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Debt and deficit Downunder – a view from Europe : Comments
By Alan Austin, published 30/4/2013Australia's Prime Minister has just delivered a speech similar to that of most of her counterparts across the globe. Though with notably brighter news.
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Posted by Shadow Minister, Friday, 17 May 2013 8:47:21 AM
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Hello again all,
Hi Shadow Minister, You are doing some research. Excellent! While you have ABS spreadsheets open, here are a few more questions to explore: 1. What was the highest job participation rate Australia ever achieved? Which months? Was this at the depths of the global financial crisis? How can this possibly be explained? 2. Yes, “Job participation rate in Sept 2007 was 65.4%” in Australia [trend figures]. What was the OECD average then? Yes, “and April is 65.3%” in Australia. What is the OECD average now? 3. “Similarly the unemployment in Sept 07 was 4.2%.” In Australia, yes. What was the OECD average then? And unemployment in Australia “was in April 2013 5.5%”. What is the OECD average now? What is Canada's now? It is vital we avoid the trap of the Australia's mendacious media - pretending that the worst worldwide economic cataclysm since the 1930s simply doesn’t exist. 4. Regarding: “There was, contrary to your claim, almost no recovery in the last quarter of 2012 and very little in the beginning of 2013.” Compare December 2012 with now. Yes, the shift in trend participation rate is only 0.2. But that is actually 103 000 new jobs. Not bad. Compare that with your Canada, SM, where there was a net loss of 13 000 jobs over that four months. In the UK, the loss was 43 000 in that period. If you are keen to gain a truly complete picture, SM, you may like to look at the seasonally adjusted figures, instead of just the trend. You may also like to look at the participation rate among the working age population, which adjusts for the gradual increase in the retired demographic. Then compare all these with both Canada and the rest of the OECD. The more we examine the data, SM, the more we understand how governments and economists around the world are looking in stunned amazement at the economic performance of Australia since the beginning of 2008. Cheers, Posted by Alan Austin, Friday, 17 May 2013 3:45:10 PM
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AA, do you seriously think i could be bothered wasting my time with you in regard to my article.
Do you think i am stupid enough to think you are a reasonable person you can discuss things with. I have been around long enough to no some one not quite right. I think most people on this site aware of me, know i am willing to engage with criticism of my pieces, but with you why would i bother with nitpicking like 'why did you not include the CSIRO or given more attention to Rod'. You are hilarious and you expect me to take you seriously. As for your review of the other paper, you must be kidding. That site is an absolute joke, it mirrors your bias and mediocrity. You should write a criticism of the piece to the publishers and see if you get published. Go on Alan, you are a champion in your own lucch time. You can do it. Give it a go. you are the biggest dreamer i have ever come across in terms of public discourse. You actually think you are good don't you. But how can your opinion be so out of tune with the clear majority of Aust's? Again, i could not care less what you think. My summary of the HIP, assessed against texts concerning best public service practice, got published in 2 publications because it was deemed a good article, so who cares what you say. I am have got a lot of praise, with agreement of my analysis in further papers. Refer to the Aust Journal of Public Administration where Dollery and Koort supported much of what I said. And you can answer my question, do you have regard for majority opinion in a liberal democracy. I aks this because the masses dont agree with your bs or Labor. How do you explain this? I wont be responding to you again, so i will let you have the last ramble. Your are indeed a champion at that. Posted by Chris Lewis, Friday, 17 May 2013 4:34:53 PM
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SM,i am surprised you would perisist with AA. Do you honestly think he would ever concede. He has internaitonal opinion and his summary of the data on his side, so he now thinks he is some sort of intellectual that can weigh things up.
I mean abit of humility and less arrogance would be a start for him; i am surporised more readrers have not launched into him. What would he actually know of the Aust experience? I mean does he live here. Does he get any first hand info from people struggling? I dont understand why the churches would employ him? I think he is kind of evil, so hoping judgment day is not too kind to him, albeit i think he may have that one wrong as well. Posted by Chris Lewis, Friday, 17 May 2013 5:07:31 PM
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'The more we examine the data, SM, the more we understand how governments and economists around the world are looking in stunned amazement at the economic performance of Australia since the beginning of 2008'.
I mean does it get any funnier. Who agrees with this. Graham Young, cant you use this quote as part of a opinion poll. On second thoughts dont bother, some people dont accept certain evidence, unless it is of course the OECD or the IMF, the same idiots that could not predict the GFC. Even i knew it was coming (when a labourer) and got my money out, saved a few others too. AA, i fogot to share the moment with you when the audience cheered loudly at Abbott's budget speech bagging this very poor govt; A bit like when that other overrated PM keating got heckled in parl. when defending Ros Kelly. I love it when the people speak and express their emotion. Liberal democracy is the best, dont you think AA? But i will be thinking of you on election day when Labor rightfully gets the flick and most Aust's reject stupid arguments like 'Aust has never had it better'. Adios amigo, and pray for me that i never read your comments and silly opinion pieces again. Life is too short to waste time. Posted by Chris Lewis, Friday, 17 May 2013 5:23:37 PM
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Chris Lewis,
An brief article and a graph from The Economist......seems to be backing Alan's take on things. http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/12/focus-3 Posted by Poirot, Friday, 17 May 2013 7:05:55 PM
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You can keep on wiggling, but I have got you nailed.
Job participation rate in Sept 2007 was 65.4% July 2012 was 65.2% Feb 2012 was 65.1% and April is 65.3% (From the ABS)
Similarly the unemployment in Sept 07 was 4.2% and was in April 13 5.5%
The points of which are under Labor:
-There was, contrary to your claim, almost no recovery in the last quarter of 2012 and very little in the beginning of 2013.
-Job participation has not changed, yet unemployment has increased, so the net % employed has dropped.
-For similar countries, Canada whose economy is the closest to ours has a roughly unchanged participation rate and an unemployment rate that is trending down contrary to Australia's.
Swan has produced 6 budgets that have been a complete joke. Every single one has been characterized by wildly optimistic revenue forcasts (taken from the very top of the treasury forecast band), and expenditure forecasts that have alwsys been exceeded.
In net terms you can see why the Labor government is widely regarded as financially incompetent.