Greetings again,

Just a few follow-ups:

@Chris Lewis, re: “I still notice his holiness has still not answered whether he supports the will of the people as the ultimate arbitrator of a govt's performance.”

Hmmm. Well, I tried this [above]: “So would you have opposed women voting in the 1890s, Chris? Aborigines voting in the 1950s? Opening trade with China in the 1970s? Cutting tariffs in the 1980s? All those were overwhelmingly opposed by public opinion.”

The majority is not often wrong. But sometimes spectacularly so. In retrospect those are usually times when information is controlled or when an onslaught of propaganda in one direction causes a sort of herd mentality to develop. Like, say, in North Korea or Australia.

But in argumentation theory, no, argumentum ad populum is a logical fallacy, Chris.

@cohenite, re “Debt is therefore .237/1.371 x 100 = 17.3%. What's a lousy 7% with the labore party and it's pixie supporters”

The 17.3% relates to total or gross debt. The 10% Lexi referred to relates to government NET debt, after deducting the loans the government has out.

The difference is important, Anthony, so you may wish to ask your accountant to explain it. But don’t feel bad about getting this wrong. The Shadow Treasurer confuses this also.

Re: “the labore debt is the other kind; there is nothing to show for it other than a dubious NBN which arguably is already superseded technology.”

Best economy in the world by a margin, Anthony. As an exercise, which economy would you say is second?

@ShadowMinister, re: “revenue from the carbon tax based on EU carbon credits priced at $15/t when no one else is forecasting a price much higher than $6/t, and a jump in mining tax revenue ...”

Yes. These both need attention. We can expect whoever wins in September to fix them both.

@Lexi, thank you.

Finally, Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey presented an alternative vision yesterday at the Press Club. Unfortunately it repeated several of the falsehoods of the Opposition Leader and included a few new ones.

Analysis here:

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/sloppy-joe-hockeys-fifteen-biggest-press-club-furphies/

Happy to chat further there.

Cheers,

AA,

Good that you acknowledge that the 2012-13 and 2013-14 budgets were based on fudged figures.

Also from the figures that Parkinson provided, it shows that profitability of Australian companies is collapsing, compared to the improved profitability of companies in the US and Canada, this shows what poor economic managers Labor are.

Dear Shadow Minister,

What a "meaty" response from you regarding
the "fudging" of figures. I've got a "meaty"
reaction for you. Baloney!

Here's a link on who's playing politics with Treasury:

http://newmatilda.com/2013/05/23/just-who-playing-politics-treasury

Lexi,

New Matilda again? I thought you had grown up and weaned yourself from that vacuous greenie blog. Ben Eltham's economic credentials are zero and wouldn't understand a simple balance sheet.

"Leading economist Henry Ergas has described the budget projections as "garbage" and opposition climate action spokesman Greg Hunt has warned the government is exposed to a $6 billion black hole.

The attack is based on an explanation in the budget papers from Treasury that "carbon prices in the budget projection years are not forecasts of carbon prices".

Instead they represent a straight line drawn between market prices in 2014-15 (about $5.60) to the $38 projection contained in Treasury modelling for the government's initial carbon scheme.

"Projections for carbon prices for emissions liabilities for 2015-16 and 2016-17 incorporate the straightforward approach of a linear transition from market prices in 2014-15 to the modelled price of $38 in 2019-20," Treasury said in the budget.

But Treasury explained the $38 figure is not a forecast of the market price in 2019-20 but "the price levels required to meet long-term global environmental goals as well as the international commitment pledges for 2020"."

In other words the revenues from the carbon tax are made up, as are the mining tax revenues and tax revenue growth. This is contained in the Budget 2014/14 fine print.

It looks as though Whine Swan and Juliar are still pathological liars.

Shadow Minister,

Don't you realise that there are enough people to
dislike in the world already without your putting in so
much effort to give us another?

The GFC stimulouse was a fiasco, speaking first hand, much of it went into pokies (Pubs just LOVED it), flat screens and veins. Not a bridge, rail line, freeway, satellite, port, power station or anything that will cover the loan costs to be paid by generations to come.

The increasingly hysterical incumbents have publically fudged the figures and without doubt reality is much worse given their financial experience consists of "Slush Funds".