"Why aren't the mainstream media analysing the errors in Tony Abbott's budget positioning?"

Alan, the answer is simple. Most of the economic commentators in the mainstream media, having an economic background, know what they are talking about, unlike a certain economically illiterate labor spin doctor residing outside the country.

Whine Swan's budgets have without exception cherry picked the figures from treasury and delivered budgets that have little in common with reality.

It is no wonder that Swan is considered the most incompetent Australian treasurer for decades, and why Joe Hockey is recognized by voters as far more credible economically.

Hi Alan,

<< The reaction of Australia's media to Opposition leader Tony Abbott' Budget reply speech last Thursday was a surprise to some>>.

Ouch! Yes I imagine that does smart a bit, how dare they miss out all the “stated or implied falsehoods”? Particularly since our government has never stooped that low?

I guess the thinking down here in OZ is that the media could have spent some similar effort on being a little more inquisitive about some of the government bulltish they have peddled for the past five years, particularly the 2012 budget nonsense. All too late now of course as they have just stepped on the end of the rake and the handle has smacked them in the head with a little reality, a bit like you really.

It could also be said that our media might have been a little more inquisitive about the bulltish about climate change but again, they left it too late and are wearing great globs of egg on face. But you know this because all you have to do is look around you in Europe to see the social-democratic economic vandalism coming home to roost.

It is a great joy to many in OZ to read that our MSM is complementary to the oppositions budget, well at least the 70% that do not intend voting for the ALP. It does however tell you just how bad things are for our treasurer when the opposition budget gets a Guernsey. But I guess hypocrisy and embarrassment don’t feature too strongly in your whining missive?

Hope you are enjoying the collapse of all things green over there, the high cost of energy, the 17% increase in coal burning, industries shifting to the USA, funding the other failed states from your taxes and the endless recession.

We see and we no like, we no follow. Oui?

I know i could not help myself, i was thinking the great man might have something different to say.

To be honest, i think these propoganda pieces dumb down OLO.

All i can say is i am looking forward to tackling the record of the Gillard govt with some qualitative analsyis for an academic paper that may help explain why it is going to get the boot (I hope). To ignore this important realtionship is a big no-no as far as i am concerned.

For AA to produce his ongoing rubbish and then accuse the mainstream media of bias is quite strange, and extremely humourous.

I note AA still has nothing to say about the judgement of the Aust people. This neglect is typical of those Labor barrackers who cant reconcile the fact that the majority at times thinks Labor is on the nose

Because everyone is too busy moving from stunned to laughter over the Gooses budget. The only question is "would you trust them to be the treasurer of your School BBQ?".

>"Why aren't the mainstream media analysing the errors in Tony Abbott's budget positioning?"

I'd suggest more useful questions to ask and answer in your article would be:

1. "Why aren't the mainstream media analysing the errors (especially the many highly optimistic assumptions)in Wayne Swan's budget?

2. "Why din't the mainstream media analyse and expose the errors in Wayne Swan's budgets every year for the past five budgets - budgets that were grossly wrong, grossly optimistic and grossly incompetent?

3. "Why didn't the mainstream media analyse Kevin Rudd's 'porky-pie' during the 2007 election campaign when he claimed to be a fiscal conservative, but was, in fact, the exact opposite.

4. Why wont Labor release the true financial position so the Coalition can build a budget.

Dear Alan
It's typical, and gives further credibility to your comments, that not one of the responses so far has addressed the evidence you provide - just more frothing at the mouth and useless slogans.

Tony Abbott and his media mates have used the typical vacuous strategy that if you say something often enough and loud enough, people will believe it.

Thanks for bringing some sanity to all of this.

But Godo, are you saying that Australians have been hoodwinked by a poor media?

Are you serious? Did not Swan predict a surplus a year ago. It was always obvious he was going to be wrong if one actually took note of trends happening all around us. Last year's budget even jugged the data and was more about wishfult thinking, treating Austs as fools.

I mean where was his holiness a year ago, to point out why the media was not attacking Swan and Treasury for their forecasts?

You Laborites need to lift your own game rather than blaming someone else when Labor is indeed led by simpletons.

You guys, referring to AA, cant even see your own contradictions and commentary shortcomings, yet you have the audacity to bag the whole of the Aust media, many of them passionate and experienced reporters.

Get real.

Then there was this one from Tony:

" There will be an affordable and responsible paid parental leave scheme because women should get their full wage while on maternity leave just as men should get theirs while on annual leave"

Maybe we are not supposed to analyse the words but I just don't understand what he is getting at:

Men and women in full time employment receive annual leave pay BUT many women (and men) who work casually or part time don't have such an entitlement. Is that his point, I don't think so ?
What is the correlation between annual leave pay and paid maternity leave: one is paid by the employer and Tony's is paid from a tax, by the government. Maybe having a baby is like being on holiday ?

Can anybody explain why such an obviously crafted sentence is so ambiguous ?

I haven't been to OLO for about 6 months but I see nothing has changed...same old right wingers always playing the man (author); so very disappointing that there are no sites where reasoned discussions can be held.

How about you children grow up and start an adult debate.

If you don't agree with the opinion piece then address each of the points and explain why they are wrong. Then it would be worth reading this site and maybe a sensible debate might ensue.

Fat chance from past visits I would say!

It is hard to accept Abbott as leader of anything… he just doesn’t seem to have it. During the past 3 years he and his colleagues were in a constant tantrum and almost destroyed the nicely built Parliament physically and morally. You can feel they are prepared to do “anything” just to be in government, hardly the conduct of responsible leaders or statesmen. Yet after a sudden act or one off measured speech we are supposed to believe that he is a respectable parliamentarian and can lead the nation!? It is clear that Mr Abbott and his colleagues take the Australian voters very lightly, if not with contempt.

after five deficits after and an absolute promise of a surplus why would anyone need to even look at Abbotts budget reply. Everyone has seen the economic vandalism and lies and Alan wants to defend their record. Alan uses lies lies and statistics to try and justify Labours waste. Thankfully the voters are not so gullible as they have seen what socialist Governments have done to Europe with their huge Government spending with nothing to show for it.

The budget is the product of treasury, not Wayne Swan Or Joe Hockey.
If treasury officials who prepared 11 budgets for the coalition, can't be trusted by the coalition, then that says something about their judgement as about anything else, or indeed, their "Infant terrible", political posturing.
The facts have become entirely irrelevant!
Labour has got to go!
With so much corruption and rubbish in the ranks, Labour needs to spend time in the wilderness, to find and put back in traditional core values, and rid itself of the stench of criminal corruption and filth?
Labour under Gillard has just lurched from one crisis to another. Gillard should have called for a spill, even if that permanently damaged an emotionally fragile Rudd beyond repair.
Besides, there's no place in traditional Labour ranks, for fiscal conservatives or economic drys.
A spill may have limited those damaging leaks, that more than anything else, have put labour in the position it's in today.
Without those leaks, Julia Gillard wouldn't have had to make that damaging deal with the greens; and all the damage control ever since!
As for Tony Abbott, well we can't yet fault his promises against his costings, we simply don't have them yet!
Moreover he's smart enough to remain a small target until just days before the election.
Gillard's only real response or remaining strategy, is to fully roll-out Her education and health funding policies, and then watch as completely disenchanted electors, fume furiously as they are progressively withdrawn?
We have somewhere around 150 different taxes, with only around 11 of them, collecting most of the tax.
One sees real tax reform as fixing the structural deficit and improving the economy and tax receipts, always providing, the current US recovery, we seem to be seeing, is not hijacked by the Tea Party and forced back into a double dip recession.
One can only hope the proposed free trade deal between the US and Europe is sealed, and the economy damaging food subsidies, are finally removed.
Rhrosty.

Rhrosty

"As for Tony Abbott, well we can't yet fault his promises against his costings, we simply don't have them yet"

I think you totally missed the point of the article. Forget the costings, Abbott's premises for change of government are all lies or inaccurate. If you don't agree with that statement then explain why!

That is the key element of the piece; whether he can pay for his promises is an entirely different issue...we all know there will be a "great big black hole" when they win the election. What incoming government has ever said "we inherited a very good economy"?.

BTW it is Labor not Labour!

Alan,

try telling that to the Australian public.

They will switch off. Did you see the polls again today. Seems nobody listened to the budget or the budget in reply. No body is interested. We have all made up our minds. Your hours of propagandising are totally wasted.

Switch off.

For anyone interested in getting a realistic
analysis of the Budget reply here's a link that
pretty much sums up the reality of the direction
in which this country will be headed should the
Liberals win the next election:

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/editorial/abbott-focuses-on-profit-not-people-20130517-2js2r.html

Peter. Only time will tell if Tony tells pork pies or makes non core promises.
One understands he is heaping heaps on treasury, and impugning their honesty and good character, for quite rank political purpose? By suggesting Labour's (Treasury) figures are not to be trusted?
And, I prefer the Australian way of spelling Labour and not the american (spell check) version.
Moreover, that's how it's spelt in my old Australian dictionary.
Rhrosty.

Emm Gee - It is clear that Mr Abbott and his colleagues take the Australian voters very lightly, if not with contempt.

True, but then so do the red-headed witch and the dying duck. Nothing of value will occur by switching horses. We have total deadbeats running both major parties, both with malice aforethought and neither of whom has any acquaintance with the truth, honor, or accountability. Until or unless we rid politics of legal leeches, union heavies and other bottom-feeding parasites, together with banning lobbyists and other snouts, we are destined to keep wandering aimlessly in circles muttering about how broken is the system.

' One understands he is heaping heaps on treasury, and impugning their honesty and good character, for quite rank political purpose? '

Well its either Treasury or Swan/Wong who have acted like the gw religion in treating fantasy as fact. Swan was definite about his promise right up to a couple of months before the budget. It is tax payers money they are squandaring, not monopoly money.

This debate is reminiscent of fight night! With the fight well and truly over and the winner declared!
Yet, a couple of entirely unreasonable, irrational, and seriously outraged drunken sluggers, unable to accept the KO, and their betting losses, have made it to the middle and are now slugging it out.
And just like drunks, swinging wildly and missing everything, except the clinches, which is the only thing allowing then to stay perpendicular.
Rhrosty.

I wonder how much Labor pay this bloke to produce this crap.

What ever it is they should double it to have him stop. His continual fantasies just highlight how bad this government has been, & still is for a few more weeks.

Dear Hasbeen,

You sound confused.

It's the Libs who have big media, big business and
big money lined up against Labor. With all those
against them it's difficult for Labor to get any
message out. And you have to be careful to believe
what Mr Abbott is selling. Motherhood statements
and gaps in logic are not longer working as well
as he thinks:

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/editorial/abbott-focuses-on-profit-not-people-20130517-2js2r.html

In politics a degree of rhetorical flourish, and a
pinch of hyperbole is to be expected. But when your
whole basis of your campaign doesn't add up, and is
illogical and full of gaps then the bar is not being
set very high. Still the gullible fall for it.

Dear Rhrosty, Emma Gee, Peter King, wantok and Godo,

As of today there are 70% of Australians who do not intend voting for you.

Sorry about that, better luck next time but at least it's democratic.

Lexi,

Your comments are wasted on this lot...too sensible. Walk away as I do in despair after a few attempts at debate.

Posters such as runner, hasbeen et al can not be engaged in intelligent dialogue. They always revert to name calling abuse etc.

Not one of them can address and refute any of Alan's points in the article. If they could we might just listen but an argument has to be bidirectional and based on some identifiable logic to have any value.

For example note this brilliantly argued and erudite comment from hasbeen: "...What ever it is they should double it to have him stop. His continual fantasies just highlight how bad this government has been, & still is for a few more weeks."

What are these fantasies one might ask?

Total waste of time this forum...I think Graham Young ought to consider a new career.

Dear imajulianutter,

In the mediascape polls trump policies
every time.

Dear spindoc,

Really?

Are you trying to tell us that 70 percent of Australians
would rather vote for party that has a political leader
who's admitted on national television that he has trouble
with the "gospel truth?" A man who's done nothing to
establish his or his party's economic credentials
and seems content to coast along on what he perceives
were the "good old days," (they weren't) of the past?
A man whose policies simply don't add up. A man who
makes promises but doesn't disclose how he'll pay for
his promises (except of course making massive cuts).

Then if what you're saying is true, then Australians
deserve a little more respect from the man who wants to
lead the nation. The upcoming election will be held against
a back-drop of a fast-changing world. The central challenge
for political leaders is to ensure Australia's continued
economic resilience in this time of change.

After seeing Joe Hockey questioned on the "Insiders," I
don't hold much faith in the economic credentials of
the party he represents. He was all over the place.
One minute saying what he really thought, the next
contradicting himself by remembering he had to toe the
Party line. It did not inspire confidence to say the least.
Besides - things in politics can change over night.
Predicting the future is a risky business at the best of
times. Australians may just not be as gullible as you
think. They should certainly be able to tell the difference
between chicken salad and chicken pooh.

Dear Peter King,

I don't bother reading posts from certain people.
Once I see the name, I usually scroll past because
I've learned from experience that any chance of
having a sensible discussion will be lost with them.
They aren't capable of thoughtful, intelligent,
responses. These people decide that all concerns,
issues, policies and pre-occupations of this country
has to ve divided into a Left/Right dog-fight.
They insist on seeing all discussions through a
fixed ideological view-finder. I've been accused of all
sorts of things. However it is important to correct
inaccurate comments. And at least provide some sort of
balance to the usual baloney that being spruiked.

I hope that you'll stick around at least for a bit longer.
We need more diversity on this forum.

if Alan wants to be taken serious he would not be quoting the IMF. It stinkthe same way as the warmist quoting the IPCC. People have woken up to the total lack of credibility with these dudes (well any thinking people). They are nothing short of socialist propaganda outlets.

Not one of the claims Alan lists as “problematic propositions” is actually wrong. Alan may think that it is reasonable for debt to have increased and for unemployment to be on the rise, but Abbot has every right to say so. Compared with the Government’s blatant lies and misrepresentations about getting back into surplus and revenue from the MRRT, it’s pretty tame stuff.

Hi Alan

There don't seem to be any journalists left in Oz. It's hard to imagine the Canberra Press Gallery of the '80s or '90s allowing a Leader of the Opposition to repeatedly walk away from "Press Conferences" after 3 questions. They would have chased after him, asking "Why are you running away? Can't you answer our questions?". Abbott wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes.

I suspect the tedious abusers who frequent this forum are bored little Liberal EOs, with nothing better to do. The spite and inability to engage with facts are dead giveaways.

Thanks, Alsn, for your intelligent and wry articles on a range of topics. They are a pleasant relief from the dreck that passes for "News" in Oz nowadays.

Lexi my sweet, have you ever heard of the ABC.

It is the best lefty propaganda Machine on earth, since the old Communist Russia collapsed. Labour has just bought it's continued support with another 40 million of our money, & that is not a fantasy.

Hasbeen,

I"t(the ABC) is the best lefty propaganda Machine on earth, since the old Communist Russia collapsed. Labour has just bought it's continued support with another 40 million of our money, & that is not a fantasy."

It is so "leftie" that Gerard Henderson regularly appears on Insiders, as does Piers Ackerman. That wretchedly abusive wannabe Sophie Mirabella, Christopher Pyne, Janette Albrechtson and other LNP luminaries and cheer squad are alwys popping up on QANDA. Even TA himself appeared for a very "soft" interview with Leigh Sales on 7.30 Report last week.

So the ABC is a leftie propaganda machine, exactly why?

I suspect it is as Lexi said before you guys don't want to hear facts or hate any questions that might elicit a legitimate response from your idols.

No Lexi, that’s categorically not what I said. What I did say was that as voting intentions are recorded this week, 70% will not be voting for the ALP. Your acknowledgement of this would be appreciated.

I made no reference to Abbott or the LNP, but if the cap fits I’m sure it will suit you. Not like you at all, what’s with you at the moment, you are thrashing!

Peter King,

<< Your comments are wasted on this lot...too sensible >>

Good for you. The proletariat needs to be put in its place by those who stand behind the high moral ramparts and dictate their moral and intellectual superiority, driven by a desire to create abstract “thought bubbles” for the benefit of all mankind. Especially your mention of runner and hasbeen, they will be so impressed.

Perhaps you might consider visiting our planet again at some point in the future, might we suggest you time your next visit for about September 15th?

We agree that it has been some time since you last visited us and I’m sure Graham Young will devour your comments in abject appreciation. Unfortunately for you, during the time of your absence, the world has moved on a century or so and some of us have wised up to those who pretend to be our intellectual superiors.

Karl Marx and Max Webber are actually dead; sorry about that but someone had to break the bad news to you.

Lexi is of course correct when she admits to scrolling past those who write under certain Monica’s, after all as you would appreciate, who wants to listen to anyone who might have a contrary opinion to which they are not entitled?

Some of us have absolutely no idea where you have been during your absence but we do wish you bon voyage, call again soon as we wait with baited breath for your next self opinionated, quasi-intellectual pontifications that we are sure will add value, if not to us, perhaps to some of the single cell organisms to which you seem to be intellectually affiliated

Peter King, "Total waste of time this forum...I think Graham Young ought to consider a new career"

Yet you post on it!

Why don't you have the decency and manners to take any personal beefs you have up with Graham Young privately? That is what the rules say too. It is the coward's way to attack the site administrator in a thread knowling full well that it is unlikely he would see your gutless attack.

Honestly, try that stunt on other forums and you would be banned forthwith and rightly so.

There is only one factor that has any relevance in regard to judging the opinion of this govt as each side reports and promotes their version of the truth: that is public opinion.

In contrast to the tossers that imply we have a poor media or that Aust is supposedly in some golden age and the masses should know better, the Australian people are good enough to separate the truth from the rot and make up their minds come judgment day.

Simple reality is that Labor is getting the boot. Why? Because Labor and the galahs promoting its cause were not good enough. Labor had six years, but now it has only itself to blame for the likely defeat

Peter King, which eye do you open in the morning, It certainly can't be both?

Has it ever occurred to you that any media that constantly agrees with your opinion, must be left of Khrushchev?

Good morning,

Intriguing discussion. Thank you.

@Spindoc, re “We see and we no like, we no follow. Oui?”

Absolument, Spindoc!

In 2007 Australia’s economy was well behind Switzerland, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Iceland and Luxembourg. Similarly placed to Sweden and Austria. That’s on GDP growth, income, employment and current account.

Now, after the worst global upheavals since the 1930s, Australia is ahead of them all. By a street. And the gap is growing.

Of all those European countries, only Norway, Sweden and Switzerland have triple A credit ratings with stable outlook with all major agencies – along with Australia.

Europe is looking in amazement at Australia’s handling of the GFC. They wish they had followed you. Non?

@Peter King, re: “disappointing that there are no sites where reasoned discussions can be held.”

Another version of this piece, slightly edited, appears here:

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/tony-abbotts-budget-reply-porkie-pies/

You may prefer that discussion, Peter.

@Runner, re: “they have seen what socialist Governments have done to Europe with their huge Government spending with nothing to show for it”

Not all socialist governments, Runner. Some are doing better than others. Poland’s stimulus response when the GFC hit was very similar to Australia’s in timing and direction. Just not as vast. Poland was the only other OECD nation to avoid two negative quarters.

Management now is also not uniform. Some travelling better than others.

Re: “if Alan wants to be taken serious he would not be quoting the IMF.”

Most data comes from tradingeconomics.com, Runner. Do you recommend other sources? Happy to read further.

@Hasbeen, re: the ABC “is the best lefty propaganda Machine on earth, since the old Communist Russia collapsed.”

Hmmm. Do you still listen/watch, Hasbeen? Those who do have seen a dramatic shift recently.

@Chris Lewis, re “There is only one factor that has any relevance in regard to judging the opinion of this govt… that is public opinion.”

So would you have opposed women voting in the 1890s, Chris? Aborigines voting in the 1950s? Opening trade with China in the 1970s? Cutting tariffs in the 1980s? All those were overwhelmingly opposed by public opinion.

Cheers,

judging by some comments here we should raise the voting age to 45 & have people sit a test.

lexi,
you are delusional. Of course polls don't trump policy. The trouble for labor is they have no credibility since they trashed the policy they presented to the electorate at the last elexction and their behaviour since has been to try to influence the monthly polls with what turne out to be atrocious or unfundable policy.

lol. Here is the current Australian definition of delusional:

Taking labor seriously or thinking people will take one seriously when they attempt to defend labor. It can be applied to anyone who attacks their opponants as liars, frausters or incompetents.

lol

Julia's nutter says;

"definition of delusional ... can be applied to anyone who attacks their opponants (sic) as liars, frausters (sic) or incompetents."

Precisely what Tony Abbott and Co. have been calling Julia Gillard and her government - liars, fraudsters and incompetents.

Ergo - Tony Abbott and Co. are delusional.

"Is there perhaps a double standard with regard to the political parties? Or women in politics?"

Well, you go on believing that if it makes you feel better. No doubt in forty years the same kind of people who now claim that Gough Whitlam was an economic genius will be telling us that Julia Gillard was driven from power by a sexist cabal of wicked men who couldn't stand her righteous denunciations.

Dream on...

The implacable labore supporter dear Alan comes out with some more malarkey.

His base point is that Swan's "measures' during the GFC served Australia well; they included giving everyone $900 to spend as they wanted, cash for clunkers and set-top boxes; in fact no expenditure by Swan had any lasting effect.

A comparison with China is revealing. China's GFC response was to increase Fixed Asset Investment [FAI]; Australia has done no such thing; the pink batts fiasco and the BER must be counted as monumental wastes of money while the NBN is already a white elephant which still has no cost/benefit analysis.

And this is the point. Labore is incapable of a measured, disciplined approach to anything; Swan's out and out LYING about the surplus and the size of the deficit illustrate this; Gillard is simply a conniver who promises things such as the NDIS with no realistic expectation of paying for it even with increasing the medibank levy, another broken promise.

Simply put Australia is doing well In Spite of the gross incompetence of this wretched government.

This government's "fiscal profligacy" is well illustrated by the size of the national debt which now stands at $258 billion:

http://www.aofm.gov.au/

It is irrelevant that this is 'only' a 1/3 of GDP or less than other nation's. Australia stands alone in terms of natural assets and any comparison with other nations is meaningless for that reason.

None of this will change dear Alan's crusade because he is a died in the wool labore supporter, even justifying the carbon tax which is the single biggest dud tax policy ever; and how clever dear Alan for Australia to tie our carbon tax with Europe's; what is the price of carbon there? And how clever was Combet to say the plummet of the carbon price was a good thing for Australia because it would cost Australian business less! What a lie.

And that's who dear Alan is defending: liars and cheats and incompetents.

But what a great nation Australia is; where anyone can get a platform to sprout rubbish.

There you go, on queue - cohenite is delusional as well.

lol

'Most data comes from tradingeconomics.com, Runner. Do you recommend other sources? Happy to read further. '

It would be a pretty good start for you to state how much money Australia had in the bank 5 years ago and how much debt we now have. Then it would be good for you to tell us what we have to show for the billions of wastage instead of quoting meaningless selective stats that try and hid Labours waste and incompetence.

I'm delusional says q&a; hopefully that must mean he's not real.

q&a will be gratified to see the latest survey about media bias:

https://theconversation.com/whose-views-skew-the-news-media-chiefs-ready-to-vote-out-labor-while-reporters-lean-left-13995?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+20+May+2013&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+20+May+2013+CID_ec3fba5ac86d12d9cbbd958b305026c6&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Whose%20views%20skew%20the%20news%20Media%20chiefs%20ready%20to%20vote%20out%20Labor%20while%20reporters%20lean%20left

Nearly 1/2 of the abc vote green; now, that's delusional. Our tax dollar at work.

Thanks, Alan. An excellent analysis - much appreciated, as are the comments from Lexi and Peter. As for the ABC, it is no longer left-wing, if it ever was. It's always been homophobic, pro religion, pro USA and rather dull.

"Thanks, Alan. An excellent analysis - much appreciated, as are the comments from Lexi and Peter. As for the ABC, it is no longer left-wing, if it ever was. It's always been homophobic, pro religion, pro USA and rather dull."

That's an excellent p..s take; Alan will believe you.

No cohenite, one of your fellow travellers thinks you are delusional.

"definition of delusional ... can be applied to anyone who attacks their opponants (sic) as liars, frausters (sic) or incompetents."

You said Alan is defending liars and cheats and incompetents.

Ergo, you are delusional.

"Moody's says longer period of deficits only marginally affects Australia's creditworthiness."

http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-says-longer-period-of-deficits-only-marginally-affects-Australias--PR_273168

Hello again,

@Jon J, re: “No doubt in forty years the same kind of people who now claim that Gough Whitlam was an economic genius will be telling us that Julia Gillard was driven from power by a sexist cabal of wicked men”

No-one claims Whitlam was a genius. But he did open trade with China. The Coalition pilloried him savagely, calling it treacherous, traitorous, blasphemous and thwarting global anti-Communism.

Now, the Coalition won’t accept Labor saved Australia with its 2009-10 stimulus. “It was trade with China!”

History is likely to repeat.

@cohenite. re: “in fact no expenditure by Swan had any lasting effect.”

Nonsense, Anthony. World’s best economy by a mile.

If not, name one better-placed.

Then explain how, had Australia not handed back that $900 and invested those billions in all that infrastructure you would have avoided even greater deficits and debt with the lower growth and higher dole paments that every other comparable nation experienced.

@runner, re: “It would be a pretty good start for you to state how much money Australia had in the bank 5 years ago and how much debt we now have. Then it would be good for you to tell us what we have to show ...”

Australia had borrowings of 9.7% of GDP when Labor took office in 2007. Then the global financial crisis hit. Australia implemented the world’s strongest stimulus spending. Your borrowings are now 20.7%. So Australia increased borrowings by 11% of GDP.

Two other nations were ranked about where Australia was when the GFC hit – New Zealand and the UK.

NZ had borrowings in 2007 of 19.9%. Now 35.9%. So 16% of GDP were borrowed to survive.

The UK had borrowings in 2007 of 43.4%. Now 90.7%. So 47% of GDP extra were borrowed.

But here’s the thing: Unemployment rocketed in the UK from 5.35% to more than 8%, and in NZ from 3.5% to more than 7%. Growth tumbled in both places and taxes went up. Both copped five quarters of negative growth.

Australia had just the one.

You really can cheer up, Runner.

Cheers,

This thread is like reading the letters column on the "Australian"website.
The right wingers come on posting anti Labor and we Love Tony "Jesus Christ surfer star!" postings.
Yet they are talking to themselves, because they have never needed or wanted in there lives; because they where lucky as, it all came so easily; by heritance or good luck.
Please do not use the excuse "By hard work", As near everyday in Australia, a person goes to work who also works hard,and is killed in their work place, and never returns home to their family and love ones.

Runner, did you know that "Jesus" was a socialist, that he put people before monetary gain?
Though you being a member of a religious cult of sorts, would be indifferent to from where the money came from.
There again when it comes to money who cares were it comes from, as long as your cult gets a slice of it!!

The only thing I can surmise from all this is that we are bound to lurch from one uncertainty to another for some time to come. Whether it is uncertainty regarding the efficacy of Labor's bold rush to implement grand, albeit perhaps overdue, social improvement programs (NDIS, Gonski, NBN, Renewable Energy..) but without sufficient concern for the adequacy of the relevant costings and/or projected revenue base; or in the ability of an Abbott Coalition to reign in expenditure to more reasonable and sustainable levels without sacrificing the entirety of any worthwhile gains made by Labor towards the implementation of those programs.

On the one hand I am fearful of a continued Labor (hung-parliament) government, post September, rushing forward with increasingly unsustainable expenditures in quest of fulfilling overly grandiose aspirations to 'make its mark'; and on the other hand a Coalition (hung-parliament) government slashing funds unnecessarily from worthwhile programs to fund what I consider to be unjustifiably generous increases in maternity leave or to fund unnecessary and unjustifiable reductions in personal income tax or company tax.

Either way, I see nothing in either Party's platform offering real growth in 'exportable' production or services, and the future long-term jobs-growth that this could produce. Instead we seem to be offered only an internal 'inward-looking' focus - on roads, infrastructure, enhanced health and education services, and improved internet services - and all still riding on the back of mining exports. This 'golden goose' cannot last, and is already in decline; but instead of any long term plan for future growth and sustainability we appear set on a path for a 'Dutch Disease' crunch, with only the potential of future gas exports fore-staying this apparent inevitability.

Where to from here?

Greetings,

@Saltpetre, re: “The only thing I can surmise is that we are bound to lurch from one uncertainty to another for some time”

Not at all, Peter. Australia’s economy is sound, improving and completely transparent. You have accurate data on the past and remarkably reliable forward estimates for the next four years, then reasonably sound 10-year projections.

Some countries are lurching from one uncertainty to another. Australia is not among them.

Re: “without sufficient [government] concern for the adequacy of the relevant costings and/or projected revenue base or in the ability of an Abbott Coalition to reign in expenditure”

We have accurate past data, Peter. The Fraser years shifted wealth and income to the rich, largely through optional tax for non-wage earners. The economy slipped down the OECD rankings to the low 20s.

The Hawke-Keating period saw profound restructuring of tariffs, taxes, trade, industrial relations, privatisation, government spending, productivity and infrastructure funding. You zoomed up to 6th-ranked by 1996.

The Howard years then saw considerable waste, mismanagement and several quite costly blunders. Most of this was masked by rises in commodity prices and export volumes. The economy slipped back to 12th-ranked by 2007.

Now, as the world has seen with amazement, you are number one. By an impressive margin.

All this is easily demonstrated by the data. So it’s not difficult to assess your probable future.

Re: “Either way, I see nothing in either Party's platform offering real growth in 'exportable' production or services, and the future long-term jobs-growth that this could produce.”

Have you looked at the ABS jobs, production and productivity data, Peter? Australia is currently doing extremely well. Probably only Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Germany are as impressive. But only Australia and Norway have positive outlooks.

Re: “This 'golden goose' cannot last, and is already in decline”

Based on what, Peter? China’s gradual urbanisation is driving its demand. That’s likely to continue for another 50, perhaps 100 years. No?

You do not need to be so pessimistic! A good start might be to stop reading/listening to the nonsense Australia’s media serves up to you daily.

Cheers,

What a bias piece of rubbish.

I only read the first page, and that was enough.

The arts and film industry.

Put a levy on the Hugh Jackman, Russel Crow and Kieth Urbans of the world, as these mega multi millionaire are making a killing, and, chances are they were subsidized by the tax payer to start with, yet once they reach stardom, they move off shore to avaid taxes.

Many professional sports stars are the same.

By all means provide funding, but not hand outs, with no chance of a return on investment.

Now as far as households being better off.

May I suggest you get out of your office and spend a little time with a mum, dad and four kids, and see just how tough they are doing it.

Especially if they were one of those who Rudd sucked in with the increase to first home hand outs.

Income tax, well, that only the portion that is removed before you start spending.

My suggestion to the author is, that rather than draw your info from abroad, simply spend a little time in 'real people's world' as you may well change your view.

runner - It is tax payers money they are squandaring, not monopoly money.

How many sheeple have noticed the red-headed witch, the dying duck and the wong wun have managed to siphon off a half billion of taxpayers money to fund a vain re-election attempt ?? (see new thread on this) Furthermore, the deafening silence from the RAbbott re this is also telling.

Alan Austin,
If labor Governments are as good as you trying to tell us then why is it that we're always worse off after they get in. Your academic assessments & observations do no equate & translate into reality. Australia's ranking on the world list is meaningless if we're worse off when the list says we're near the top. We now have no money left yet we're supposed to be in such good shape. I really wonder what your definition of good shape is.

"You have accurate data on the past and remarkably reliable forward estimates for the next four years, then reasonably sound 10-year projections."

And q&a says I'm delusional; the same sources, treasury, couldn't even predict a decifit or its size and Swan and his cohorts lie about revenue and other economic markers.

"reliable forward estimates"

You're out to lunch Alan, that is just nuts; living in France are you still enroled to vote; I dare say so. The Lucky Country indeed.

Hello again,

Nighttime here, so will be away for a bit. But back later with further responses.

Meanwhile, here are two more porky pies from Mr Abbott’s speech which we couldn’t squeeze into the final version of the above article. These may be relevant to some of the discussion emerging:

13. “This year’s supposed revenue shortfall went from $7 billion, to $12 billion to $17 billion in just two weeks – so how can ministers possibly predict a decade ahead?”

Easily. The difference between $7 billion and $17 billion sounds big. Ten billion dollars. That is about 0.6 of one per cent of the nation’s income. To have errors in predictions of that order is not exceptional. It happens in all countries all the time.

14. “If this had been the only dodgie promise, they might have got away with it. But this government never gets it right.”

Nonsense. It is rare for forward estimates to turn out precisely as forecast. Peter Costello never got the quantum of his deficits and surpluses exactly right. Sometimes they overshoot, sometimes undershoot and, very occasionally, are spot on. It is a transparent process, with forward estimates publicly available and revisions posted as required.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/1345.0?opendocument?opendocument

“It got the mining tax numbers wrong. It got the carbon tax numbers wrong.”

Correct. That’s two. How many more? A few, perhaps. But not more than previous administrations. If there is evidence of this it has not been presented. [end of extract]

Bon soir,

Cohenite,

Your OLO acolyte going by the tag 'imajulianutter' seems to have struck your sensitivity.

He says:

"definition of delusional ... can be applied to anyone who attacks their opponants (sic) as liars, frausters (sic) or incompetents."

You said the author is "defending liars and cheats and incompetents."

Your own follower thinks you are delusional - whether I agree or not is neither here nor there.

People do have delusions there's no denying that.
Some have delusions of grandeur.
Some have delusions of adequacy.
Delusions of adequacy maks some people feel
a lot better about themselves.
However those who can analyze their delusions
are called philosophers. ;-)

Dear Hasbeen,

I'm surprised that you're so anti the ABC.
I enjoy watching "Q and A," "Media Watch,"
"The Insiders," "News 24," and so on.
I find that it's one place that presents
diverse opinions on issues - corrects
misinformation (Media Watch), and does not
have a political bias.
I can only assume that you haven't watched any
of the programs recently.

Dear spindoc,

What's with the personal insults?
You appear to be arguing on an emotional level -
not a mature intelligent one. Of course
all opinions should be heard. Within the limits
of good taste - reasonably. Our interests are far
more complex than those who insist on seeing all
discussions through a fixed ideological view-finder.
Such one-eyed bias is a triumph of negativity,
and this country has never needed a more positive, open
and compassionate approach to differences in opinion
than now.

Dear onthebeach,

I'm surprised that you took Peter King's remark about
Graham Young so seriously. Imagine if you would have thought
that he was being facetious?

Dear Imajulianutter,

As I stated earlier - those who can analyze their
delusions are called - philosophers. ;-)

Cheers.

When AA can dismiss Saltpetre in one sentence, someone with twice the intellect of AA, then you know AA is indeed bringing down the standard of debate on OLO, regardless of how many people are reading his bs.

What is comforting for me, however, will be the Sept. 2013 election when are very poor govt gets the flick.

I still notice his holiness has still not answered whether he supports the will of the people as the ultimate arbitrator of a govt's performance. Or maybe AA and Labor should only be answerable to god.

Dear Chris Lewis,

You may be right about the Labor government being
responsible to God.

After all they were the ones who commissioned
The Royal Commission into Institutional
Responses to Child Sex Abuse.

It's worth asking whether such an inquiry
with such wide-ranging powers would have
been commissioned by Tony Abbott. Given his personal
history and close relationship with the Catholic Church.
There must be considerable doubt.

This Commission is long overdue but it was the Prime
Minister who finally took responsibility.

Lexi, i said answerable to god.

But Lexi, you would agree that he public is the ultimate judge of a govt?

For us who live here, and have a feel for the issues, most believe that Labor is not worthy of a another chance. Am I right?

And Lexi, you would agree that one person's bias is no match for the will of the people, and in australia case, the people are not stupid?

Lexi writes

I enjoy watching "Q and A," "Media Watch,"
"The Insiders," "News 24," and so on.
I find that it's one place that presents
diverse opinions on issues - corrects
misinformation (Media Watch), and does not
have a political bias. '

how tragic. It really explains alot.

I think when some Labor supporters actually recognise that people are the ultimate judge of a govt, and not blame our media, then Labor will actually be on the road to recovery.

These sort of pieces have very little use apart from allowing very poor students to expres their opinion.

I mean do you think any prominent Labor person will rush to AA and ask advice on what to do given his recent efforts claiming, gee guys, did you know you are the best in the world because I said so.

Umm, on second thoughts, maybe they would and that is part of its problem. Maybe Labor is more interesed in meeting the ideals of the IMF and other international org who actually get their info from Aust sources.

As most Aust's know, Swan did not have much clue, and maybe the Libs are right to take greater advice from the private sector to help ministers shape important documents like the budget.

Dear Chris Lewis,

Abraham Lincoln defined democracy as, "government
of the people, by the people, and for the people."
However in practice what
we have is a representative democracy.
That is, we elect representatives who are responsible
for making political decisions on our behalf.

In order for all of us to be able to make informed choices
politically, one of the pre-requisites for our political
system to work is for us (and our representatives)
to have access to information that
we need to make these informed choices.

If we are given false or misleading information,
the democratic process becomes a sham.

Under such circumstances we cannot use our rights
in a meaningful way.

Here's a few examples:

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/editorial/abbott-focuses-on-profit-not-people-20130517-2js2r.html

And:

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/tony-abbotts-budget-reply-porkie-pies/

Lexi my sweet, I can readily believe you enjoy watching Q & A, Media Watch & Insiders. You even say "I find that it's one place that presents diverse opinions on issues - corrects misinformation (Media Watch), and does not have a political bias.", but in fact they actually exceed your own bias, hence your enjoyment of them. They, like Alan, are so far left that they are damaging the labor cause, if that is possible after what Gillard & Swan have done to it.

However sweetie, what I find is that they are just so biased I can not watch them. I do not find the display of the arrogance of the presenters & most guests pleasant to watch.

These people think they are so cleaver that they can pretend to offer an unbiased opinion while subtly, [they think] presenting the left in a good light. It is too painful to watch their stupidity.

Well of course if they had been successful in this we would not see Gillard as the most disliked ever MP in Oz, & Labor would not be where it is in the polls. Actually I find their efforts cringe worthy, & could not bare to watch the pantomime if I were a Labor supporter.

I was a swing voter before Rudd, but no longer. Whatever, I am offended that these clowns think I could be dumb enough to be taken in by their BS. One of the things I most want from a new government ids a 50% minimum trimming of the ABC.

The last straw for me was when they politicized Quantum, the last worth while bit of ABC production. Now it is beyond salvation, & should be privatized, if anyone could be found silly enough buy it.

Alan,

Federal tax revenue in Australia is $330bn, and a swing in revenue figures from $7bn to $17bn in TWO weeks is about 3% of total revenue which is not common among people that know what they are talking about, and certainly didn't come from treasury. In business it would get the CEO and CFO fired.

What happened is Wayn Swan lied about expected revenue increase forecasts for 2013 being 12% when it was not the expected increase, but the upper end of possible revenue outcomes, only a 7.5% increase, he lies and claims that treasury got it wrong, when in reality the lower figure was also within the band of expected revenue.

Whine Swan is not smart enough to get away with the con job that is the budget. It is not surprising that his last budget produced gales of laughter.

Lets have a debate on the economy but lets make
sure we stick to the facts and not the beat-ups in
the tabloid press misrepresenting Australia's
modest debt. The fact is Australia's net debt is
dramatically lower then the net debt levels of
every sinlge major advanced economy. Labor made a
choice to support local jobs during the Global
Financial Crisis, a choice many countries around the
world didn't, or couldn't make. They will be paying a
very high price for many years.

The Australian economy has grown by 9 per cent since
the onset of the GFC. Our unemployment rate was only
5.5 per cent last year and is not expected to rise
above 6 per cent. Yes we're running a deficit - but
its a tiny one - $18 billion in underlying cash terms.
Our deficit is only 1.1 per cent of our gross domestic
product. By the time the budget returns to surplus sometime
in the next few years Australians will have a government
debt of only 11 per cent of GDP.

A negligible figure by any sensible judgement.

Anyway you look at it, ordinary Australians are doing okay
under this government. Nearly a million jobs have been created.
Inequality has steadied, perhaps even fallen. Standards of
living have kept rising. Interest rates are at record lows.

The fact that some people can't see this is a massive
indictment of their judgement and the power of big media,
big business, and big money.

Lexi,

Whine Swan and Juliar promised 500 times to deliver a surplus this year, now we are getting a deficit of about $19.4bn which is about 6% of annual federal tax revenue, which is a hell of a lot.

The federal deficit was less than zero in 2007 and is now about 50% of annual federal revenue.

Lexi, "ordinary Australians are doing okay under this government"

I am certain that ordinary Australians are not doing as well as previously.

As part of voluntary work, I keep the yards and do some minor maintenance for some elderly people. It is very hard not to choke up when informed, as I was just yesterday by a very dear and fiercely independent elderly lady that she would not be insuring her home any more. Just a matter of fact statement over a cup of tea (I make an excuse to bring some milk and fruit cake to leave) and she wasn't seeking sympathy. Yet her own mother could afford to live in her own home until the very last.

Meanwhile on the news, Gillard is proposing that the elderly sell their homes to 'downsize'. The insinuation is that they 'sit' on expensive real estate in homes that are too big for them. Their homes are their memories and are worth nothing where they want to keep them. Most elderly don't last long after being wrenched from that. Maybe that is the idea.

Labor has been busy stealing children's & grand-children's money to buy votes; vanity projects (school laptops, NBN), cruelly non funded NDIS and in fact everything they have touched.
Maybe we need a referendum requiring all pollies to have worked in a real job first to prove they know where money really comes from and to have children so they have a long term perspective (most readily worry as far as grand kids).

Lexi, you keep referring, time and time again, about what great shape we are in, yet you have also failed to acknowledge, time and time again, what FANTASITC SHAPE we were in before labor's wastefest.

Care to debate this point, THIS TIME!

Good morning,

@rehctub, re: “My suggestion to the author is, that rather than draw your info from abroad, simply spend a little time in real people's world”

Fair point, Rehctub.

But which real world? A family in the Pilbara where the parents earn $220,000 each from Rio Tinto? Or down the road at Jiggalong? Or in Melbourne, young executives lunching in Market Lane with a nanny minding their children. Or a refugee family in Broadmeadows?

Yes, we need contact with the real world. Pretty sure I have that, Rehctub. But macro data completes the picture.

@individual, re: “If labor Governments are as good as you’re trying to tell us then why is it that we're always worse off after they get in.”

Fair question also.

First, everyone is worse off now than they would have been without the global financial crisis. So, yes, unemployment is higher now in Australia than in 2007. But not much higher. Certainly waaaay lower than most comparable nations.

Second, you will always live in a world of gloom, doom, disaster, crisis and despair if there is a Labor Government and if you allow yourself exposure to Australia’s mass media. Even during incredible booms.

Conversely, you will be told all's well under Coalition governments even while wealth and income are being systematically shifted from the poor and middle to the rich.

As an exercise, Indi, see how many payslips you can find among your friends. Check the tax taken out now. Then apply the 2007 rate and see how much extra they now take home.

Re: “Australia's ranking on the world list is meaningless if we're worse off when the list says we're near the top.”

You're not near the top, Indi. You're ascendant by a street and shooting further ahead.

You should be enormously grateful you are not still back at 12th – where you certainly would be had your Government not taken those gutsy decisions in 2008-09 to borrow modestly to keep your economy running at near normal pace.

Try to imagine the unemployment, poverty and despair you have avoided. Then cheer up!

Cheers,

Lexi - t's worth asking whether such an inquiry with such wide-ranging powers would have been commissioned by Tony Abbott. Given his personal
history and close relationship with the Catholic Church.There must be considerable doubt

True, Catholic priests are probably the most obvious culprits and I have no doubt the church has used its considerable clout to stave off responsibility. That said, there are plenty of other kiddy-fiddlers in circulation, most of whom have sufficient standing to escape censure. I'm aware of several 'significant' individuals (all known conservatives) who have avoided the embarrassment of public identification. If this is representative, it would add weight to the suggestion that RAbbott & friends actively impeded inquiries.

onthebeach - Most elderly don't last long after being wrenched from that. Maybe that is the idea.

All the more reason to discontinue all post-retirement handouts to politicians & governors and compel the clowns to live in itty-bitty concrete boxes with no airconditioning or heating. The sooner the miserable parasites fall off their perches, the better off we'll be.

praxidice

'I'm aware of several 'significant' individuals (all known conservatives) who have avoided the embarrassment of public identification. '

that makes you as bad as anyone else who has covered up unless you are telling porkies.

Greetings,

@ShadowMinister, re: “a swing in revenue figures from $7bn to $17bn in TWO weeks is … not common among people that know what they are talking about”

Errors of that % are quite common, SM. In recent decades most errors have underestimated revenue rather than overestimated.

Re: “and certainly didn't come from treasury.”

Of course it did, SM. Just ignorant, foolish nonsense! Treasury’s Martin Parkinson explains here:

http://www.treasury.gov.au/PublicationsAndMedia/Speeches/2013/Budgeting-in-Challenging-Times

Re: “In business it would get the CEO and CFO fired.”

We shall see. If there’s a new government in September will Dr Parkinson keep his job? Pretty sure he will.

Re: “What happened is Wayne Swan lied about expected revenue increase forecasts for 2013 being 12%”

Ridiculous nonsense again, SM. And a malicious lie as well. Your evidence?

Re: “Whine Swan is not smart enough to get away with the con job that is the budget … his last budget produced gales of laughter.”

It got a huge tick from those who do not swallow the lies of Australia’s media – the stock markets, investors, the rating agencies, economists, business leaders and the international media.

Re: “now we are getting a deficit of about $19.4bn which is about 6% of annual federal tax revenue, which is a hell of a lot.”

Deficits in other countries, SM? What would it have been now had the Coalition’s feeble response to the GFC been implemented? Where would you rather be?

@Lexi, re: “Australia's net debt is dramatically lower than the net debt levels of every single major advanced economy.”

Almost exactly right, Lexi. Denmark is slightly lower. But Denmark's tax rate is 48.1% compared with Australia’s 25.6%. And has been in negative growth for four out of the last six quarters [Australia none]. So you probably wouldn't want to live there.

Your other observations all seem spot on, Lexi.

@Rehctub, re: “Lexi, you keep referring, time and time again, about what great shape we are in, yet you have also failed to acknowledge what FANTASITC SHAPE we were in before labor's wastefest.”

Rehctub, we have one word for you: global financial crisis!

Cheers,

AA,

Treasury produces a range of forecast scenarios with a spread of outcomes for revenue. There are high revenue forecasts and low ones, the expected outcome is the one where the probability is 50% that the revenue is higher or lower. For a large company to do otherwise in its reporting would invite legal penalties. It is clear that Whine Swan and Juliar opted for the higher range of predictions rather than the expected value. This is a lie, pretty much like the 500 promises to reach a surplus, and the carbon tax were.

The CEO and CFO here that should lose their jobs (and probably will) are Whine and Juliar.

It is notable that the lower than budgeted returns in revenue came almost exclusively from Labor governments, where over estimating tax income allows greater expenditure in the budget, and the ability to blame treasury when the budget is in deficit again.

While a 3% drop in tax revenue is possible in a financial year, the change in 14 days is from political lying not treasury, and I challenge you to provide an example otherwise.

If the coalition had been in charge, the response to the GFC would have been a smaller expenditure (about half) that achieved the same outcomes, and a return to surplus by 2011.

...Rehctub, we have one word for you: global financial crisis!

Ok AA, so did the GFC also cause the insulation debacle, the cash for clunkers, live export stuff up, the fuel/grocery watch jokes, the school halls rip off, the failed ETS scam (Copenhargen) the suggested blow out in the NBN, the alco pops joke, and of cause, the illegals debacle, without doubt labor's worst descision, and one that has cost us dearly.

Furthermore, at what point are you and your dwindling labior supporters going to move on from the tired old GFC line?

I ask that you spare a thought for those who will be presented with the task of fixing this mess created by this incompitent mob, which at this stage looks like the libs.

runner - 'I'm aware of several 'significant' individuals (all known conservatives) who have avoided the embarrassment of public identification. '

They are known to authorities, which is basically How I happen to have knowledge of the individuals in question. I did at one time work with a very close family member of one particularly devious character & there were a few other 'interesting' people in his circle. Problem is that people with enough power get special treatment and never more so than with kiddyfiddlers. Society loves to demonize scumbags like Denis Ferguson who 'look like a pedophile' & are universally considered fair game, but a priest, member of the judiciary, politician or school principle is in an infinitely better position to keep their name out of the media & even to get away with a slap on the wrist. Note particularly there are a number of very good reasons why I'm cynical about legal leeches, bloodsucking parasites & snouts generally ... I've been too close to some nasty pieces of work and seen / heard too many things to be anything but cynical about the political / IN-justice / IL-legal system.

Alan is implacable, what a trooper, doing it tough in France while lecturing us about how good we have it in Australia.

His main point [sic] is that Swan is a genuis for getting Australia through the GFC.

This is garbage. Swan gave $21 billion to households via $900 gifts to get us through the GFC. 40% of that $21 billion went on consumption with the %60 paying down personal debt or being banked; see:

http://andrewleigh.org/pdf/FiscalStimulus.pdf

That consumption either went to purchase of imported goods, mainly from China, or down at the pub or TAB.

A comparison with China is instructive, China's growth declined from 13% to about 7% during the GFC, a major decline but at 7% China was still powering along. The Chinese fiscal stimulus did not take the form of gifts to the citizenry. It went into Fixed Assest Investment [FAI]; things like roads, harbours, power infratructure including many coal power plants, housing etc. China invested nearly $US 700 billion. This stimulus largely compensated for the decline in GDP, mainly to do with the export market, primarily steel production. In effect the stimulus took the growth back to double digits.

China is the main importer of Australian coal. During the GFC Australian coal exports doubled:

http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/stats-pubs/australias-coal-and-iron-ore-exports-2001-to-2011.pdf

This expansion in coal exports largely meant that budget revenue increased during the GFC:

http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/budgets-and-agw.html

The incompetence of this terrible government is therefore plain; firstly it did not need to give away $21 billion, money which could now be spent on their latest thought bubbles like the NDIS, but could have relied on the export expansion, a result which any reasonable analysis could have predicted.

Secondly, it has managed to create a gigantic debt for no good reason; it could have lived within its increasing revenue and now be in good shape instead of having to spend about $18 billion pa on debt interest.

AA doesn't know what he is talking about.

As I've stated earlier let us have a debate on the
economy but lets make sure we stick to the facts.
We should not continue with a beat-up misrepresentation
of Australia's modest debt.

The fact is Australia's net debt is dramatically lower than
the net debt levels of every single major advanced economy.

Our current debt is 10% of GDP compared to around 80% of the
USA and the UK and around 35% of Canada.

Labor made a choice to support local jobs during the GFC, a
choice many countries around the world didn't or couldn't
make. They will be paying a very high price for many years.

Australia's debt is so low, it has the gold triple A
rating. Interest rates are low and our economy
is the envy of the industrialised world.

We need to take a stand against misinformation and spread
the truth.

BTW: There's a big difference between Mr Abbott and the PM.

Just to lighten things up:

One has a nose
The other big ears
One get things done
The other build fears.

Cheers.

Greetings,

@ShadowMinister, re: “Treasury produces a range of forecast scenarios with a spread of outcomes”

Correct. Not produced by cabinet. Produced by public servants for both sides of politics and the community.

Re: “Whine Swan and Juliar opted for the higher range of predictions rather than the expected value.”

No. Have you read Dr Parkinson’s speech, SM?

Re: “The CEO and CFO here that should lose their jobs are Whine and Juliar.”

And Western Australia’s Premier and Treasurer, SM?

Can we expect these headlines shortly?

“Corrupt Liberal Government admits staggering two billion dollar black hole”
“Barnett reveals true state of economy two months after stolen election”
“Abbott demands WA Treasurer sacked in multi-billion dollar fiscal crisis shock”

Re: “If the coalition had been in charge, the response to the GFC would have been a smaller expenditure (about half) that achieved the same outcomes, and a return to surplus by 2011.”

Evidence refutes this overwhelmingly, SM.

Australia was ranked behind the USA, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Finland, Iceland and Luxembourg in 2007.

All implemented smaller stimulus packages than Australia – some about half. Where are they now? It was precisely the size, speed and direction of Australia’s spending which rocketted you to the top.

@rehctub, re “Ok AA, so did the GFC also cause the insulation debacle”

There was no debacle, Rehctub. Don’t get sucked in. Remember Gough Whitlam going to China? An outrage, folly, treachery and crime at the time. But a few years later, it saved Australia. No?

Please read this carefully, Rehctub, then we can discuss:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2011/04/24/the-csiro-gets-hip-to-debunking-media-hysteria/

Re: “cash for clunkers”

Yes. The GFC caused its abandonment.

Re: “live export stuff up”

Please watch this carefully, then we can discuss:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkuFsxaILgQ

Re: “school halls rip off”

Rehctub, can we ask you the prior question: what were the purposes of the HIP and the BER? Then we can discuss that calmly also.

Re: “spare a thought for those presented with the task of fixing this mess …”

So, which country in the world is better-run at the moment, would you say, Rehctub?

Chat soon.

Cheers,

AA,

Yes I did read Parkinson's speech. I noted that he mentioned a revenue increase of 10.8% whilst it was nearly 12% in the budget. I also read a financial report on that budget dated May 2012 which said:

"While this Budget turn-around is historically large, the improvement is mostly underpinned by revenue growth - up 12% in FY13, which is double the 10-year average. Conversely, spending growth is flat (an historic record low)"

Notably Whine Swan's expenditure exceeded the budget by $4.2bn which was entirely within Labor's control.

Considering that it was already clear in March (chart 1) that the forecasts were sub par, the budget in May was already out of date. It is fishy how revenue over forecasts almost always happen during Labor governments.

If the coalition had been in charge, the response to the GFC would have been a smaller expenditure (about half) that achieved the same outcomes, and a return to surplus by 2011. If you have evidence that refutes this, then please show it.

please help us chris lewis is threatening to do more basket weaving, please ensure 75% of your references are from newspapers as usual

"Our current debt is 10% of GDP compared to around 80% of the
USA and the UK and around 35% of Canada."

Debt is here:

http://www.aofm.gov.au/

Currently $257 billion.

GDP is here:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp

2012:
$1.371 trillion

Debt is therefore .237/1.371 x 100 = 17.3%

What's a lousy 7% with the labore party and it's pixie supporters

This may clarify things for the doomsayers:

http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/03/27/heres-the-real-story-of-australian-debt/

Lexi, you have no idea and neither does your link; productive debt which produces a return greater than the investment is good; the labore debt is the other kind; there is nothing to show for it other than a dubious NBN which arguably is already superseded technology.

The Crikey piece claims that running surpluses during the mining boom, which insulated Australia during the GFC for reasons I explain above and which labore groupies like yourself ignore, would have increased unemployment. This is stupid for at least 2 reasons.

Firstly, the way Swan spent his money meant absolutely no lasting employment occurred; secondly the debt it created meant the government has to borrow and repay to cover the debt; that means funds for private investment of the more lasting kind had to compete for funds with the profligate government.

This is basic economics and the witless cargo cult devotees of the labore/green cult cannot even understand this.

I don't doubt for a millisecond that economics is infinitely more involved than it first appears, however there are some Level 101 issues that gubmunts generally, and more particularly socialist ones, have never grasped. First and foremost is the inescapable fact that one cannot possibly spend more than one earns without eventually ending up in deep poo. Secondly, throwing money at lost causes like attempting to buy votes is rarely going to end well. Adding insult to injury by siphoning off a half-billion dollar slush-fund that rightfully should have gone toward the budget deficit and we get a clue how duplicitious these turkeys really are. Thirdly, having a certifiable lunatic treasurer & a couple of 'interesting' feminist females, none of whom have a millisecond of business experience, all running in frantic circles like headless chooks doesn't exactly make for a well organized gubmunt. Fourthly, far too many different cooks in the kitchen, all screaming for their own supper, means the 'customers' miss out. The mob of utter dumbclucks belong the red-headed witch have taken the typical ALP ineptitude to a whole new level, ready & waiting for a carbon-copy Newman / Seeney / Nicholls clone to arrive on the scene and commence World War 4.

Bonjour,

@cohenite, re: “His main point is Swan is a genuis for getting Australia through the GFC.”

Yes. Rudd, Swan, Tanner and Wong. Took Ken Henry’s advice – “Go early, go hard and go households!"

No-one went as hard as Australia, so no other nation averted a recession then difficulties. Poland came second – also averted two negative quarters – but lower quantum and speed.

Presented here: http://www.oecd.org/economy/outlook/42421337.pdf

See figure 3.2 and figure 3.3 middle graph.

Re: “Swan gave $21 billion to households via $900 gifts to get us through the GFC.”

Correct. Then rapid infrastructure spending in every community. Worked as Henry, Stiglitz, Krugman and others predicted – no unemployment blow-out, just one negative quarter, productivity, production, incomes, savings all up, inflation down.

Re: “has managed to create a gigantic debt for no good reason; it could have lived within its increasing revenue and now be in good shape”

No. Doesn’t work that way. Australia was 12th-ranked economy in 2007. The other 11 stronger economies all “lived within their revenue” and all ended up going backwards badly. Australia zoomed to the top. Still forging ahead.

@Lexi, re: “Australia has the gold triple A rating. Interest rates are low and our economy is the envy of the industrialised world.”

Precisely! Love the poem.

@ShadowMinister, re: “Notably Whine Swan's expenditure exceeded the budget by $4.2bn which was entirely within Labor's control.”

Yes. Still scope for increased borrowings and taxes. So spending doesn’t need to be constrained to the point where it will send the economy backwards or lose jobs – as happening elsewhere.

Re: “It is fishy how revenue over forecasts almost always happen during Labor governments.”

Hmmm. Remember the Fraser years, SM?

Re: “If the coalition had been in charge, the response to the GFC would have been a smaller expenditure (about half) that achieved the same outcomes ... If you have evidence that refutes this, then please show it.”

Evidence is those countries which did exactly that – had smaller expenditure than Australia’s. Plain to see. All went backwards badly. Except Australia and Poland.

Refer OECD paper, SM.

Cheers,

AA,

The wildly "optimistic" revenue forecast was only one of the lies in Whine Swan and Juliar's budget. The other clear porkies are the revenue from the carbon tax based on EU carbon credits priced at $15/t when no one else is forecasting a price much higher than $6/t, and a jump in mining tax revenue when all the affecting factors such as ore prices and terms of trade are forecast by treasury to stay the same.

The $21bn cash splash was shown to have almost no effect on jobs, and the school halls debacle was only minimally effective, as most of the expenditure occurred after the worst of the GFC, and risk of recession had passed. The performance of the economy is purely from the fantastic shape the coalition left it in, and in spite of Labor's poor management

Is the red team as 'out with the fairies' as many blue team disciples believe, or is their accounting actually intentional ?? On one hand, one assumes **NOBODY**, not even the dying duck, could be stupid enough to get so many elementary things wrong so many times, but then the thought occurs that 'Whine & Co' are having their strings pulled by the WMF / World Bank / UN / whatever. I'm absolutely amazed the RAbbott hasn't chosen to capitalize on JuLIARs half-million dollar slush-fund, surely that would have been high on his list unless there was some devious reason why not.

No matter how many years pass, SM, I'm always fascinated by your ability to dilute the force of your posts by inserting puerile tags like "Whine" and "Juliar".

It's the sort of thing one expects from a ten year-old.

"It's the sort of thing one expects from a ten year-old."

That's because he's talking to you Poirot.

Very clever, cohenite.

(You're promoted to grade 6)

Dear Prax.,

Perhaps Mr Abbott's got his own worries to answer to
in Court in June?

Dear Alan,

Thank You for your continued well reasoned responses.
It's refreshing to read thoughtful and non-abusive
arguments. The confected anger that has been for some
time now the stock-in-trade of some radio broadcasters
and columnists has done its work, and has unleashed
a nasty, anti-social and destructive power that has
real consequences for the cohesion of our society.

The art of reasoned, intelligent, argument is a skill
not easily acquired.

You've got it in spades.

Greetings again,

Just a few follow-ups:

@Chris Lewis, re: “I still notice his holiness has still not answered whether he supports the will of the people as the ultimate arbitrator of a govt's performance.”

Hmmm. Well, I tried this [above]: “So would you have opposed women voting in the 1890s, Chris? Aborigines voting in the 1950s? Opening trade with China in the 1970s? Cutting tariffs in the 1980s? All those were overwhelmingly opposed by public opinion.”

The majority is not often wrong. But sometimes spectacularly so. In retrospect those are usually times when information is controlled or when an onslaught of propaganda in one direction causes a sort of herd mentality to develop. Like, say, in North Korea or Australia.

But in argumentation theory, no, argumentum ad populum is a logical fallacy, Chris.

@cohenite, re “Debt is therefore .237/1.371 x 100 = 17.3%. What's a lousy 7% with the labore party and it's pixie supporters”

The 17.3% relates to total or gross debt. The 10% Lexi referred to relates to government NET debt, after deducting the loans the government has out.

The difference is important, Anthony, so you may wish to ask your accountant to explain it. But don’t feel bad about getting this wrong. The Shadow Treasurer confuses this also.

Re: “the labore debt is the other kind; there is nothing to show for it other than a dubious NBN which arguably is already superseded technology.”

Best economy in the world by a margin, Anthony. As an exercise, which economy would you say is second?

@ShadowMinister, re: “revenue from the carbon tax based on EU carbon credits priced at $15/t when no one else is forecasting a price much higher than $6/t, and a jump in mining tax revenue ...”

Yes. These both need attention. We can expect whoever wins in September to fix them both.

@Lexi, thank you.

Finally, Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey presented an alternative vision yesterday at the Press Club. Unfortunately it repeated several of the falsehoods of the Opposition Leader and included a few new ones.

Analysis here:

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/sloppy-joe-hockeys-fifteen-biggest-press-club-furphies/

Happy to chat further there.

Cheers,

AA,

Good that you acknowledge that the 2012-13 and 2013-14 budgets were based on fudged figures.

Also from the figures that Parkinson provided, it shows that profitability of Australian companies is collapsing, compared to the improved profitability of companies in the US and Canada, this shows what poor economic managers Labor are.

Dear Shadow Minister,

What a "meaty" response from you regarding
the "fudging" of figures. I've got a "meaty"
reaction for you. Baloney!

Here's a link on who's playing politics with Treasury:

http://newmatilda.com/2013/05/23/just-who-playing-politics-treasury

Lexi,

New Matilda again? I thought you had grown up and weaned yourself from that vacuous greenie blog. Ben Eltham's economic credentials are zero and wouldn't understand a simple balance sheet.

"Leading economist Henry Ergas has described the budget projections as "garbage" and opposition climate action spokesman Greg Hunt has warned the government is exposed to a $6 billion black hole.

The attack is based on an explanation in the budget papers from Treasury that "carbon prices in the budget projection years are not forecasts of carbon prices".

Instead they represent a straight line drawn between market prices in 2014-15 (about $5.60) to the $38 projection contained in Treasury modelling for the government's initial carbon scheme.

"Projections for carbon prices for emissions liabilities for 2015-16 and 2016-17 incorporate the straightforward approach of a linear transition from market prices in 2014-15 to the modelled price of $38 in 2019-20," Treasury said in the budget.

But Treasury explained the $38 figure is not a forecast of the market price in 2019-20 but "the price levels required to meet long-term global environmental goals as well as the international commitment pledges for 2020"."

In other words the revenues from the carbon tax are made up, as are the mining tax revenues and tax revenue growth. This is contained in the Budget 2014/14 fine print.

It looks as though Whine Swan and Juliar are still pathological liars.

Shadow Minister,

Don't you realise that there are enough people to
dislike in the world already without your putting in so
much effort to give us another?

The GFC stimulouse was a fiasco, speaking first hand, much of it went into pokies (Pubs just LOVED it), flat screens and veins. Not a bridge, rail line, freeway, satellite, port, power station or anything that will cover the loan costs to be paid by generations to come.

The increasingly hysterical incumbents have publically fudged the figures and without doubt reality is much worse given their financial experience consists of "Slush Funds".

Yes we know about slush funds and litigation pending.
Mr Abbott faces court in June. Whereas the PM is free
and clear. Interesting.

Lexi,

What we have is an ongoing investigation by the police into possible criminal activities by the PM and the other AWU scumbags. Including the recent seizure of recordings of her statements on the issue.

With Abbott we have one individual trying to claim damages from TA because of a prosecution by the AG of Queensland. TA is free and clear from criminal prosecution which Juliar is not.

Shadow Minister - What we have is an ongoing investigation by the police into possible criminal activities by the PM and the other AWU scumbags. Including the recent seizure of recordings of her statements on the issue.

With Abbott we have one individual trying to claim damages from TA because of a prosecution by the AG of Queensland. TA is free and clear from criminal prosecution which Juliar is not.

I understand, albeit not from a source I regard as 100% reliable, that a politician accused of a criminal offence must immediately stand down or risk being found be guilty of treason. I am aware that the red-headed witch has been the subject of at least two civil actions citing treason, however to the best of my knowledge neither proceeded because no judge was willing to hear a civil charge of treason. Mind you this is hardly surprising given the closed and incestuous nature of the political / judicial club. Whatever the true story, justice should be seen to be done. No politician has a right to be above the law, if there are in fact allegations of serious misconduct on the part of elected officials, the people have every right to expect full & transparent investigation, furthermore the governor general is in neglect of duty if such investigation isn't given due attention. Even if the charge isn't proven or isn't of a criminal nature, there is a good case for complete details to be published where elected officials are involved. Note the muck-raking to which electoral candidates are subjected, why should a lower standard apply to those at the top of the pile ??