All very valid points Steven. But the rising population is a global
issue which we are ignoring. The world has added a billion people
in the last 12 years. Meantime some expert on the radio just
yesterday, says that Australia cut all funding of family planning
programmes in the third world in the late 90s, for political
reasons. I can only assume that lobbying by the Catholics
Sen Harradine etc, was highly successfull.

So even we are ignoring the elephant in the global room.

All very sad really, but I guess humans need pain to learn the
hard way. So that is what it will be

An excellent article. I knew some of these details but this puts it all in context.
The bottom line - the Middle East countries need to modernise their economies and make themselves attractive to investment.
And Australia needs to keep producing a lot of food to help prevent prices from rising too high, otherwise a lot of people in the Middle East will starve.

Hi Yabby

I agree that population, food and water are all global issues. However they appear to be coming to a head rather rapidly in what happens to be a rather volatile region.

given the state of the world, what can be done, practically, about rising population?

developing countries are not interested in birth control as they are busily adding up the money coming from future tax payers

most religions (all?) don't have any limits on birth, in fact, some encourage folks to go hard at the reproduction thing

so short of nothing happening to reduce population, till we reach some sort of tipping point (I hate that too) is there anything that can be done?

the useless UN seem to be the biggest hope, but are probably the biggest hindrance, since it is so political

Steven Meyer:

...“Since the turn of the new millennium, The pace of structural reforms, including fiscal, monetary policies, privatization and new business legislations, helped Egypt to move towards a more market-oriented economy and prompted increased foreign investment. The reforms and policies have strengthened macroeconomic annual growth results which averaged 5% annually but the government largely failed to equitably share the wealth and the benefits of growth have failed to trickle down to improve economic conditions for the broader population, especially with the growing problem of unemployment and underemployment among youth under the age of 30 years”

...The above is pasted from Wikipedia; where the article goes on to quote a growth rate of 2% pa as a consequence of the political upheaval this year. Interestingly, Australia has a projected growth rate of barely 3%pa this year with political stability.

...Are you sure you are on the right track in your article? I for one have heard all your quotes before, and correct they may be in part, but do not seem to me to reflect the total picture for Egypt. More reflecting is the consequence of graft and corruption destroying the fabric of life for the average Egyptian, would you not agree?

Steven, I can’t agree with the supporting comments so far or with your overall conclusions. This is a very thin assessment and too readily draws to the conclusions that ME issues revolve around water, food and population. They always will of course but these are symptoms and not causes.

The prime causes of anything and everything in the nations to which you refer are mal-administration. There are many examples of this you have failed to address at all.

Let’s take Egypt for example. The construction of the Aswan Dam in the 1950’s changed forever the rejuvenation of the Nile by the annual flood. The productive land has diminished ever since and many food producers are forced to use fertilizers on ever shrinking land. The western banks are now being inundated by sand from the Sahara, it pours over former arable land in enormous waves. On the eastern shore the canal running parallel to the Nile from the old city of Thebes to Cairo is blocked, no longer navigable and so low that irrigation is now done by pumping water up to the irrigation gates.

North of Cairo the delta remains fertile and productive however, the region and its produce are largely boycotted because it is seen as Christianic. The only contact between regional peoples seems to be the Muslims spitting on the Christians in the Souks and streets. The splendid news suburbs north of Cairo are modern brick and tile homes, sadly there are very few occupants but as of July last year, they were still building. Power demand for this area is being provided by a new power station funded by loans from the EU.

There is nothing I saw on my last tour to indicate other than mal-administration as a prime cause.

I can agree that changes at the top are unlikely to bring much change, certainly in the short to medium term. Like a whole list of failed states in that neighborhood, rapid change could only happen if the West does for them what it does at home with failed companies, put them under receivership.

Diver Dan,

I largely agree with what you wrote and in retrospect I think I should have added a rider to my piece on Egypt.

There is no question that the reforms enacted in the last years of Mubarrak’s rule have re-energised the once stagnant Egyptian economy. Per capita national income in Egypt has been growing.

However nearly all the benefits have accrued to a relatively small elite. The bulk of people have been getting poorer.

This, BTW, is also true in the USA. In the 1970s the top 1% of earners earned 10-12% of total income. Today the top 1% in the USA take 24%!

Here’s the thing. And I think it’s worth a piece on its own. In fact I may write one.

It is possible for AVERAGE income to rise while MEDIAN income falls. In other words, while average income goes up, 50% or more of the population may be getting poorer. This is what has happened in the USA in the past decade and also seems to be happening in Egypt.

By focusing on AVERAGES as opposed to MEDIANS we get a warped picture of the welfare of societies.

However the fact remains that Egypt is in a precarious position. Not a hopeless one. Not one from which they cannot recover. But one that will require a great deal of effort to put right. If they don’t they really will be in the same position as Yemen a decade or so from now.

Whether you think they will dig themselves out of the hole they’re in depends on your view of the future direction of Egyptian politics.

Some people believe in an “Arab spring.”

Perhaps.

Perhaps not.

I am agnostic but admit to being pessimistic.

Full disclosure:

I know some Israel supporters fear an “Arab spring.” I dissent from that point of view. To my mind a prosperous Egypt is one of the best things that could happen to Israel.

So please don't bombard me with comments about Israel. This piece is NOT about Israel.

Dear Stephen,

Failure to mention that Turkey, a country discussed in your article, has a population growth well below Australia's was a touch disingenuous I think. Perhaps a more complete discussion on why the difference when compared to countries like Egypt would be helpful.

And I see Israel only gets a mention in passing. A country, with a barely lower population growth than Egypt, that through population and water pressures is forced to house a sizeable proportion of its population (most of them heavy breeders) in another State and to help itself to that State's aquifers.

I heartily agree however that education needs to be a priority in countries like Egypt and Syria to drive economic reform that will allow them to pay for the food required to sustain their populations.

When discussing global population growth and global food stocks, does anyone agree that the conversion of one of the USA's main cereal crops -corn- to fuel for automobiles has to rank as one of the most absurd practices currently on display in the world today?

"does anyone agree that the conversion of one of the USA's main cereal crops -corn- to fuel for automobiles has to rank as one of the most absurd practices currently on display in the world today?"

Not really, Halduell, because energy is energy. No matter how you use
it in the end, the two prices are closely interrelated and governed
by supply and demand.

Now if you banned converting corn to ethanol to try to hold down
prices, more oil would be burned, which would increase prices for
oil. Given that oil is a large part of the cost of production of
food, farmers would grow less crops in response to higher costs
and your artificially held down price of corn.

So you would be shooting yourself in the foot so to speak.

Feeding all that corn to the starving masses, who without birth
control simply breed more starving masses, is not really a sensible
idea either.

As Yabby has noted Steven;why are you picking on Muslim countries? India,China and even the USA could also be included in such an argument.Does this on some way justify the illegal invasions of Iraq,Libya,Afghanistan and Pakistan?

Csteele

Rightly or wrongly I’ve never thought of Turkey as a Middle-Eastern country. That’s why I never mentioned it.

Turkey is in a completely different class to any Arab Middle-Eastern country both politically and economically.

Spindoc,

Re your comments on mal-administration.

See my post of Thursday, 5 May 2011 12:46:04 PM immediately below yours.

It was never my intention to say that Egypt’s position was beyond salvation. But I stand by what I said in the sense that if it continues on its present course there will be a train smash and it will resemble Yemen.

Egypt urgently needs to attract investment and for that the minimal prerequisites are an improvement in its business culture and improving the education of its labour force. Is that going to happen?

Maybe. But why hasn't it happened yet?

Yabby,

Re your response to halduell's post.

It’s not that simple. It depends on the relative price elasticities. It is possible that a relatively small shortfall in food can have a greater impact on food prices than the same shortfall has on oil prices. This wouldn’t be noticeable in any one season because crops and prices are volatile but would show itself over the course of time.

But the main argument against subsidising ethanol is that the net gain in energy appears to be very slight. In energy terms it seems to take almost a MJ of oil to produce a MJ of ethanol from corn.

Ask yourself why the process would need subsidies if it really were economically viable

ARJAY <Does this in some way justify the illegal invasions of Iraq,libya, Afghanistan and Pakistan>

Re:Iraq. You fail to mention the illegal invasion by Iraq into Kuwait, where they raped and looted at will for 3months before America was persuaded by the United Nations and the world to go in and stop the atrocities. America wanted to pursue Suddam Hussein into Iraq and take him out then after the success of Desert Storm. The United Nations supported by the Arab World did not want America to continue the war into Iraq at the time so they imposed transparency sanctions on Suddam that he would allow constant inspection and oversight of his country, so he could not once again become a military threat in the region. He broke this UN sanction when he refused to allow inspectors into his country. America having just been attacked on 9/11 was in no mood for Suddam Hussein to break his war treaty with them.

Re: Libya. The people involved in the uprising in Libya against the brutal regime of Gadaffi, begged the Americans to come in and stop Gadaffi using his planes and tanks on them. The Americans weary from war in Afghanistan and Iraq were reluctant to commit to another war. Never the less they did go in to offer some assistance by bombing Gadaffi’s airforce.

RE: Afghanistan you failed to mention the invasion and extremely cruel rule of the Afghan people by the Pakistanian Taliban. (There are some horrific stories that came to light there too.) After 9/11, the Americans found that Osama Bin Laden had terrorist training camps that were harboured and supported by the Taliban. Apparently Osama didn’t mind the cruel and inhuman rule of the Taliban over the Afghan People even though they too were Moslims. Not Moslim enough for Osama it would seem.
It was only when the Americans came that the Afghan resistance fighters managed to free Afghanistan from the Taliban and drive them back over the border into Pakistan.

There is by no means only one guilty illegal invader involved in these sorry war scenes.

*Ask yourself why the process would need subsidies if it really were economically viable*

Well it probably could survive without them, but if profits are
marginal, people won't invest. The subsidy is actually not high,
around 45c a gallon and with gasoline at 4$ a gallon, its not
a huge part of the final price. But for the industry to become
viable, it also needs economies of scale and that can only come
through volume. So the first step was to get it up and running,
the next step will probably be to change to biomass use, rather
then corn.

The thing is, global food/grain prices were artificially low,
because of huge dumping subidies paid by both the US and EU.
That limited production in places like Australia and many other
countries, because often grain prices were below the cost of
production. Food energy needs to be worthwhile to produce,
just like other energy, or people won't do it.

Even now, grain prices are not expensive. The cost of moving the
product from farm gate to the consumer is far greater,as it goes
through many middlemen. But companies regularly use rising grain
prices as an excuse to bump up their own margins. They seldom
tell you when grain prices are plummeting.

Yabby,

Probably the worst thing that ever happened to the food market was EU subsidies.

The second worst thing was US subsidies.

But all this is another story deserving of a thread on its own.

Dear Stephen,

You certainly mentioned Turkey including its dams on the Euphrates which will directly impact Syria and Jordan both of which featured strongly in your article. Perhaps you meant to say you didn't discuss Turkey as such.

And just as water features strongly in the Palestinian/Israeli conflict there is ample evidence of growing tensions particularly between Turkey and Syria over the same and the threat of conflict is very real.

csteele wrote.

>>Perhaps you meant to say you didn't discuss Turkey as such.>>

Yes, that is what I mean't to say.

But the biggie is Egypt. What Egypt does if the upstream states decide to divert some of the water that feeds the Nile for their own use I really don't know.

To me Egypt still looks on the verge of becoming a failed state. Yes I accept that many of their problems are due to corruption and poor governance; but I don't see those issues being corrected in time, if ever.

My GUESS is that a decade hence most Egyptians will be even poorer and more desperate than they were when the present uprisings began.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/05/world_population_forecasts

Steven, this some predictions about the global population by 2100.
Nigeria at 850 million, Africa to treble, Afghanistan at over 100
million.

The elephant in the room remains birth control and if countries
don't deal with it, it will simply be survival of the fittest.

Australia will no doubt be flooded too, as people like Csteele
take them in as ever more refugees, as the problem keeps growing.

CHERFUL. Why do you not address the extremely oppressive attacks by Israel on the Palistinians.Are they not the chosen people too?

ARJAY<why do you not address the extremely oppressive acts by Israel
On the Palistinians, are they not the chosen people too.

Both sides are just ordinary people locked in a tribal fight over the land.

No country in the world wanted to take the hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees in, after world war two. The British who were in control in Palestine after the war, decided to create a homeland for them in Palestine
Thus creating the bloody territorial fight we are witnessing today.

After the British withdrew,a few of the Arab nations raced over and attacked the Jews in the six day war. So named because the Arabs were defeated in 6days. After Hitlers genocide of the Jews, they were never again going to be unprepared. Even the Jewish women had to do national military training.

I once got called a racist on this forum because I said the Jews were also instrumental in the genocide in Germany because they made no attempt to
To intergrate and live as one with the German people instead they preferred to practise tribal apartheid in the guise of religion. The Germans feared the eventual loss of their country to the Jews. I am not condoning the horrific acts by the Germans, merely dispassionately examining what triggered the atrocity.

With the ever spreading populations of the Jews and Palistinians of course their will be attempted genocide over control of the land, isn’t this happening in many countries where there is conflict in the world already.
Anyway I think we have digressed from the original thrust of this article which is trying to look for solutions to the problems of not enough resources to sustain unrestrained breeding in the middle-east and maybe lessen the disastrous outcomes that will ensue from this in one way or another. Doesn’t look as though it will be solved any time soon

CHERFUL wrote:

>>I once got called a racist on this forum because I said the Jews were also instrumental in the genocide in Germany because they made no attempt to
To intergrate and live as one with the German people instead they preferred to practise tribal apartheid in the guise of religion. The Germans feared the eventual loss of their country to the Jews.>>

--You are aware that in the 1930s Jews made up less than 1% of the population of Germany?

--You are aware that in the 1930s Germans outnumbered Jews by four to one globally?

--You are aware that many of the Jews in Hitler's concentration camps NEVER considered themselves Jewish. Many of them were Christians. They were incarcerated and evenutally killed because they had an ethnically Jewish parent or grandparent?

--You do know that some Wehrmacht soldiers on leave after the invading Poland went back home to find parents or grandparents had been put into concentration camps because THEY had a Jewish parent or grandparent?

--You are aware that in proportion to population there are three times as many Muslims in Australia today as there were Jews in Germany in the 1930s? What do you suggest Australians do?

Stevenlmeyer<you are aware that in the 1930‘s the Jews made up 1% of the German population.>

To understand the German need to take back the entire wealth of their country even though the Jews only numbered 1% you have to also take into account the devastating effects that the Great Depression had on the economy of Germany in the early 1930’s.

After the wall street crash America gave Germany 90days to start to repay money loaned to her to prop Germany up after world War 1. Companies
Throughout Germany--primarily industrial zones in the Ruhr-went bankrupt
And workers were laid off in their millions. By January, 1933, there were
6,100,000workers unemployed in Germany. A huge percentage of these were male and family men. Money was required for food,heating a home, clothes etc. (wikipedia_

An economic war erupted between the Jews and the Germans, there was wide spread violence and hooliganism directed at Jewish Businesses and individuals. Preventing people from entering Jewish shops.

The Jews retaliated by imposing a long-term boycott of German Goods,
In March 1933. The UK Newspaper, Daily Express went so far as to put as a headline “Judea Declares War on Germany”.

The Nuremberg Laws, 1935, banned all Jews from government,municipal and Private employment and also from universities and from working as Doctors etc.

These economic showdowns between the Germans and the Jews were literally about survival, providing food for your family. Not enough of the pie to go round. And of course non-intregration, no blood-line connections.

…….continued
Stevenlmeyer you asked<you are aware that in the 1930’s the Germans outnumbered the Jews four to one?)

The economic hostility between the Germans and the Jews goes back
Many centuries to a time when the Germans ruled much of Austria and the Polish area. The Romans conquered this region and took it off the Germans. The Romans played the Germans and Jews off against each other for economic privileges. One of the Roman overseers wrote down in his reports at the time. (wikipedia) Fights would break out in the towns between the Jews and the Germans and it was never over religion it was always over economics.

As the Germans invaded Austria, Poland Denmark, the Netherland,Belgian,France,they wiped out as many people with any kind of Jewish bloodlink they could find,resulting in the Death and disappearance and displacement of an estimated 6,000,000 Jews. The article also stated that it is believed if a lot of the other ethnic minorities and groups that were targeted as they advanced through countries were counted the figure would stand more around 9million.

Sounds like a high number, but the Japanese massacred 15million Chinese
In the 2years leading up to World War 2. Makes 9million seem small. It
Doesn’t get much attention because they didn’t use gas ovens.

To your last question Stevenlmeyer:-
<you are aware that in proportion to population there are 3 times as many
Muslims in Australia today as there were Jews in Germany in the 1930’s?
What do you suggest Australians do?

I will have to take a stab at answering this tomorrow as it is now 1.30am
And I need to get some sleep. I will say, in the words of Dr Phil, “You can’t solve a problem if you don’t acknowledge or accept there is a problem.” That is the first task in solving the problem,getting people to accept truth and reality, instead of idealism or goody two shoes delusions.

Keeping a sustainable population, to ease competition for resources, is one solution that springs to mind. Too tired, good night Steven and all you great On Line Opinioners out there.

CHERFUL

I'm not actually debating you. I don't waste time on hopeless projects.

My prime intention was to put the facts out there for others who might be interested. I shall not respond to any further posts you make on this topic.

STEVENLMEYER

I think you were actually debating, when you posted those facts. You did after all address three questions to me, in a post addressed to me.

I also do not wish to enter hopeless debate with someone who finds it hard to acknowledge and accept the truth of things because it does not fit their idealist view.

Just thought I'd add an update on Egypt's situation from the Asian Times:

The hunger to come in Egypt

May 10, 2011

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ME10Ak01.html

>>Egypt is running out of food, and, more gradually, running out of money with which to buy it. The most populous country in the Arab world shows all the symptoms of national bankruptcy...

[...]

The civil violence we have seen over the past few days foreshadows far worse to come.

The Arab uprisings began against a background of food insecurity, as rising demand from Asia priced the Arab poor out of the grain market ...All the discussion about Egypt's future political model and its prospective relations with Israel will be overshadowed by the country's inability to feed itself.

[...]

The Ministry of Solidarity and Social Justice is already forming "revolutionary committees" to mete out street justice to bakeries, propane dealers and street vendors who "charge more than the price prescribed by law", >>

If this article is accurate Egypt may be a failed state sooner than many think.

This is a response to this article that I received from a friend who is an Egyptian living in Egypt. He invited me to submit this as a response, so here it is in three parts as there is a limit of 350 words imposed by the system .... Part 1:

Hi

Kindly please allow me to take each point and shed some light on it and give you the truth on it as an Egyptian living in Egypt and not from the perspective of a Journalist who lives abroad, and uses google earth to determine the size of Egypt.

Quote "Egypt is not a large rectangular country with a surface area greater than New South Wales. It is a small Y-shaped country that exists mostly along the banks of the Nile and its delta. The effective area of Egypt is roughly half the size of Tasmania." UNQUOTE

Actually this may have been true back in the 70's where the total "effective" area of Egypt was only 5%, now it has changed due to numerous projects in the desert and elsewhere, the total effective area is now more than 20%

QUOTE "However the “upstream” states such as Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia have indicated that they want to take more of the water that flows into the Nile for their own use. This can only worsen Egypt’s situation." UNQUOTE

Again, information is obtained through international media and online, rather than exerting some effort in putting forth the truth of the matter at hand.

The upstream Countries, want to erect certain dams to be able to implement certain industrial projects which have nothing to do with taking more or less water from Egypt's share, and this misunderstanding was clarified and it is readily available now online for truth seekers.

QUOTE "I do not think there is any doubt that food prices are headed upwards. How will Egypt finance ever growing food imports? It used to be an oil exporter but is now a net importer of oil. It does have some LNG exports but these have been flat for some time." UNQUOTE

part 2.

Both pieces of info are grossly inaccurate and indicate someone who is not thorough in his research, first off, Egypt still Export both Oil and Natural Gas, yet Oil exports are dwindling, but Natural gas is being exported to Israel, Jordan and Syria. Now the new (however well known discovery) is Gold, there is enough reserve of Gold in Egypt to surpass the combined revenue of the Suez Canal as well as the Oil, the first export deal for Gold (10 tons) was executed 2 weeks ago.

QUOTE "To understand the magnitude of Egypt’s failure look at geography. It is almost next door to the EU, one of the richest markets in the world. Europe sources many of its imports from Asia, notably from China but also from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and many others.
But it sources little from Egypt on its doorstep.
Why not? Egypt has a large unemployed and under-employed and young labour force. Why aren’t factories springing up to supply the European market?" UNQUOTE

Very True, but why single Egypt out of the rest of the pack, isn't Israel as well as the rest of the Arab World as well as the Eastern Mediterranean Countries including Greece, Cyprus all combined are also at the footsteps of EU? the clear answer that China has not left room for anyone else in the world to compete in the international trade arena, including a huge Asian Giant called "India" who is just recently started to fight its way into such trade, and this is very obvious since China has a huge population exceeding a Billion and adopt a trading philosophy of Sell..Sell..Sell otherwise they will starve to death.

part 3.
In the past 10 years I visited China more than 12 times at least on business, and I have seen how they need to sell to make money to be able to simply eat, such dire need does not exist in Egypt. And one can simply ask why isn't any other Country outside the roam of Asia is able to supply the EU? why didn't the Author bring up the whole South American Continent? yet Egypt export to Europe Fresh Fruits and produce, Cement, Ceramic Tiles, Carpets, Furniture, Marble... (all easily verifiable online by the way).

QUOTE "If Egypt had an industrial base it would be able to trade goods for food. As it is I do not see how Egypt can either increase food production or finance rising food imports fast enough.
Egypt looks like a train smash waiting to happen." UNQUOTE

Egypt has a small industrial base, yet it does not to trade that for goods, in fact Egypt export more than 300,000 metric tons of Rice every year to Syria alone..
Egypt also export Onions, Potatoes, and fresh Fruits to the Gulf Countries as well as Lebanon, and the EU...It does not look to me like a Country scrambling to put food on the table for its citizens.
In fact how can anyone look at Egypt's economy growth rate ( one of the highest in the region for 6 years in a row according to UNISEF ) And arrive at the conclusion that it is like a train smash waiting to happen... I'd have to totally disagree and to also question the resources from which the Author pulls all this information.
It is an absolute shame that such an image is projected about a Country which is totally unfounded and unfair.

Feel free to send this reply to the Author only if you feel like it.

Mahmoud

Deadly

I would have been more impressed with your friend if he had cited sources for his claims. Simply because he live there does not make him an expert on the Egyptian economy any more than living in Australia makes you an expert on the Aussie economy.

Let me deal with the question of oil first. In researching my piece one of my sources was the US Dept. of Energy. Here is a quote from their Country Analysis for Egypt as at February 2011.

>>Hydrocarbons play a sizeable role in Egypt’s economy both from oil and natural gas production and also in terms of revenues from the Suez Canal, an important transit point for oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf. Total oil production, however, has declined since the country’s 1996 peak of close to 935,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) to current levels of about 660,000 bbl/d. Egypt’s consumption is slightly higher than production and THE COUNTRY HAS BEGUN TO RELY ON A SMALL VOLUME OF IMPORTS TO MEET DOMESTIC DEMAND. Egypt also has the largest oil refining sector in Africa and since refining capacity now exceeds domestic demand, some non-Egyptian crudes are currently imported for processing and re-export.>>

(Captalisation added)

In other words Egypt is now a net importer of oil as I stated in the article.

Note that decline in production of around a third in the past decade and a half.

As I also stated Egypt is a net exporter of LNG.

It’s getting late and so I’ll respond in more detail when I have time. But your friend is not off to a very impressive start, is he?

And here is a link:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Egypt/pdf.pdf

If the US Dept of Energy is wrong perhaps your friend would like to point me to a better source?