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If 2015 is the hottest year since whenever, what will that mean? : Comments
By Don Aitkin, published 30/9/2015There are two stories floating around about the state of the earth’s atmosphere. Both are believed true by government-funded scientists and the environmentally minded. The situation is curious because the stories don’t mesh.
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Posted by nicknamenick, Monday, 5 October 2015 9:07:01 AM
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Senator Whitehouse (US) has been suggesting that ExxonMobil should be prosecuted on the basis that scientists they employed in the 1970s were clearly telling management that man created climate change was real.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming Quote from reference: "A year later, Black, a top technical expert in Exxon's Research & Engineering division, took an updated version of his presentation to a broader audience. He warned Exxon scientists and managers that independent researchers estimated a doubling of the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere would increase average global temperatures by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit), and as much as 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) at the poles. Rainfall might get heavier in some regions, and other places might turn to desert." ExxonMobil management took the view that they wouldn't take the advice of their professional staff and instead set out to white ant the science. Scientists say that with an increase in atmospheric warmth that more water vapour is created; Cannes has just been inundated as have the Carolinas. Not long ago Estonia was as well;it is only over the last decade or so that tv news has brought pictures of houses and cars bobbing away in floods, it has become a reasonably common occurrence. The question is how much influence has climate change had in relation to these very recent events. We all know that climate has changed in the past; what is different now is that fossil fuels which have been created over millions of years are being burnt in a few moments in geological terms. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/flash-flooding-deadly-french-riviera/ http://mashable.com/2015/10/02/thousand-year-rains-carolinas-flood/#_fBPF996KSqT Something else of interest is that surf was up at Barrow Alaska weeks ago with 11-13 foot waves. Normally Barrow is protected by sea ice from wave action. The 11 year ARM study taking in thousands of bits of data showed a direct relationship between CO2 and infrared light. It has only been through satellite technology that scientists have become aware of the rapid regression of the Austfonna ice cap and Totem glacier. Moody's opinion makes interesting reading in relation to coal: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-01/half-of-the-world-s-coal-output-is-uneconomical-moody-s-says Continued Posted by ant, Monday, 5 October 2015 12:19:52 PM
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Continued:
The science of climate change goes back decades prior to the 1970s, in the 1970s non government scientists were telling their management about man created climate change. In the 1970s there was little knowledge of permafrost thawing (hardly dealt with by the IPCC), there was no knowledge of Greenland's surface ice melting; nor were any methane blow holes discovered; it is only fairly recently that scientists have picked up on the Pine Island and Totem glaciers regressing quite quickly. Before coming up with sea ice extending in Antarctica, learn about thermoclines. Posted by ant, Monday, 5 October 2015 12:21:04 PM
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Dear Don,
Glad to see you arise from a rabbit hole, in which you have been looking for some lost marbles. That our planet is warming is indicated by the slowly increasing average global sea level temperature. Strange as it may seem, Don, an average means some regions will have lower averages, and others higher averages. Doesn’t your fine statistician understand averages? Yes, normal natural variation has meant some parts of Australia have had a cooler winter, while others worldly regions have suffered abnormally bad heat waves. I think you are attacking the huge and verified evidence of AGW with a feather. Yes, additional warming because of additional CO2 in the atmosphere means more solar energy into the ocean, which means more evaporation, which means more atmospheric condensation, which releases much energy, energising atmospheric motions, enhancing strength of extreme event, such as El Nino. Apologies for the stringing together of so many clauses. Averages and clauses are enough to damage a person’s relationship with …. (Don, you can insert something here). Oh, it is so funny – do you expect anyone who visits this site to see any value in trotting out much used charts of proxy temperatures from hundreds of millions of years ago? Now, going back 800,000 years ago is great because we can measure CO2 concentration from air trapped in an ice core, and we can get proxy temperatures, and see the relationship between CO2 concentration and temperature. Very illuminating. Yes, CO2 concentration remained below 290 ppm for all of those years, oscillating between about 100ppm and 290ppm as ice ages came and went. And we are now at 400ppm. And you want to talk about stuff that happened millennia ago? While, Don, you have certainly lost marbles, IPCC charts do contain error bars, reliability and probability assessments. I guess they are not replicated in the popular press because of lack of marbles in their readership. And, there was no pause. Just more heat into the oceans and not as much into the air. Stand-up comedy for you! Posted by Tony153, Monday, 5 October 2015 9:19:09 PM
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Tony 153 very impressive! Come in with all the arrogance only you knuckle heads can muster. Blah blah blah.
So why all the fraud, all the extra people being paid and all the swagger? Believe me people are not impressed and we are awake to your nonsense. Posted by JBowyer, Monday, 5 October 2015 9:31:11 PM
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Northern ice JB?
Posted by nicknamenick, Monday, 5 October 2015 10:02:09 PM
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I just spat out all my tea and completely lost it.
Thousands of years of ice in the north ? Aboriginal fires caused AGW and sunburn in Tasmania?