Hello,

@Shadow Minister, agree mostly.

Re: “The US hit a higher peak, and is now trending down at less than 8%.”

Correct. Australia and the US were near-identical in 2007. Then the US jobless rate soared to 10%. As happened widely.

Australia’s never exceeded 5.8%. Extraordinary!

Re: “freedom score is 82.6 … the 3rd freest in 2013”

Correct. Higher than Howard/Costello ever achieved.

Re: “The Howard government had a AAA rating, but the scarcity of government bonds made the rating difficult.”

No. Australia gained triple A with Fitch for the first time in 2011. You have always had bonds.

@Raycom, re “a quick reading of Chris Lewis' well researched paper.”

What do you regard as the scheme's fundamental purpose, Raycom?

Were you surprised the principal data source was Murdoch newspapers?

Why do you think there was no mention of the CSIRO's research?

@Rhian, re: “Later analysis by the ILO … puts Australia’s fiscal stimulus in the middle of the pack.”

On quantum, yes. But as Steffen Ahrens found, “mere size of the stimulus does not guarantee success”. More important is “choice of the specific actions taken”.

Australia was alone in (1) speed, (2) quantum of immediate handouts to families, (3) quantum of rapid infrastructure programs, and (4) minimal tax cuts.

The country closest to Australia’s strategy was Poland - the only other OECD country to avoid a technical recession.

Re: “You are wrong to say Australia’s fiscal position … was unexceptional.”

Well, Australia had lower borrowings than average. But you weren’t alone in that.

So questions are:

(a) How did Australia fare through the GFC?
(b) How did other countries fare with low borrowings and budget surpluses?
(c) How did other countries fare with high borrowings and budget deficits?
(d) Is there a correlation?

Answers are (a) incredibly well, (b) badly, (c) some well, some badly, (d) no.

Re: iron ore, your data is correct, Rhian. But if the iron ore price theory had validity, Brazil should have experienced some benefit like Australia’s, if less dramatic. Brazil’s ore export volumes are lower than Australia's, but still vast.

It didn’t.

Cheers.

Well Austin, the main thing you need to recognise is you are just one opinion, and a very ordinary one at that. You might think you are above virtulaly all others, except those who mirror your bias, but most of us know you are not.

In fact, i want to see just one qualified journalist or academic come on this forum and actually confirm that your pathetic efforts have any scholarly qualification at all given some of the difficulties now facing Austs and domestic businesses.

Collectively speaking, our democracy (I speak for Austs who live here)is most likley to boot out Labor due to a belief that it did a very poor job.

In the end, we like to think our own bs counts. But in the end, it is the wisdom of the masses in a well-educated country that will decide. And thank God for that (should one actually exist).

I do hope you will raise a glass of wine (or whatever) to celebrate the verdict of the Aust people come election day.

Rubbish about fiscal stimulus "saving Australia from recession". Great Britain's deficit is 8% of GDP, hows that going for them? Even a die hard Keyensian like Paul Krugman will tell you that when you have an inflation targeting central bank with interest rates above zero, the fiscal multiplier is pretty much zero.

Greetings again,

@imajulianutter, re: “It's in all our media in Australia that Tax revenue is rising.”

Correct, Keith. Overall revenue is rising and will continue to increase for the foreseeable. Some sectors are declining, though, as identified above.

Australia's Shock Horror Disaster Debacle headlines relate to the forward estimates. Substantial revisons downwards in recent weeks.

Happening worldwide, not just in Australia.

@Grim 23, re “Great Britain's deficit is 8% of GDP, hows that going for them?”

Correct, Grim23. Exactly. Britain is an intriguing comparison.

In 2007 Britain and Australia were similar. Both had interest rates around 6%, unemployment within the OECD average band between 4% and 6%, and economic growth within the OECD average between 3% and 5%.

Britain was 9th best-performed economy in the world. Australia was 11th with much lower GDP per capita.

Then the GFC hit. Britain did what most countries did and what the Opposition and media in Australia urged – modest, careful stimulus.

Australia, however, headed off on its own with an extraordinarily energetic intervention. They virtually tipped cash into the streets – even mailing cheques to dead people! They stuffed insulation up every manhole they could find and whacked a new hall in every school yard, whether it had students or not.

Alone in the world, the Rudd Government handed out a staggering 3.3% of its GDP in the first few months. Next highest was the USA which spent 2.4%. Not enough, we know now.

All others, including Britain, spent well below this. The OECD averaged 0.7%.

Then Australia launched an equally rapid infrastructure campaign – also unique in the world.

The rest is history. Australia is clearly the world’s best-managed economy. Not just now but at any time in history. Incredibly impressive given the global downturn.

Britain is still in 9th place – where Australia would be had the conventional strategy been followed. Unemployment is 7.8%, debt is 91% of GDP, interest on savings a miserable 0.5%, GDP growth 0.3%, budget deficit 6.3%. And a hefty dole bill likely to grow. These look like worsening.

So you Aussies can cheer up!

No, really.

"Australia is clearly the world’s best-managed economy. Not just now but at any time in history. Incredibly impressive given the global downturn."

At first blush one would laugh at this but coming from dear Alan we know he means it.

We already have seen how the HIP was a disaster, the BER featured gross cost overruns and exemplifies the point; what was done could and should have been done for half the price, even if you allow for the fact that money was spent at schools which later were closed and myriad other waste and overruns.

Every policy of this government fails on a cost/benefit analysis; the NBN is a classic because it hasn't even had a cost/benefit analysis done!

What about the mining tax which cost more to set up then it will collect because this witless government forgot the tax liability of mining companies is mitigated by the payment of state royalties and that exploration and infrastructure expenditure are tax deductions.

My favourite, even if it only featured relatively small dollar waste, was the set-top box fiasco where the overpriced things [up to 5 times the price of what the price was in the stores] were send to blind pensioners.

That is a fitting symbol of this government; and it is why noone believes Gillard's NDIS will ever work and that it was just a wedge tactic and a distraction.

Whatever happened to the fast train?

Next week it will be a Moon base.

Alan you are delusional.

That still doesn't address my point. How can fiscal stimulus boost demand when the central bank is targeting inflation? If interest rates are above zero, the central bank should have no problem hitting its inflation target. if they fall to zero, there is a case for fiscal stimulus, but monetary policy would still be effective.

Monetary policy in the US, UK and Europe has been extremely tight since mid 2008. Australia had much more effective monetary policy than Britain during the crisis. Fiscal policy has nothing to do with it. Every serious new keyensian macroeconomist will tell you that if interest rates are above zero the fiscal multiplier is zero.