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The Forum > Article Comments > The coming liquid fuel crisis > Comments

The coming liquid fuel crisis : Comments

By Jenny Goldie, published 2/11/2010

Lack of oil will be a problem within two to five years, but there are solutions according to a Washington DC conference.

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Melbourne Cup End of the World Race Call:

...and they're off, it's Peak Oil in front by a bowser, followed by Global Warming, Dying Fauna and Anti-Population... here they come around the straight ... and Dying Fauna, Dead Polar Bears and Too Many Immigrants are making a charge on the inside with Illogical Greenies and Forced Sterilisation using the whip but it's Too Late, Too Late, Too Late coming through the middle pushing We're all Doomed aside - One Thousand Inconsistent Arguments is ahead by a nose of Dying Fauna as we come in to the straight with Global Warming, We're all Doomed, Dead Polar Bears, Peak Oil and Illogical Greenies are neck and neck! But wait, coming up on the outside it's Too Late, Too Late, Too Late ridden by Whiney Voice, it's Too Late, Too Late, Too Late by a whisker!
Posted by Cheryl, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 12:28:02 PM
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Poor old OUG lives in a world inhabited by people who can't think outside the box.
This is a person who actually thinks of the components that comprise the words he is using - and he has a bit 'o fun with them...a bit of creative exposition in a real sense.
No doubt about it - if anyone has the temerity to step outside the circle they are immediately brought to book in the most candid(e) fashion.
Posted by Poirot, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 12:38:57 PM
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Dear Hasbeen

I forgot to update my thumbnail resume. I was in Washington for three population conferences (in my capacity as a member of Sustainable Population Australia) and chose to stay on for the Peak Oil conference (in my capacity as vice-president of ACT Peak Oil). So that should have been in the resume, sorry.

I was at the same conference last year though it was in Denver. It is an annual conference organised by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. The people who speak at these conferences are all either in the oil industry itself - or recently retired from it - or in associated organisations like the guy from the World Bank who deals with aviation. But they all know what they are talking about! And this time there was agreement on the timing of a crisis (2-5 years) and the fact that unconventional oil (tar sands, Arctic, deep sea) will not be able to make up the shortfall after 2012-2015 as conventional oil production declines.

Take it or leave it. That's what the experts are saying.
Posted by popnperish, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 12:41:33 PM
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Um, fellas, it has long been know that the problem with the oil industry is not peak oil but the OPEC nations declining to invest in production faciltiies. I won't get into that now but one of the results may well be very like the results from what the oil peakists think is happening - that is, there will be price increases, maybe price spikes and maybe some dislocation while they ramp up production in alternatives such as from Canadian sands, and the pre-salt rigs (the ocean wells drilling really deep). Production from those areas are comparatively small but can be ramped up.

LPG is certainly an alternative for the likes of taxi and truck fleets, and there are also a handful of trucks in Aus using compressed natural gas.

Will oil become scare enough and pricy enough to bring those other sources serious into play, and will thre be a disruption? The definite answer is maybe. Anyone who thinks they can forecast the oil market, and that includes oil peakists, have serious reality issues and I can't help them.

Just before the big oil price spike of a couple of years ago, none of the experienced oil pundits forecast it. Just before prices collapsed, analysts thought it would double. So if analysts or oil peakists say something will happen, then it might be a good idea to expect the exact opposite.
Posted by Curmudgeon, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 1:05:52 PM
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I believein Peak Oil, but suspect that the Doomsday is some way off. In Brisbane there is something called VIPER (I think) which is an overlay on the city to show what suburbs are most at risk from peak oil.

A townplanner friend and I have a friendly bet. He reckons we won't be driving cars in 10 years time. I reckon we will, and mostly using hydro-carbon products. Once the price of oil gets high enough we'll start using some of our coal reserves to produce synthetic fuels using Fischer Tropsch, or some version thereof.
Posted by GrahamY, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 1:11:14 PM
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UOG: Some basic chemistry might save you many wasted hours and bytes of bandwidth:

http://witcombe.sbc.edu/water/chemistryelectrolysis.html

When hydrogen joins up with oxygen to create water it releases 572kJ of energy. To split it apart again to get hydrogen you need to put in exactly the same amount of energy. When you "burn" the hydrogen as a fuel, guess how much energy you get out... Of course I doubt science will put a stop to magical solutions to our problems.

Curmudgeon, if oil is expensive enough to make alternatives viable, what do you think fuel will be costing us at the bowser? And if it's costing more at the bowser, everything else that relies on it costs more, including food, electricity, and yes, even alternative oil production...
Posted by geoffc, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 1:23:41 PM
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