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The Forum > Article Comments > The coming liquid fuel crisis > Comments

The coming liquid fuel crisis : Comments

By Jenny Goldie, published 2/11/2010

Lack of oil will be a problem within two to five years, but there are solutions according to a Washington DC conference.

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"We're drillin' three miles down in the Gulf of Mexico because of peak oil,"

Huh .. I thought it was because they were no longer allowed drilling permits on the mainland, or in Alaska.

First.... Alaskan reserve figure have just been downgraded by... drum roll.... NINETY PERCENT! It's only a matter of time before the unrealistic and way over the top over optimistic reserve figures quoted all over the shop are found to be lies. Saudi Arabia may have already peaked out, they no longer seem to be able to reach even 10MB/day.

To Australia. We'll be importing 80 to 90% of all our fuels by the middle of 2012. That's of course, assuming the countries we import from will sell it to us, at least in the quantities we currently take for granted. Just two years ago, our biggest supplier was Viet Nam. They now sell us no oil at all, they refine their entire production and keep it at home to fuel their own domestic growth. Same thing happened with Indonesia just three or so years ago...

Buy one of those electric assist bicycle!
Posted by Coorangreeny, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 10:23:18 AM
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Sarnian, the subject of peak oil will always largely fall on deaf ears and yes, I'm sure various World Governments know all about the matter.

In 2005, Dr. Robert Hirsch wrote a peak oil report for the US Department of Energy. When they read through some of the report, they politely told him to shut up and go away. They also told him to do no more work on it.

Since then, several First World Governments have investigated the prospect of peak oil and the findings are dire. And why wouldn't these Governments make known their finding to the general population? Well, we must remember that Governments are anything but ethical. If they were then they'd warn their people (and anyone else who would listen) of the coming catastrophe that will follow PO, but since ethics doesn't enter into the equation, then it's all about the short electoral cycle. If the Gillard Government was to come out and tell us tomorrow that the lifestyle of Australians was about to be decimated within the next 10 years, what would be their chances at re-election be for another term? Same in reverse for the opposition. To admit PO will be a serious problem for which they have no answers, would they be elected in the first place? Of course the answer is no!

Peak oil will get little recognition until physical shortages make their presence felt and rationing is introduced, most like before 2020. The excellent articel linked below makes it all patently clear.....

http://www.drmillslmu.com/peakoil.htm
Posted by Aime, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 10:26:41 AM
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"Jenny, if you look in some service stations you will find they have outlets that can pump the stuff into a tank, something like a petrol tank, in your car, & it will power your car for you."

NO... wrong gas! The stuff for sale in garages today is LIQUID PETROLEUM GAS (LPG), and it comes out of oil fields.

NATURAL GAS is different enough that cars need to be modified to use it, even if they already run on LPG. There are no NatGas pumps ANYWHERE in Australia, an entirely new infrastructure needs to be built to accommodate such a change, and it will cost BILLIONS...
Posted by Coorangreeny, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 10:27:45 AM
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Regarding NatGas vs LPG, I should have also added that NatGas has an energy density of 10MJ/L, whilst LPG has over 25. So it's CLEARLY a much poorer cousin and able to do much less work.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Energy_density.svg
Posted by Coorangreeny, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 10:31:57 AM
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Quote from Debora MacKenzie article in New Scientist (2010):

"Whatever they are denying, denial movements have much in common with one another, not least the use of similar tactics. All set themselves up as courageous underdogs fighting a corrupt elite engaged in a conspiracy to suppress the truth or foist a malicious lie on ordinary people. This conspiracy is usually claimed to be promoting a sinister agenda: the nanny state, takeover of the world economy, government power over individuals, financial gain, atheism.

All denialists see themselves as underdogs fighting a corrupt elite. This common ground tells us a great deal about the underlying causes of denialism. The first thing to note is that denial finds its most fertile ground in areas where the science must be taken on trust. There is no denial of antibiotics, which visibly work. But there is denial of vaccines, which we are merely told will prevent diseases - diseases, moreover, which most of us have never seen, ironically because the vaccines work.

Similarly, global warming, evolution and the link between tobacco and cancer must be taken on trust, usually on the word of scientists, doctors and other technical experts who many non-scientists see as arrogant and alien.

Many people see this as a threat to important aspects of their lives. In Texas last year, a member of a state committee who was trying to get creationism added to school science standards almost said as much when he proclaimed "somebody's got to stand up to experts".

It is this sense of loss of control that really matters. In such situations, many people prefer to reject expert evidence in favour of alternative explanations that promise to hand control back to them, even if those explanations are not supported by evidence.

All denialisms appear to be attempts like this to regain a sense of agency over uncaring nature: blaming autism on vaccines rather than an unknown natural cause, insisting that humans were made by divine plan, rejecting the idea that actions we thought were okay, such as smoking and burning coal, have turned out to be dangerous."

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627606.100-living-in-denial-why-sensible-people-reject-the-truth.html
Posted by Divergence, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 10:35:16 AM
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Jenny Goldie has a BSc. which means she has been trained to think, unlike some of the posters on OLO.

David
Posted by VK3AUU, Tuesday, 2 November 2010 10:44:19 AM
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