Nothing much of interest here, except for the writer's reminder of the "opaque" nature of China, and the need to keep close watch on the huge threat that it is.

Our trade minister was in china recently to progress the FTA. And reported when back here, that there was 16 trillion in the room!

16 trillion? Well given any sort of verifying forensic analysis, I'd say China has a long way to fall before we can say she's in real trouble, and what we see is an economy transitioning from an export driven economy to one more reliant on domestic consumption?

China needs to be smarter and create quite massive economic activity by also transitioning to endlessly sustainable, home grown energy.

Starting with biogas, produced from treating truly massive organic waste,and given scrubbing and its use in ceramic fuel cells, every home powered 24/7 indefinitely, with the world's cheapest energy and no smog, ever!

Then using the nutrient laden water from that process, underpin a very broad scale oil rich algae farming industry, that doesn't even require arable land!

Some algae are upto 60% oil, and there are types which naturally produce ready to use, jet fuel and or diesel.

The excrush biomass material from the fuel production, eminently suitable for a petrol replacing ethanol industry.

Moreover, the indians are working on a thorium reactor, and claim to be able to put a prototype 300MW reactor to work in 2016.

Now it might startle some folks to know that thorium is cheaper than coal?

Why?

Well coal fired power requires huge mining operations and millions of tons transported and burnt annually, whereas, thorium reactors can be powered for 25+ years on just a few tons of their fuel.

Smog and Co2 free thorium reactors, unlike enriched uranium reactors, consume most of their fuel, and the around 5% waste, is far less toxic and eminently suitable for long life space batteries.

If transitioning also includes creating and utilising massive clean energy and some of it endlessly sustainable and home grown. The real Chinese economic miracle has yet to start!?
Rhrosty.

China could electrify most of the streets that are us routes, and then replace the smoky diesels that ply those routes, with clean and comparatively silent electric trolley buses, that are almost as maneuverable as the old dirty diesels.

Parking metres could be wired to become user pays electric recharge stations for electric cars? And while that presents as a truly massive task, if anybody can do it, then China can! And in so doing create quite massive and stimulatory jobs growth!

And let's not mention the resultant clean air/health benefits that these proposals would create.
Rhrosty.

The author contradicts his own story. On the one hand, he paints an optimistic picture and in the next breath, or is it the other way round, he says that the good forecasts are doubtful because the Chinese lie to their masters and so the published statistics are bogus.
I don't expect the Chinese psyche to change and the bogus forecasts of good time will continue to be rolled out.

David

A great article Brian

Just shows that Chinese economic reporting is no worse than US real estate lenders or ratings agencies on Wall Street.

One less explored area is China's contradictory goals of using cheap (coal) energy to developed its economy vs the comparatively minute renewable energy sector.

Air and water pollution in China present a greater problem than any alleged contributions to global warming.

Without filters on Chinese smokestacks the health affects of pollution may grind the Chinese economy down to no growth. No growth would challenge the social fabric.

Pete

China knows it has to prioritise growth or else the leaders will lose the support of the people and there could be another revolution.

Because of this, up until now they've been careful to run their economy well, unlike most Western nations.

But there are signs this is slipping. Recently (unlike in 2008) China has been wasting a lot of money (and causing a lot of pollution) keeping lossmaking coal mines open and running lossmaking steel mills. The rapid economic growth may not be over yet, but the superior economic management appears to be.