Btw Cameron (leckos?), do you go by the tag 'oil_investor' on the Bakkenoil blog?

No bonmot, I am not oil_investor. I have no investments in any energy companies (other than what my super fund might invest in). My preferred investment option is to pay down debt as quickly as possible as in my view we are about to enter a deflationary spiral that will see major falls in stocks, bonds and real estate.

Lekos,
I would agree with the estimates that the Brakken oil fields will not last long for the US.

Its consumption of oil is too high for their lifestyle to be sustainable.

US consumption of oil is 20,680,000 bbl/day, and the next closest country is China at 7,578,000 bbl/day.

Noted also that the average life expectancy in the US is 78.3 years, while the average life expectancy in China is 73 years, or only 6.7 % difference.

I would disagree with you that catabolic collapse will occur over a number of centuries. I think it will occur much more quickly.

Or, too avoid a sudden collapse, there will have to be very careful planning, and big thoughts about how society should be living.

That is something our country is not very good at, or we may have lost the skills at thinking about how we want to live.

Interesting that there are still some societies that have basically remained the same for many 1000’s of years, and in one instance, a society of people have lived the same lifestyle on an island for an estimated 50,000 years.

http://www.survivalinternational.org/

Having read a little about these societies, they appear to be religious, non-feminist, consume very little, and import almost nothing (or are self sufficient).

Or, basicaly the extact opposite to how we currently live in Australia.

vanna, when are you moving?

What's the life expectancy in these wonderful places?

Do they do without western medicines or handouts?

I doubt it.

Why do you say folks here are not happy? Is it the guilt thing again? We're using too much, we're going to be punished for enjoying ourselves and using the bounty of the earth?

That's not my outlook or experience, we live in a golden age of technology and resources, it is just a joy to be alive and to be a kid in today's world!

Awesome .. or as they really say, osom.

Vanna, the end state of catabolic collapse will likely be a few centuries in the future. There will however be many intervening periods where the decline will be rapid, followed by periods of relative stability. I happen to think the first part
of decline, that is for the next decade or so will be the deepest and most traumatic. Mainly due to the extreme levels of inter dependencies of our current situation.

bonmot,

"...yes, there are fools here..."

I take it you don't suffer them gladly.

Several of us "fools" questioned the chance of Fukushima turning dire. You put up a link informing us that we were overreacting (pun intended) - that all would be well as long as the fuel was contained....

Seems to be a few "cracks" in that attitude, as has been borne out by events in Japan.

Perhaps the "fools" are the ones that built and operated a nuclear facility on a major fault line near the ocean in a country prone to tsunamis.

Amicus,

Check out the decline of the Roman Empire - gradual societal disintegration over a period of centuries.....avarus and perniciosus.