AA,

No you haven't included the key indicators. I guess that all you are going to do here is spruik the labor line with the assumption that if you say something long enough people might believe you.

So far that isn't working for labor.

and propoganda wont work here, rightfully so.

Most Aust's know we are going down the tube, regardless of what international comparisons say, albeit their grief is temepered by knowing our luck of minerals in the ground.

They expect govts do indeed react to concerns, not produce poor policies, waste money, and increasingly suck up to an authoritarian state.

Labor had his chance, but it stuffed up, end of story. Another option needs to be given a go.

As for AA, he knows jack ... You are wasting your time even communicating with a know all

Chris,

you are being too kind to Alan. Why don't you tell him the truth.

He knows nothing and his behaviour here is that exhibited by a pathological personality.
ie no respect for honesty and a lack of understanding of loyality.

Greetings all,

@Grim23, re: “Your argument simply isn't consistant with standard macro theory”

Maybe not. But is it consistent with reality?

Re: “You argument does not support recent events, with no correlation between "austerity" and economic growth.”

My observations are that of OECD countries – and another 44 capitalist nations – only Australia helicopter-dropped 3.3% of GDP, followed by rapid infrastructure investment, keeping tax rates level. No?

Only Australia then averted recession, keeping employment high, inflation low, borrowings low and growth steady.

Poland had the second best stimulus, and came second surviving the GFC. Nations with moderate stimulus suffered moderately and are recovering moderately. Nations which stimulated poorly suffered badly and are still suffering.

That’s about it, Grim23. Happy to review the data.

Re: “While Australia recovered quite quickly, other nations have done better since. Germany is one example, where fiscal stimulus was average but growth has been faster than Australia's since 2010.”

Nonsense. Australia’s annual GDP growth is 3.1%. It has been above 3% for the last full year.

Germany’s is now 0.1% and falling. It has been below 3% since the 2nd quarter of 2011. Correct?

Re: “There is still not sufficient evidence that Australia would not be in the same position were it not for the fiscal stimulus.”

Sheesh! Shadow Minister and I have just gone through 25 variables on which Australia is now travelling as well as or better than in 2007 – before the crisis!

Australia is clearly better-managed now than at any time in its history – and WAAAAY better than any other nation ever. Correct?

What, may I ask, Grim23, would you regard as “sufficient evidence”?

Re: “I think the fact that we were the only country with interest rates which never went below zero is just as persuasive ...”

Again, Grim 23, just false. Most OECD countries kept interest rates above zero. No?

Re: “I think your mistake is assuming that correlation implies causation.”

No. It’s not an assumption. It’s a conclusion.

@Shadow Minister, re: “No you haven't included the key indicators.”

Really, SM? Which ones would you like to consider?

Cheers,

Yes, we all have our faults, but he is the weirdist peson i have come across. Sort of personality that would offend people on all sides of politics, as indicated on this forum alone, not just because of his overblown opinion of his own ability, but also from his arrogance.

He who thinks he knows everything, often knows very little. With AA i rest my case.

He is totally out of touch with most Australians and he has total disregard for their opinions.

Again, i ask Austin to have a go at an academic publication with his ridiculous lines and lies. He sure is good at telling eeryone how crap we are, expect for those who write opinion pieces in agreement with his holiness (himself).

In your eyes the relative size of Australia's fiscal stimulus is good enough evidence in favour of fiscal policy. In mine its not. You think that there is correlation between a country's fiscal stimulus and its growth. I dont.

You still haven't explained how fiscal stimulus could boost demand while the RBA is targeting inflation. The two are murually exclusive.

You are ignoring the fact that only in Australia and very few other countries did interest rates not reach zero.

You are ignoring the strong evidence since the crisis that monetary policy wins over fiscal, such as in the US, which has grown despite austerity. And Britain, why employment is at record levels, NGDP is growing, despite the "austerity" and poor RGDP figures. Or Europe where austerity is less severe but mobey is tighter and growth is slower.

I've already explained that bigger stimulus packages would work in the Eurozone, because the countries share a currency. But overall the effect would be zero.
I also explained why stimulus would work in countries with interest rates at zero. This explains why for most countries in the OECD more fiscal stimulus is associated with higher growth.
But Poland and Australia are different. Poland was one of the few other countries where interest rates didn't hit zero. Sweden also performed fairly well, without interest rates hitting zero. Neither countries are in the Euro. All three countries started in much better positions.

Here's a link with more detail as to why these countries did the best.
http://marketmonetarist.com/2012/12/10/sweden-poland-and-australia-should-have-a-look-at-mccallums-mc-rule/

Here's more links about how Australia's monetary policy saved it from the crisis. Note the absense of discussion of fiscal policy. Monetary policy adequately explains it.
http://marketmonetarist.com/2012/11/19/the-export-price-norm-saved-australia-from-the-great-recession/
http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2011/02/24/australia-does-it-better/

And one for Poland
http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2011/02/27/poland-didn´t-miss-many-beats/

And now you can see Germany's faster recovery:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

Is that not sufficient enough? Is there anything left to explain? Not only does the theory back my argument up, but your simplistic assertion that countries with bigger fiscal stimulus grew faster is easily explained away by looking at the evidence. Again, correlation does not imply causation.