"US China rivalry". We hear that so much that we tend to forget that it's also Australia China rivalry; Western world China rivalry. And here we are, with our buffoon of a Prime Minister bleating that he won't take sides with our greatest - might be our only - ally against a totalitarian, Communist China. The fool of a man thinks that we are merely spectators watching a boxing match between the US and China.

Should we "risk severing already strained ties with China"? My oath we should! Our safety and sovereignty is more important than listening to China-dependent billionaires.

How much longer before Morrison wakes up to the fact that China's bullying and threats to Australia are actually aggressive and part of the new Cold War. He is not only ignoring the China-US conflict: he is ignoring the China-Australia conflict, apparently thinking that 'she'll be right' as he buries his head in the sand, hoping his upwards pointing arse won't be kicked.

"Whatever we do must be calibrated, meaningful and co-ordinated with allies".

You are talking to a Morrison government? You must be joking!

No...Taiwan is the twin of the Cuban missile crisis of the 60’s.

As the US was on the moral high road in that crisis, so now is China in its nervousness with events which are similar in Taiwan.

Defending Democracy as the excuse for agitating China’s concern with US encroachment in Taiwan falls flat, as it does in Hong Kong.

China should be pushed back in the obvious places where its money won power and domination, such as Asia and including Australia.

Nationalising Chinese assets will be more logical and send a more profound message than carrying out the obvious stupid of a deliberate confrontation on its door step.

Dan

Anything is possible right now! A minefield and your worst nightmare if "leaders" are virtually asleep at the wheel, or have an agenda? Roll on Jan 20! And hold your breath until then!
Alan B.

Hear, hear and well said, Dan!
Alan B.

If any shooting starts around Taiwan, we will be far too busy trying to find a way of getting food to the supermarkets to feed our bloated cities population, to be very interested in fighting anyone.

Our fuel supply from Singapore would dry up instantly, & we would be busy digging out the old bullock drays from the museums where some are now stashed, & anything else that could carry food.

Windmills would sit idle as they broke down, no spare parts, & I wonder if we still have the capacity to build new coal fired generators, or if they have to come from China or Korea. Fat chance there.

Governments have shut down coal power, & allowed the oil companies to close our oil refineries, so we are stuffed if any trouble arises.

We have large reserves of shale oil, & should have done a Trump to develop those, & become self sufficient in energy. Not our woke mob. The fools have swallowed the woke tomfoolery of alternate power, despite it's mathematical impossibility of carrying the load, & left us the beggars of the South Pacific.

If such a war started half our major cities population would starve, & half the rest would kill each other fighting over food. It would not be nuclear weapons that killed us, but the fact that some fools wanted a service economy, & forgot the basic requirements of such a society was food & energy.

Alan Dupont seems to be arguing a plausible situation.

1. If there were a one month+ buildup to what looked like an attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan then:

- by the 2030s one or two of our future Attack class submarines (being intentionally built for much longer missions than our current Collins subs) could play a part in deterring and isolating Chinese naval and merchant fleet vessels.

and

- one of our a Hobart class destroyers and future Hunter class frigates could be part of the two US lead Japanese, South Korean, Taiwanese Task Forces defending Taiwan and putting pressure on China.

2. But if China successfully launched a surprise attack on Taiwan. In that case the war would be over in China's favour before any Australian submarines or surface vessels could contribute to US/Western fleets.

China has enough short-medium range ballistic and cruise missiles already aimed at Taiwanese targets to devastate Taiwan's military and civilian sectors making a very short conflict possible.

Invading Taiwan is a lot more difficult than it sounds as it involves moving a lot of men and equipment to the shores of Taiwan in ships that are essentially sitting ducks for anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. Taiwan with the help of the US has stocked up on missiles and aircraft and has strongly fortified the western coast.

Secondly, with US satellites the chances of China being able to build up an invasion force sufficient for surprise attack without being noticed is zero and with the major US base at Okinawa only 500km away, the US response can be airborne before the first ships are halfway. That the massive 7th fleet with 3 carrier arms is only a few days away makes the chances of success very low.

I agree with Hasbeen: we must be prepared to support ourselves in terms of energy and food.

Being called to do our moral duty and support Taiwan against Chinese attack/invasion is not an IF, but a WHEN. We may or may not care to be on America's side, but when evil attacks we should certainly take the side of righteousness - and so will God!

Great article Alan Dupont and very timely. Your conclusion is inescapable if Australia is to retain its sovereignty. It might cost the nation in the short term, but at least Australia will still exist as an independent nation in the longer term.