...Rehctub, we have one word for you: global financial crisis!

Ok AA, so did the GFC also cause the insulation debacle, the cash for clunkers, live export stuff up, the fuel/grocery watch jokes, the school halls rip off, the failed ETS scam (Copenhargen) the suggested blow out in the NBN, the alco pops joke, and of cause, the illegals debacle, without doubt labor's worst descision, and one that has cost us dearly.

Furthermore, at what point are you and your dwindling labior supporters going to move on from the tired old GFC line?

I ask that you spare a thought for those who will be presented with the task of fixing this mess created by this incompitent mob, which at this stage looks like the libs.

runner - 'I'm aware of several 'significant' individuals (all known conservatives) who have avoided the embarrassment of public identification. '

They are known to authorities, which is basically How I happen to have knowledge of the individuals in question. I did at one time work with a very close family member of one particularly devious character & there were a few other 'interesting' people in his circle. Problem is that people with enough power get special treatment and never more so than with kiddyfiddlers. Society loves to demonize scumbags like Denis Ferguson who 'look like a pedophile' & are universally considered fair game, but a priest, member of the judiciary, politician or school principle is in an infinitely better position to keep their name out of the media & even to get away with a slap on the wrist. Note particularly there are a number of very good reasons why I'm cynical about legal leeches, bloodsucking parasites & snouts generally ... I've been too close to some nasty pieces of work and seen / heard too many things to be anything but cynical about the political / IN-justice / IL-legal system.

Alan is implacable, what a trooper, doing it tough in France while lecturing us about how good we have it in Australia.

His main point [sic] is that Swan is a genuis for getting Australia through the GFC.

This is garbage. Swan gave $21 billion to households via $900 gifts to get us through the GFC. 40% of that $21 billion went on consumption with the %60 paying down personal debt or being banked; see:

http://andrewleigh.org/pdf/FiscalStimulus.pdf

That consumption either went to purchase of imported goods, mainly from China, or down at the pub or TAB.

A comparison with China is instructive, China's growth declined from 13% to about 7% during the GFC, a major decline but at 7% China was still powering along. The Chinese fiscal stimulus did not take the form of gifts to the citizenry. It went into Fixed Assest Investment [FAI]; things like roads, harbours, power infratructure including many coal power plants, housing etc. China invested nearly $US 700 billion. This stimulus largely compensated for the decline in GDP, mainly to do with the export market, primarily steel production. In effect the stimulus took the growth back to double digits.

China is the main importer of Australian coal. During the GFC Australian coal exports doubled:

http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/stats-pubs/australias-coal-and-iron-ore-exports-2001-to-2011.pdf

This expansion in coal exports largely meant that budget revenue increased during the GFC:

http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/budgets-and-agw.html

The incompetence of this terrible government is therefore plain; firstly it did not need to give away $21 billion, money which could now be spent on their latest thought bubbles like the NDIS, but could have relied on the export expansion, a result which any reasonable analysis could have predicted.

Secondly, it has managed to create a gigantic debt for no good reason; it could have lived within its increasing revenue and now be in good shape instead of having to spend about $18 billion pa on debt interest.

AA doesn't know what he is talking about.

As I've stated earlier let us have a debate on the
economy but lets make sure we stick to the facts.
We should not continue with a beat-up misrepresentation
of Australia's modest debt.

The fact is Australia's net debt is dramatically lower than
the net debt levels of every single major advanced economy.

Our current debt is 10% of GDP compared to around 80% of the
USA and the UK and around 35% of Canada.

Labor made a choice to support local jobs during the GFC, a
choice many countries around the world didn't or couldn't
make. They will be paying a very high price for many years.

Australia's debt is so low, it has the gold triple A
rating. Interest rates are low and our economy
is the envy of the industrialised world.

We need to take a stand against misinformation and spread
the truth.

BTW: There's a big difference between Mr Abbott and the PM.

Just to lighten things up:

One has a nose
The other big ears
One get things done
The other build fears.

Cheers.

Greetings,

@ShadowMinister, re: “Treasury produces a range of forecast scenarios with a spread of outcomes”

Correct. Not produced by cabinet. Produced by public servants for both sides of politics and the community.

Re: “Whine Swan and Juliar opted for the higher range of predictions rather than the expected value.”

No. Have you read Dr Parkinson’s speech, SM?

Re: “The CEO and CFO here that should lose their jobs are Whine and Juliar.”

And Western Australia’s Premier and Treasurer, SM?

Can we expect these headlines shortly?

“Corrupt Liberal Government admits staggering two billion dollar black hole”
“Barnett reveals true state of economy two months after stolen election”
“Abbott demands WA Treasurer sacked in multi-billion dollar fiscal crisis shock”

Re: “If the coalition had been in charge, the response to the GFC would have been a smaller expenditure (about half) that achieved the same outcomes, and a return to surplus by 2011.”

Evidence refutes this overwhelmingly, SM.

Australia was ranked behind the USA, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Finland, Iceland and Luxembourg in 2007.

All implemented smaller stimulus packages than Australia – some about half. Where are they now? It was precisely the size, speed and direction of Australia’s spending which rocketted you to the top.

@rehctub, re “Ok AA, so did the GFC also cause the insulation debacle”

There was no debacle, Rehctub. Don’t get sucked in. Remember Gough Whitlam going to China? An outrage, folly, treachery and crime at the time. But a few years later, it saved Australia. No?

Please read this carefully, Rehctub, then we can discuss:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2011/04/24/the-csiro-gets-hip-to-debunking-media-hysteria/

Re: “cash for clunkers”

Yes. The GFC caused its abandonment.

Re: “live export stuff up”

Please watch this carefully, then we can discuss:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkuFsxaILgQ

Re: “school halls rip off”

Rehctub, can we ask you the prior question: what were the purposes of the HIP and the BER? Then we can discuss that calmly also.

Re: “spare a thought for those presented with the task of fixing this mess …”

So, which country in the world is better-run at the moment, would you say, Rehctub?

Chat soon.

Cheers,

AA,

Yes I did read Parkinson's speech. I noted that he mentioned a revenue increase of 10.8% whilst it was nearly 12% in the budget. I also read a financial report on that budget dated May 2012 which said:

"While this Budget turn-around is historically large, the improvement is mostly underpinned by revenue growth - up 12% in FY13, which is double the 10-year average. Conversely, spending growth is flat (an historic record low)"

Notably Whine Swan's expenditure exceeded the budget by $4.2bn which was entirely within Labor's control.

Considering that it was already clear in March (chart 1) that the forecasts were sub par, the budget in May was already out of date. It is fishy how revenue over forecasts almost always happen during Labor governments.

If the coalition had been in charge, the response to the GFC would have been a smaller expenditure (about half) that achieved the same outcomes, and a return to surplus by 2011. If you have evidence that refutes this, then please show it.