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The Forum > Article Comments > Bushfires and climate change > Comments

Bushfires and climate change : Comments

By Don Aitkin, published 17/1/2020

More houses have been lost than ever before, but then there are more people than we have ever had before, five times as many as we had a century ago.

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Is THAT all he's talking about? Congrats on interpreting what he was going on about! I didn't have the time, dealing with Mhaze and Lego's previous copy and pastes.

He kept saying 1000 year intervals in the other thread, not 100,000 year intervals. Guy's got a bad case of "I've discovered this amazing thing!" and needs to calm down and just read the Milankovitch wiki. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Or he could just watch this youtube on the "Temp leads carbon" crock which also explains Milankovitch cycles AND another one of those climate denier hymns.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWJeqgG3Tl8
Posted by Max Green, Wednesday, 22 January 2020 8:41:52 PM
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I wish those morons would stop calling them Climate deniers !
Nobody denies Climate, only morons dispute it !
Posted by individual, Thursday, 23 January 2020 8:38:35 AM
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I think i will go with what NASA has to say.
Chris Lewis,
But, isn't it NASA that burns the most holes in the ozone layer ?
Posted by individual, Thursday, 23 January 2020 8:40:13 AM
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Dear GrahamY,

You wrote;

“We can't model the water cycle particularly well, so no one is sure what the exact effect of water vapour is, but we do know that while it reradiates IR, it also cools through transfers of latent heat. So as water evaporates it has a cooling effect, and when it condenses it has a warming effect. It also reflects light back into space, which has a cooling effect. While we know the sign of the heating effect of CO2, we're not even sure what the sign is for water vapour. Some think it might even be a negative feedback.”

Firstly water vapour does not reflect light back into space. It like CO2 is invisible to light. It is only when it condenses into its liquid or solid form eg clouds does it do so.

The question becomes whether the increase in water vapour due to the increase in global temperature lead to an increase in cloud cover. Well the satellite measurements you are so fond of appear to say no. The records indicate a decreasing trend. Why? Well in order to form clouds there needs to be both water vapour and the appropriate temperatures.

While Southern Ocean is relatively low in humidity it's also low in temperature and therefore one of the most constantly cloudy places on earth.

It makes sense really. If every thing else stayed the same then an increase in water vapour wshould mean an increase in cloud cover. But in the real world it appears increasing temperatures may well be inhibiting cloud formation.

http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1265388/FULLTEXT01.pdf

“It is interesting to note that all CDRs show decreasing trends in global cloudiness (0.5–1.9% per decade, all trends being significant at the 95% level according to the Mann-Kendall test...”

“This study has shown that there is in general large agreement between the investigated CDRs in their description of global cloud cover and its trend. Nevertheless, there are also some remarkable deviations. Interesting is that all CDRs show a slow but steady decrease in global cloud fraction amounting to approximately 1% per decade...”
Posted by SteeleRedux, Thursday, 23 January 2020 9:45:52 AM
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