially those who are obviously weak like the current incumbent. We also can't forget that Biden is also probably beholden to Peking and Moscow because of the bribery that was funnelled to him via his son.

Under Trump both these powers were restrained and contained. But as soon as Trump was removed, those constraints were unleashed. Biden was barely seated in the Oval office when China started testing Taiwan's defences. Putin has been anxious to follow-up his Crimea successes by putting additional pressure on Ukraine but had been unwilling to tempt a Trump response. He now longer fears a US response.

Just this week, Putin's mere rhetoric was sufficient to chase the US out of the Black Sea. That will obviously and absolutely embolden him. Whatismore, Trump's oil policies were suppressing oil prices which are the main earner for Russia. Oil prices have risen ~50% since the election due to Biden's policies and this further strengthens Putin hand.

As to China, they think that have Biden's measure and are free to pursue their longer term regional goals. Again, the election was barely over when they started to give Australia a spanking.

Its all well and good to suggest Australia stand up to the Chinese in pursuit of broaden western goals and that would make sense if we could be confident that the US has our back. I have no such confidence. The Democrats in the US are laser focused on consolidating their perpetual rule and the Republicans leadership, such as they are, are trying to resist it. Foreign issues are way down their lists of concerns.

I'm of the view that we need to keep our heads down for next while, doing nothing to rile China while trying to preserve what we can of our values. It may be that the US will return to its mission as the preserver of western values in 2024 under DeSantis or Trump or someone similar, but that's a long shot and if it doesn't happen, we have to align ourselves to the Chinese century.

mhaze,

So you want to kowtow to China.

Do you have a choice given that you and the other members of the pro-China camp let millions of them into the country in order to get their cash?

I suppose to people like you all that matters is whether or not you have the money.

Funny how quiet things are about Hong Kong all of a sudden !

individual,

It's back where it belongs just like Taiwan will be before much longer.

.

Dear Graham,

.

Many thanks for that excellent, informative article.

China certainly seems to be busting out all over but, for the time being, its “aggression” has been limited to international trade and commerce, foreign investment, and, more controversially, the recuperation, occupation, control, and integration of peoples and territories over which it esteems to have historically legitimate claims.

Apart from that, its record of incursions into foreign territories has been historically relatively limited. Nothing like that of Japan which has been the worst aggressor in the Pacific region by a long shot.

The following article by Antonio Carpio that appeared in the Philippine Daily Inquirer on 20 August 2020 provides the details :

http://opinion.inquirer.net/132856/chinese-invasions-past-and-present#ixzz6fiu2Id7L

At the risk of appearing naïve to some, I must say I can’t imagine China invading Australia or launching a major military attack against us. That would be like an elephant declaring war on a mosquito.

The war would not be between us and China, but between the US and China.

I sincerely hope that whatever governments succeed each other over the coming millennia will adopt that concept as the solid-rock foundation on which to conduct their dealings with our Chinese friends, partners, and competitors – to our mutual benefit.

I feel that Australia and New Zealand have an important diplomatic role to play In Asia between the two major players, the US and China, and we should work closely together to harmonise our discourse, our policy, and our acts.

We need to place this high on the political agenda of our two countries with the common, single objective of gaining the trust, confidence, and utmost respect of the two superpowers – not only in our own interests but also in their interests and in the interest of the whole Pacific region and beyond.

The issues are complex. The challenges are multiple. The stakes are high. And the tensions are palpable. The current strategy, on both sides, of political brinkmanship, has already gone too far. We must promote conciliation, understanding, and cooperation instead.

And begin by setting the example. Our future depends on it.

.

Former deputy Liberal leader and foreign minister,
Julie Bishop has warned against "unnecessarily
offending our largest customer."

She has called on the Australian government not to get
involved in unnecessary "tit for tat" exchanges.

She's predicted the relationship will remain frosty for
an extended period of time ( a few years) but she says
"the way forward for the Australian government is to
continue to protect our interests and wait for the
temperature to cool down."

She stressed the need for Australia to re-engage with
China. She doubted whether China would invade any
other territory that it was simply a display of power
rather than an imminent threat of war.

The same applies to Russia. On April 14, Washington
cancelled the deployment of US warships in the Black
Sea. A signal that while President Biden is willing
to stand up to Putin. Washington is also leaving the
door open for dialogue.

The threat of an invasion and a military escalation in
the Ukraine can't be completely ruled out but the
way Russia is going the development as stated regarding
China is probably a deliberate display of power rather
than an imminent threat of war.