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The Forum > Article Comments > Debt and deficit Downunder – a view from Europe > Comments

Debt and deficit Downunder – a view from Europe : Comments

By Alan Austin, published 30/4/2013

Australia's Prime Minister has just delivered a speech similar to that of most of her counterparts across the globe. Though with notably brighter news.

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Good morning all,

@Shadow Minister, re “Both Fitch and Standard and Poors have issued warnings that the AAA credit ratings may be threatened unless Labor brings it deficits under control.”

Almost correct. With an election looming, the agencies are warning the Opposition – and maybe voters – not to revert to the profligate spending, foreign exchange losses and the other disasters of the Howard/Costello years.

It's a fulsome commendation of Labor’s strategy, having delivered the world’s best-managed economy, as we have seen.

Moody’s said about the Budget, “Australia's relatively low level of government debt has been one of the factors supporting the Aaa rating.”

Re: “The restoration of Australia's AAA rating came after six surplus budgets were delivered.”

Not quite, SM. Australia first gained AAA with all three agencies in 2011, when Fitch joined Moody’s and Standard and Poors. This came after three deficits were delivered, with two more in the forward estimates.

Australia’s deficits and borrowings, according to the agencies and international economists, are exactly right for the times.

Moody’s again:

“The size of the deficits is such that the gross debt of the Commonwealth government will rise only slightly from its currently estimated 19.3% of GDP to a peak of 20.6% in 2014-15. On a net basis, the peak will be 11.4% of GDP, and the government's long-term forecasts have this figure falling to zero early in the next decade.”

Re: “In 2003, S&P said Australia "has one of the strongest fiscal positions" and its reinstatement of the AAA rating paved the way for Australian companies to borrow funds at a cheaper price.”

Unfortunately, 2004 to 07 saw the squandering of billions derived from assets sales and the resources boom, as the IMF reported in January. Where did all that money go?

So frustratingly inept!

Re: “It is no wonder that Swan is considered the most incompetent treasurers in living memory.”

By whom, SM? Not by the ratings agencies, the markets, economists and treasurers overseas. They are all in awe at Australia getting everything so incredibly well-balanced at the depths of the worst recession since the 1930s.

Cheers,
Posted by Alan Austin, Sunday, 19 May 2013 5:51:33 PM
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Please note that Australian voters dont give a continental about 'ratings agencies, the markets, economists and treasurers overseas' when they make their own judgments about a treasurer and a govt.

We make our own minds up and pay little attention to propoganda.
Posted by Chris Lewis, Sunday, 19 May 2013 7:22:41 PM
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AA,

Now you are just making things up. The warnings of S&P and Fitch were directed at the sitting government, and warning against its inability to meet even one of its budgets.

It's a fulsome condemnation of Labor’s strategy, having delivered one of the world’s worst-managed economy, as we have seen.

It is no wonder that Swan is considered one of the most incompetent treasurers in Australia'a history.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Monday, 20 May 2013 4:00:19 AM
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Hello again Shadow Minister,

Re: “Now you are just making things up.”

Not at all. Just quoting the authorities and the statistical data.

But here’s the thing: It looks unbelievable because what authorities and the data tell us is the very opposite of what the Coalition, the Murdoch media, Fairfax media and the ABC try to convey every day.

The problem, of course, is that they lie. Continually, consistently and in chorus.

So the beginning of wisdom is to stop reading/listening to/watching Australia’s media and become well-informed. This also makes us more popular at parties.

Re: “The warnings of S&P and Fitch were directed at the sitting government, and warning against its inability to meet even one of its budgets.”

Not true, SM. As soon as the agencies have any concern at all about a government, they issue a negative watch. For example, Luxembourg’s last Budget was a deficit higher than the previous one, so is now on negative watch with Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s.

Luxembourg! Richest country in the OECD.

Australia’s deficit is decreasing year on year, so on stable watch with all three agencies.

The commentary is aimed at businesses, consumers and investors – and also oppositions and voters.

Re: “It's a fulsome condemnation of Labor’s strategy, having delivered one of the world’s worst-managed economy, as we have seen.”

Not at all, SM. Triple A and stable outlook with all three is a rare commendation. Peter Costello never achieved that, did he?

There is no better-managed economy anywhere in the world, SM, is there?

Re: “It is no wonder that Swan is considered one of the most incompetent treasurers in Australia’s history.”

Only by those who do not have a clue, SM.

Cheers,
Posted by Alan Austin, Tuesday, 21 May 2013 7:55:46 AM
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