There is much in what you say Graham!
A recent post Redcliffe poll saw a slide to labor of around 14%, indicating that the 17% swing against the Government, in the Redcliffe by election, was no one off fluke!
The LNP, on those numbers, could lose around 39 seats and Campbell could even lose his own seat?
A charismatic ALP leader, would swing more of the undecided towards Labor?
More dithering, playing the law and order card, or any more talk of privatization won't assist the LNP, nor will attacking doctors or their hard won conditions!
C'mon, we expect these blokes to work 60-70 hours straight on occasions, something no far better paid, and demonstrably less useful pollie, would ever countenance or accept for themselves!?
Nor will the Keystone cops attack on ordinary law abiding Bikies.
And the austerity measures are not going down too well, and not helped by the proposed 40% pay rise for patently self serving pollies, soon after Campbell got into office?
When in fact the first order of business ought to have been the construction of flood mitigation dams, by the dozen if necessary!
Given these same dams will also provide more water surety for drought stricken farmers, and in so doing provide a reasonable return, they could have been considered an income earning investment, funded off budget?
And something most Queenslanders, with flood affected friends or family, would have quietly agreed with? The extra regional jobs wouldn't have hurt either!
Nothing concentrates the minds of all pollies on both sides of the political divide, more than one term governments!
Rhrosty.

I think the key here is Australians tend to vote governments out rather then in.

Can't disagree with your observations, Graham.

Notwithstanding, there is no mention of what influence the performance of the federal political parties could play in the next Qld election. Even at this early stage, your view of this would be interesting

Labor left Queensland in major need of fixing up in all sorts of ways. The people booted them out of office with great gusto!

The Newman government has tried to do the fix-up job, but basically gets all manner of criticism:

Too much too quickly. Not attending to the right things. Sure we don’t want criminal bikies in our midst and yes our government should deal with it decisively, but no, they’re doing it all wrong and they’re violating our basic rights and liberties!

You’ve got to wonder: does any government really have a hope in hell of implementing the necessary reforms without incurring a huge backlash and getting kicked out after one or two terms?

Any sensible government would examine this very closely and presumably come to the conclusion that the best thing to do is to be seen to be moving in the right direction on the multitude of things that need reform, but to tread very carefully indeed, which would mean not achieving anything of any significance!

End result; the people of Queensland won’t let a proactive government remain significantly proactive. They’ll make sure that we have a second-rate government, and that the various gross inefficiencies, poor rule of law, constant population growth pressure in SEQ, and lack of future planning will continue, ad-nauseum.

No one who really compared the Newman government to the Bligh or Beattie bunch could possibly consider voting for Labor, even if they had Jesus Christ himself leading them. Even JC could not perform enough miracles to make the Queensland labor rabble into a responsible government.

That being said, it is obvious that very few voters think much about government except for a week or so when the TV advertisements hit full pitch. Probably just one good add swings more than a few electorates.

Of those who do give some thought to government it appears to me that most are voting purely short term & selfishly. It seems they are only interested in how a government will affect their hip pocket in the next couple of years. I guess there is going to be a great deal of future shock for many.

One has to be careful comparing the Bjelke Peterson government with modern election results. BP held on because of an outlandish gerrymandering of electoral boundaries.

BP's authoritarian instincts are however heavily reflected in Newman's attitude, comments and behaviour. In adopting the approach that he has he is undoubtedly influenced by the huge majority he has in the Qld parliament. Currently, Qld is indistinguishable from a one party state as the means for effective scrutiny of government actions is absent.

That in turn is a direct result of the voting system where getting half of the vote delivers 80+ percent of the seats. It cannot be seriously argued that such a result is in the interests of democracy, and it scarcely reflects the range of electoral support that exists.

Labor think they will be the beneficiaries next time around on the strength of the Redcliffe by-election swing, so they are not interested in real reform. One day perhaps we will accept that we do not have the world's best electoral system and look seriously at reform that will be to the benefit of all.

Sportsbet currently shows the LNP as firm favourites at 1.20 to 1, and Labor as an outsider at 3.5 to 1. When that shifts a bit I'll start to believe Labor has a chance.

I was under the impression that the Newman Government would make the workers' battle a little easier. I was led to believe registration fees would not go up but they did. I think Newman's already committed political suicide. He's simply not listening to the people who voted Labor out because they were so bad, now he's doing exactly the same. Huge disappointment really. For all our sake I hope he'll start taking some advise from his own people rather that the ALP cronies who are still heading departments.

Can Newman have any chance of personal reelection?

He stood in a previously safe labor seat, & required over 7% swing to get elected. Even if the LNP vote stands up well, I doubt he can expect to hold a "Labor" seat.

I think the LNP has been shocked, & stung into less action than planned by the real mess they found. I think it is much worse than they expected, & are floundering a bit as their preconceived plan is not up to the job required.

I think many people are forgetting how bad the other lot had got. How many remember the health payroll fiasco?

God help us if Labor & their hand maidens get back into power, state or federal, within the next decade. We need to encourage Tony & Newman to get the big knife out, & slash all the excesses, & get things tidied up now. They have about another 4 years to get it done, or the current mess will be the good old days, compared to where we will be.

I totally agree with Hasbeen's comments. My concern is with Newman's hitting those who can least afford it hardest. Why are so many former ALP appointed incompetents still in their positions when they so clearly do nothing but waste time & money & will never support any reform,

As normal practice in the ranks of the nationals they are to far to the right, and that means the little man pays for everybody. It brings them unstuck every time.
Big Business only gets one vote, and they are grossly outnumbered if they upset the worker.
Saying labor workers still in positions is clutching at straws.

You do remember James O'Neill, that Bjelke Petersen had merely picked up the gerrymander that Labor had put in place.

Never too bright, or ones to think ahead, Labor had set up the gerrymander when the farming districts had a high population of farm labour.

Heavy farm equipment meant that labor was no longer required in farming, & those electorates turned from safe Labor to safe Country Party.

I always enjoy watching a crook caught by their own stupidity. Watching labor suffer from it's own confidence trick all those years, was even better.

Old Joh may have been a bit of a reprobate, but he was so much better for Queensland than anything that has come after him, that there is just no comparison.

Saying labor workers still in positions is clutching at straws.
579,
Why do you have to resort to the equivalent of lying when remarking on statements. At no stage did I say Labor workers, I said ALP cronie bureaucrats.
The laying off of tradesmen in Q-Build & replace them with doubly expensive contractors whilst the admin hangers-on stay is nothing short of stupid if not immoral. As many of the people I know who helped vote Newman in I too will be voting against him if he does not change his ways. I am so very disappointed in his handling of the show, I truly expected a lot better. I'm still hanging onto the hope that things will get better before long but if they don't I'm afraid Newman will not be Premier for another term. Hopefully though people aren't so peed off that they vote the ALP in again, heaven forbid that scenario.

Graham

there are another three of factors needing assessment.

Firstly, in my opinion voters tend to not reverse their choices easily. Once they've committed to a member they tend to not question their choice easily. Just look at the hopeless Rudd/Gillard governments. Voters tend to be pretty forgiving, and they don't like to admit they might have made a mistake. So far Newman hasn't stuffed up too much. That might mean he retains more than a few disillusioned former labor voters. Of course it won't deter dyed in the wool labor voters or active labor supporters.

The second consideration is much more important and the parachuting of Dick onto Woodridge is symptomatic.

Isn't that what Labor always does? Haven't voters rejected that type of behaviour? It will merely show voters, more widely, that Labor hasn't changed. Dick is sure to win in Woodridge. Why wouldn't he be sure to win in Greenslopes if the LNP is as on the nose as polls are apparently showing. I'd love to see the internal polling in Greemslopes.

Finally, how many former members of Bligh's and Beattie's governments will again line up seeking voters endorsement, as for example in Morningside?

Again, legitimately, labor will be challenged to show how it has changed in both personnel, attitudes and competence since Bligh?

I like Newman's chances even if the LNP organisation stuff up as usual. I think they'll probably survive despite themselves with the help of Labor's union domination.

Graham,
I hope you don’t mind my pointing out a couple of redundant phrases, which spoil your clichés:
“Once upon a time the tide of public opinion used to rise and fall”, and,
“the Kevin Redux repeat”.
Apologies for being pedantic, we all lapse, but since you’re the editor and a devotee of Orwell..
But on to more important matters:
“On this comparison Queensland's VLAD laws are fairly benign, and are targeted at drug-running bikie gangs, so should play well”.
The “targeting” is rather indiscriminate, is it not? And why do you assume the majority’s decency and sobriety? We are a fundamentally dishonest and decadent society after all--though I appreciate one should not say as much.
Newman’s bikie laws are the height of hypocrisy so yes, conceded, they ought to play well on that score.
“According to our polling Newman has a net negative rating of -19%, not dissimilar to Campbell Newman”,.
What a coincidence!
“Even with Dick as leader the party would still need to have enough talent to look like a credible alternative government”;.
If any of them had talent (whatever that is) would they be politicians? But the line also betrays editorial bias with the leading innuendo that the party lacks “talent”—quality or quantity btw?
Your conclusion is nevertheless canny: “It's not impossible that this could be a one-term government”.
I thought that was the nature of elections, but no matter.
Are you pointing out the bleedin’ obvious to hearten us or shake our complacency?
Me thinks it’s the latter--but I’m taking heart.

@Hasbeen. I know that BP inherited a corrupt system. My point was the systemic problem. That has not gone away because of a reduction in gerrymandering. I would argue that the system cannot be truly democratic when one party gets half the votes but 80+% of the seats.

Some of the consequences of that are seen in the blunders the LNP are making, born of the hubris that comes with an unassailable parliamentary majority.

Good government depends on the government of the day being held accountable, not just at three yearly intervals.

As for Nutter, Individual et al, it is a very tired refrain that makes allowances for incompetence and other failings because the previous lot, in this case at both State and Federal level, the Labor Party were also allegedly incompetent etc.

As it was so well put in "The Lucky Country" we are lucky, but run by third rate politicians who share its luck. That is entirely a cross party phenomenon.

incompetence and other failings because the previous lot
James O'Neill,
In Australia's case it's not a matter of THE previous government, it's a matter of un-principled & utterly self-centred voters keeping the bandwagon going that was started by Goaf. Successive generations of such voters have brought Australia to where it is now. Broke, overrun with incompetent & overpaid bureaucrats, saturated with unemployables both home-grown & imported, selling-out merchants devoid of any National sense, educated downwards etc etc. I do not give one hoot what anyone says, I am totally certain that this is due to Goaf & his clueless followers. One just has to look what that moron Rudd did, he almost out-did his hero. So, you can confidently put Australia's failings onto the shoulders of the ALP not Labor or Liberal. Hopefully necessity will strip this great country of many of the useless parasites that came on Goaf's bandwagon on which they procreated like rabbits.