Chris,

Well you don't come across most times on OLO as crude.

You usually come across as quite measured.

I suppose I shouldn't lecture you too much, as there are a couple of posters on OLO who get up my nose, and to whom I send the odd exaggerated raspberry.

Alan's strength is that he doesn't get side-tracked by opposing argument. He's singularly focused and concentrated on deconstructing opposing argument and offering up his own analysis in reply.

Anyway, stick around. We need all the sensible discussion we can muster around here :)

AA,

I generally refrain from accusing anyone of ignorance without an impressive display. From what you post it appears that you know nothing of economics, it is however entirely possible that you are very good at feigning ignorance.

When you got a mortgage, you also got a house with a prospect of long term capital gains, and income from rent or not having to pay rent. If for any reason, you could not pay the mortgage, you could pay off the debt by the sale of the house.

Which is precisely why there is no comparison with a mortgage and Juliar's debt since there is very little of value left from the $90bn in stimulus or the further $170bn of accumulated debt. If you woke up with a credit card debt worth nearly 6 months income, only a moron would not be concerned.

As for the ABS figures you quote, it is obvious that you are stranger to statistics. If you were doing more than surfing the net to cherry pick data, you would have picked up that the stats deviated significantly from reported figures. An educated person would have realized that the figures were obviously taken in a different context. for example the same data you quote gives unemployment at 6.2% and 6.1% for Feb and March 2013.

The graph from the RBA is http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2013/feb/graphs/graph-c1.html
The participation rate increased dramatically under Howard ending at roughly 65.5% where it is now (65.3%)

As for "economic freedom" simply using the information you supplied, the influence of the labor government has been negative. If you have a comparison with the Howard years please feel free to provide it.

Even discounting the GFC the Howard government far outperformed Labor which is a dismal failure. Correct?

Good morning all,

Thanks for these responses.

@Shadow Minister, re: “When you got a mortgage, you also got a house with a prospect of long term capital gains, and income from rent or not having to pay rent.”

Correct. Same with the stimulus package investments. No?

Have you see the projections of future savings with the insulated buildings, SM? Or projections of future earnings from social housing or any of the other assets built?

Professor Tiffin says, “The Department of Environment estimated that insulation would cut the normal household’s energy bills by around $200 a year. According to one estimate during the controversy, putting ceiling insulation in 2.2 million homes would save as much energy as taking a million cars off the road ... Another estimate said that ceiling insulation cuts household energy use by up to 45% ... Whatever the actual figures, the environmental benefits are clearly substantial.”

Re: “If you were doing more than surfing the net to cherry pick data, you would have picked up that the stats deviated significantly from reported figures.”

We could look at several charts, SM: original, trend and seasonally adjusted. Proportion of age 15 to 64, or of total population. And yes, there are deviations, outliers and so on.

But the observations, above, remain true.

The graph you have linked has two weaknesses, SM: 1. It doesn't show the measure of job participation used, and 2. shows the dip downwards at August 2012, but doesn’t show the rebound through late 2012 and 2013, does it?

The more serious deficiency with your case, however, SM, is that you appear to be ignoring the global environment.

Please compare the shape of your graph with this one:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Across the world, job participation has plummetted downwards from 2008 levels. No?

Except in one country. When we look at the overall economic performance of the Howard Government relative to the rest of the world, it slipped back to about 11th place by 2007.

Look at the comparative data now, and Australia is clearly top. Top by an impressive margin. And continuing to forge further ahead.

Cheers,

I find Chris Lewis's logic bizarre. Somehow the federal government is to blame for installation failures of pink bats. What absolute nonsense. The failure lies with the installer businesses they broke the law, they failed to provide training, they failed to provide supervision, they failed to provide a safe work environment. The government provided incentives in effect becoming a partial funding source. Do we blame the Commonwealth bank when they provide finances for housing loans for injuries that occur in the house construction industry?
Do we blame the government for injuries on farms because the government has provided drought relief or flood relief, is the ATO responsible for providing depreciation allowance on capital equipment without ensuring that the companies are putting that money into maintenance or capital equipment replacement and there are injuries in the workplace. We provide diesel rebates for farmers and miners so is the government to blame for every injury that occurs in a diesel powered vehicle? remember this work was not licensed work, the regulation of this work was a state government responsibility. Chris you have swallowed complete bunkum and are too arrogant to admit it, I hope you are not a graduate of the same university as I graduated from because this display of being brainwashed by ill informed mass media would seriously erode the reputation of any tertiary institution

AA,

The federal government is not going to get any revenue from its stimulus expenditure. The pink batts debacle will save home owners about $400m p.a. from an expenditure in the region of $90bn, and the school halls stuff up provided halls that were seldom a priority for double the price they should have cost, for a public school system that is growing very slowly. A number of schools that had millions spent on them were tagged for closure before the halls were built and were closed as the halls were being finished.

So there is bugger all return from the stimulus and should be compared to credit card debt not a mortgage.

The job participation rate in Feb 2013 was 65.1% which was lower than in the final months of the Howard government. But unemployment was higher meaning that there was a significant percentage of people more working under Howard. Comparing Australia against countries that did not have Howard to make the economy resilient is a waste of time.

All your non qualified claims that Australia has the best outcomes of any government have been shown to be false. You are now left trying to play the GFC card to explain all your failures, just as Swan has the last few months.

Hello again,

@Shadow Minister, re: “The federal government is not going to get any revenue from its stimulus expenditure.”

Really? Almost alone in the developed world, Australia averted recession [with Poland]. So the Government receives literally billions in tax revenue other governments have lost. Correct?

Unemployment was projected to reach 10% during the GFC – as happened elsewhere. Australia’s jobless peaked at 5.8% – earning billions in income tax other governments lost – and saving billions in dole payments. No?

Try to look at things the way economists do, SM.

Re: “The pink batts debacle will save home owners about $400m p.a. from an expenditure in the region of $90bn”

Wrong, wrong and wrong, SM.

First, it wasn’t a debacle. Except, perhaps, in the minds of the mendacious media and the poor souls who believe them.

Second, 1.2 million homes save $250 a year [in today’s money] = $300 million a year

For 50 years = $15 000 million

And, if the insulation lasts 100 years average, then $30 000 million

Third, the actual cost was only $2 500 million. No?

It’s the gift that keeps on giving.

Re: “school halls stuff up provided halls … for double the price they should have cost”

No. Auditors found complaints were lower than normal and wastage about 2%. Not bad seeing waste was not the priority. Saving the economy with rapid investment was.

Re: “A number of schools that had millions spent on them were tagged for closure”

How many can you name, SM?

Re: “The job participation rate in Feb 2013 was 65.1% which was lower than in the final months of the Howard government.”

Only if you look at the rate as a % of the total population. Why not the working age population? And only if you compare “final months” and exclude all other data.

Cherry picking, SM?

Re: “All your non qualified claims that Australia has the best outcomes of any government have been shown to be false.”

No. The opposite is true. No country in any period has been shown to be anywhere near as successful.

Cheers,