Diver Dan,

I largely agree with what you wrote and in retrospect I think I should have added a rider to my piece on Egypt.

There is no question that the reforms enacted in the last years of Mubarrak’s rule have re-energised the once stagnant Egyptian economy. Per capita national income in Egypt has been growing.

However nearly all the benefits have accrued to a relatively small elite. The bulk of people have been getting poorer.

This, BTW, is also true in the USA. In the 1970s the top 1% of earners earned 10-12% of total income. Today the top 1% in the USA take 24%!

Here’s the thing. And I think it’s worth a piece on its own. In fact I may write one.

It is possible for AVERAGE income to rise while MEDIAN income falls. In other words, while average income goes up, 50% or more of the population may be getting poorer. This is what has happened in the USA in the past decade and also seems to be happening in Egypt.

By focusing on AVERAGES as opposed to MEDIANS we get a warped picture of the welfare of societies.

However the fact remains that Egypt is in a precarious position. Not a hopeless one. Not one from which they cannot recover. But one that will require a great deal of effort to put right. If they don’t they really will be in the same position as Yemen a decade or so from now.

Whether you think they will dig themselves out of the hole they’re in depends on your view of the future direction of Egyptian politics.

Some people believe in an “Arab spring.”

Perhaps.

Perhaps not.

I am agnostic but admit to being pessimistic.

Full disclosure:

I know some Israel supporters fear an “Arab spring.” I dissent from that point of view. To my mind a prosperous Egypt is one of the best things that could happen to Israel.

So please don't bombard me with comments about Israel. This piece is NOT about Israel.

Dear Stephen,

Failure to mention that Turkey, a country discussed in your article, has a population growth well below Australia's was a touch disingenuous I think. Perhaps a more complete discussion on why the difference when compared to countries like Egypt would be helpful.

And I see Israel only gets a mention in passing. A country, with a barely lower population growth than Egypt, that through population and water pressures is forced to house a sizeable proportion of its population (most of them heavy breeders) in another State and to help itself to that State's aquifers.

I heartily agree however that education needs to be a priority in countries like Egypt and Syria to drive economic reform that will allow them to pay for the food required to sustain their populations.

When discussing global population growth and global food stocks, does anyone agree that the conversion of one of the USA's main cereal crops -corn- to fuel for automobiles has to rank as one of the most absurd practices currently on display in the world today?

"does anyone agree that the conversion of one of the USA's main cereal crops -corn- to fuel for automobiles has to rank as one of the most absurd practices currently on display in the world today?"

Not really, Halduell, because energy is energy. No matter how you use
it in the end, the two prices are closely interrelated and governed
by supply and demand.

Now if you banned converting corn to ethanol to try to hold down
prices, more oil would be burned, which would increase prices for
oil. Given that oil is a large part of the cost of production of
food, farmers would grow less crops in response to higher costs
and your artificially held down price of corn.

So you would be shooting yourself in the foot so to speak.

Feeding all that corn to the starving masses, who without birth
control simply breed more starving masses, is not really a sensible
idea either.

As Yabby has noted Steven;why are you picking on Muslim countries? India,China and even the USA could also be included in such an argument.Does this on some way justify the illegal invasions of Iraq,Libya,Afghanistan and Pakistan?

Csteele

Rightly or wrongly I’ve never thought of Turkey as a Middle-Eastern country. That’s why I never mentioned it.

Turkey is in a completely different class to any Arab Middle-Eastern country both politically and economically.

Spindoc,

Re your comments on mal-administration.

See my post of Thursday, 5 May 2011 12:46:04 PM immediately below yours.

It was never my intention to say that Egypt’s position was beyond salvation. But I stand by what I said in the sense that if it continues on its present course there will be a train smash and it will resemble Yemen.

Egypt urgently needs to attract investment and for that the minimal prerequisites are an improvement in its business culture and improving the education of its labour force. Is that going to happen?

Maybe. But why hasn't it happened yet?

Yabby,

Re your response to halduell's post.

It’s not that simple. It depends on the relative price elasticities. It is possible that a relatively small shortfall in food can have a greater impact on food prices than the same shortfall has on oil prices. This wouldn’t be noticeable in any one season because crops and prices are volatile but would show itself over the course of time.

But the main argument against subsidising ethanol is that the net gain in energy appears to be very slight. In energy terms it seems to take almost a MJ of oil to produce a MJ of ethanol from corn.

Ask yourself why the process would need subsidies if it really were economically viable