Models. Models. Models. People should have learnt from the climate model nonsense. But no: goldfish memories are the order of the day in good old Oz.

What if they were really-really right? And how dare you presume your own life is worth more than those older medicos, who died treating presumptuous, pompous, VIP, postulators like yourself?

One thinks, you believe, we should have just let it rip? If only to prove Professor whoopsie correct? What then? And as our ICU's were overwhelmed and medicos started to drop like flies? What then genius?

With a virus like the common cold, we none of us ever develop immunity, that then as viruses do, goes on to mutate into a vastly more virulent strain that hits a new younger cohort? Given acquired immunity may peter out in 6-7 months time?

What if it became a new wave and surging as never before throughout the community?

There's a lot of unknown unknowns and what-ifs here, to be as (I'm ok Jack) caviler with other folk's lives as you seem to be?

That said, I now believe this virus was developed in a lab and designed to eliminate an older and immunity compromised cohort in an ageing China. And possibly a genetically engineered coronavirus, common cold, with some elements, smallpox and say black water fever proteins, attached to it?

And we'd have been none the wiser, except one or two Asmpyomatic carriers went aboard to the world and started this highly contagious pandemic!? Remember, just one single Chinese tourist, started the Italian pandemic!

We can thank God and the experts that we here got off as lightly as we seem to have? Even if our presumably conflicted pollies were a little slow out of the box? Then realised, hat they, mostly representing an older cohort, were in the front line!

And suddenly no expense or effort was spared? Sorry if that sounds cynical or shines a spotlight on our political class that's less than complimentary.

Y'll have a nice day now, y'hear.
Alan B.

Alan B.,
You misunderstand the situation with the common cold. There are about a hundred different strains of it, and we never get the same one twice. And there are just as many similar conditions (such as seal flu) which are usually mistaken for the common cold.

So we now know that the author of this essay is ALLWAYS right huh?

ALWAYS, not ALLWAYS..........maybe both

Adian: Did I mention a particular strain? Genius.
Alan B.

Yep, but...speaking of historic moments in time, out of every bad comes a good.

In the end the consequences of the fourteenth century plague gave us future generations, hastened advances in modern technology and a significant reduction in the power of the Catholic Church.

Hang in there.

Dan

At least Binoy Backpack hasn't come up with a virus story.

I know mention of the name Andrew Bolt causes apoplexy among some people. But the mature and serious among us would do well to watch his "Politicians 'freaked out' about plainly wrong coronavirus predictions" on Sky News.

If only there'd been some warning... http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=9129&page=0

I'm not of the view that we should entirely blame government for their initial reactions. They had very little data and were presented with very scary scenarios. Shoot first, ask questions later was probably the right call AT THE TIME.

But the world has changed and it seems pretty clear that, had they known then what we know now, they'd have pulled different levers. At the very least they should have included economists in the decision mix knowing that lockdown wasn't cost free.

My main beef now is that, with new and better knowledge, they are continuing policies that were based on faulty data. Its not in the nature of government to admit error. That is costing us dearly.

Dear mhaze,

"If only there'd been some warning..."

Oh what rubbish. The link you provided in that thread at the time had very little increases in mortality in the countries listed. It has now been updated and showed just how wrong your assessment was. Why on earth you thought you could tout in here is beyond belief.

We have an approaching flu season here and no country has yet experienced taking this disease through a full winter yet. The potential for this to get very pear shaped in the upcoming months is very real. We should only be relaxing restrictions very cautiously and absolutely no one should be rushing into this.

Of course we need to get the country back to work, & damn quickly.

Anyone else note it is the lefties who want to use this to cause as much pain & chaos as possible. As usual they hope to grab a few more leavers while chaos reigns, & they can avoid notice in the general panic.

According to this source:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

there have been 160,000 deaths from this virus. Currently, around 2.3 million people have tested positive.

So perhaps a bit different from the flu then.

And the US has barely reached its peak of infections yet, let alone its peak of deaths, although rallies to demand freedoms to get haircuts and massages might help to increase that, perhaps towards a second wave out there in Trump's heartland, a wave scattered across the length and breadth of the US where there are fewer resources and staff than in the big cities.

Nor has the virus really got into Africa or India or much of the developing world. This writer is a moron.

Nobody can tell the future, but what if the experts are more right than wrong ?

Joe

Sr,

You made claims about the data in that link which I'd already rebutted before you'd even made them. You misunderstood what the graphs were showing you and continue to do so. The fact is that data continues to show exactly what I originally said it showed. People are free to check that for themselves by following the link I offered.

Whatismore, the issue about that data was a minuscule part of my total post. But making a big deal of periphery is very SR, isn't it?

I'm not claiming any early or special insight into this even though I raised the points in this article three weeks ago. All I did was encapsulate thoughts that I'd picked-up on over the previous week or so.

There's little doubt that the models were hopelessly wrong about the early numbers when the early political decisions were taken, not than we can blame leaders for buying those predictions.

The only thing disconcerting about Australia's response was that it was based on a model that didn't model Australian circumstances or use Australian data. I think even Morrison was embarrassed by that.

The people who don't want restrictions lifted so that people can get to work and save what's left of the economy are: politicians and public servants, academics and ABC wafflers - all people secure in their jobs, with no pay cuts. Communists the lot of them.

'Nobody can tell the future, but what if the experts are more right than wrong ?'

It would certainly make a change Joe.

Runner,

We'll see, won't we ?

And, Ttbn, there are huge sections of the population who want restrictions in place as long as they are required, THEN lifted as soon as practicable, perhaps bit by bit, by age-group, purpose, region, etc.

Not just people who want to make a buck now, come what may, fascists and thugs the lot of them.

Or is it possible that most people are somewhere in between communists and fascists ?

Joe

"Or is it possible that most people are somewhere in between communists and fascists ?"

Being "between communists and fascists" is a dangerous spot to be. Just ask Poland.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland

Alan B.,
>Adian: Did I mention a particular strain? Genius.
No you didn't. and that's the problem.

You failed to comprehend that after you get a cold, you don't get immunity for a while and then lose it. You become immune to that strain of the cold virus for the rest of your life. But it doesn't, even for a day, give you any immunity to the other strains of the cold virus.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Hasbeen,
> Anyone else note it is the lefties who want to use this to cause as much pain & chaos as possible.
No, I think that's just the result of you assuming the worst of people based on their political stance... or possibly your assuming the people with the worst views to be lefties.

And what's all this about grabbing leavers? Is anyone trying to stop anyone else leaving anyone or anything? Did you mean levers? If so

...which ones?

Or is it possible that most people are somewhere in between communists and fascists ?
Loudmouth2,
Yep, they're the fence-sitters otherwise known as swinging voters ! They usually rise after a few years of a Conservative Govt refilling the coffers !

This thread focusses on remedies for the Trump Virus: and we now have a cure !

Trumpf has found a cure - if everybody injects themselves with disinfectant, it's all fixed :) It works with dishes, so why not with people ? I wouldn't be surprised if many of those red-necks strutting around with their machine-guns and demanding the 'freedom' to have haircuts and play golf, actually do that, injecting their entire families. The world is full of utter dumb-arses. Well, at least, the US is.

What is it about half-wits, who think that nobody else has ever thought of their 'brilliant' idea and tested it ?

In this case, maybe because nobody is actually THAT stupid. But we're talking about the US, so who knows ?

Joe

Just came by to drop this off http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoGp9vgeGRc
Average age of death from CV19 in Sweden = 81
Average lifespan in Sweden = 81

We're stealing our children's, and their children's, material futures while cowering in lockdown to extend some lives by a few months.

The next wave will be a dumper because we aren't manning up and building HI now, despite having considerable caseload capacity in place.

Time to get out and get Australia going again.