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On worrying about China : Comments
By Brian Hennessy, published 2/3/2016And here we go again. The big-picture guys are predicting that China's long run of economic success is over, and that it is just a matter of time.
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Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 2 March 2016 11:05:01 AM
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China might muddle through. We'll see.
Xi wants a mirror that only reflects back what he wants to see, not reality. Alternatively, perhaps Xi sees reality but he is worried that if others see it, there will be growing doubt about the leadership's capabilities, even more capital flight and greater social unrest (Elizabeth Economiy, Xi Jinping's Virtual Political Reality, Asia Unbound, Council on Foreign Relations). http://blogs. cfr. org/asia/2016/02/26/xi-jinpings-virtual-political-reality. Starting as early as 2007 and 2008 before the global financial crisis, Chinese economists were almost united in having developed a really negative, pessimistic outlook on Chinese future's developmental prospect (Daniel Lynch, in conversation with Elizabeth Economy, Podcast: Understanding the Internal Debates Among China's Top Thinkers). http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2016/02/18/podcast-understanding-the-internal-debates-among-chinas-top-thinkers. Posted by Michi, Monday, 7 March 2016 11:29:05 PM
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However, we have seen this transition before, when the economic miracle that rebuilt a war torn and bankrupt Japan, with its cradle to the grave (democratic socialism) care of its citizens, to become the second largest economy in the world, was replaced by (mimi) individualism and extreme capitalism?
And then the flight of capital as the overleveraged and massively overvalued bubble burst! And a lesson China ought to observe and just not follow!
But instead get busier, building or making stuff (fast trains electric trolley buses etc and cheap alternative clean energy, to add to the quality of life of all her citizens, and a burgeoning tourist trade, rather than the self absorbed, overfeed and relatively prosperous (I'm all right Jackie) elite?
Rhrosty.