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North Korea's latest nuclear test is probably not for deterrence : Comments
By Liang Nah, published 12/1/2016North Korea has declared that its fourth nuclear test demonstrates the capability to defend itself against hostile powers. However, Pyongyang's motivations might have more to do with prestige and international bargaining leverage.
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Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 12 January 2016 8:46:32 AM
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'The prevailing winds are southeasterly in summer, and northwesterly in winter. The winds are stronger in winter, from December to February, than those of any other season. The land-sea breeze becomes dominant with weakened monsoon wind in the transitional months, September and October.'
Looks like young Kim will go for a November- March drop with favourable winds for his test match. Posted by nicknamenick, Tuesday, 12 January 2016 9:05:12 AM
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Hi there PLANTAGENET...
Thank you Pete for providing a brief explanation on the probable origin of the nuclear device North Korea tested recently. Like most ordinary folk I wouldn't know the difference between an Atomic or Hydrogen Bomb? To my utterly untrained mind, both represent the genesis for the total destruction of all mankind if either weapon were to be 'set off' in an impetuous, almost injudicious fashion? Certainly when any of these destructive devices are in the unsafe hands of this notoriously insecure North Korean leader! Posted by o sung wu, Tuesday, 12 January 2016 1:38:17 PM
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1. Where the author says "nuclear and even rocket antics can no longer work as a coercive negotiation tool to seize international attention" the author may be over optimistic.
Just such antics have ensured massive US political, weapons and financial support for Israel since 1967 when Israel revealed (to some) that it had the Bomb. Israel's semi-covert nuclear arsenal has stopped Arab countries (which had Russian support in the 1960s-70s) from even thinking of invading Israel. Equally Pakistan built nuclear weapons from the early 1990s and testing these weapons in 1998. This has benefitted Pakistan with a continuation of substantial Saudi and US political and financial aid up to the present day. 2. China is the only great power with sufficient influence over North Korea (NK) to persuade NK to suspend further nuclear weapons development or even consider nuclear disarmament. But the Kim Dynasty relies on the Bomb as a basis of its power. China would need to be prepared to change the Kim regime to something friendly towards the West. This may take the form of democratising NK. But China dare not risk such democratisation because that may restart the democracy movement in China. A neo-Tiananmen Square democracy movement in China may spell the end of the old Communist dictatorship and wreck the future prospects of the Communist's now upper-class and rich sons and daughters. China's economic downturn since 2015 has already caused "loss of face" of the communist regime in the eyes of ordinary Chinese. Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 12 January 2016 1:40:59 PM
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"The first ever Beijing Millions poker series, held at the Beijing Star Poker Club back in July 2014, could lead to an increasingly positive outlook on poker among the leadership in the People’s Republic of China."
The Jack of Knaves may be a royal routine to play against US in the south seas off Macao. With Japan and ROK focussed north China has a better hand. Posted by nicknamenick, Tuesday, 12 January 2016 2:19:32 PM
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Dear nick
WTF! Certainly this essential data on prevailing winds and poker will be the undoing of celestial Beijing. _______________________________________________________________ No worries o sung wu If Kimmy III (Jong-un) doesn't blow up the world (or Seoul) next week we should be most grateful. Pete http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2016/01/an-astronauts-tribute-to-david-bowie.html Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 12 January 2016 3:35:38 PM
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Just some minor quibbles.
Paragraph 1 "thermonuclear explosive or hydrogen bomb" thermonuclear explosive and hydrogen bomb are one and the same thing. The 4th test may also have been of a fusion boosted fission bomb that is an intermediate stage between Atomic (fission) Bomb and Hydrogen (fusion) Bomb.
It is possible that the 4th test was for the Atomic Bomb "Primary" for a future two stage Hydrogen Bomb. see my http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2016/01/north-koreas-4th-nuclear-test-another.html
The estimated yield of the 4th test was believed to be around 9 kilotons (too small to indicate a two stage Hydrogen Bomb). 9 kilotons is in line with what is publically considered normal Atomic Bomb 2nd (2009) and 3rd (2013) tests. The 1st test (2006) was, of course, a weak misfire "fizzled" test.
Regards
Pete