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The Forum > Article Comments > NBN: The long toll road to nowhere > Comments

NBN: The long toll road to nowhere : Comments

By Geoff Dickinson, published 27/10/2010

The current history of traffic infrastructure will be the future of the NBN - overestimation, overdesign and in over our heads.

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Yuyutsu:

You miss the point on several counts:

Of course human contact is preferable (I suggested that earlier, if you check back). But it just isn't happening in so many cases, to the point where there are more and more cases of deaths of lonely people being discovered because of the smell of the corpse. Nasty, but that's what's happening. If monitoring can do something to stop that while we wait for your social attitude change solution, I'm in favour of it. Unlike you, however, I'm not in favour of doing nothing... which is basically what you propose.

Note, however, that all this net connection stuff is voluntary. Also, that I was referring more to the medical consultation process being made easier, when at present, many regions simply don't have doctors or don't have enough of them. Older patients can't do the traveling. At least with two-way communications they can be given some care, compared with a Big Fat Zilch at present. This kind of thing is actually already happening -- starting for example, from the provision of easier second opinions etc, so try not to pretend it can't happen -- unless you want to insist it can only be attempted on bandwidth-limited networks. Google a bit and get educated on it.

Or do you prefer people remain totally untreated, as a "natural" process of some kind ?

On the dial-up statistics issue, you miss the plot completely.

You entertain a fancy of a retail boss being proud to have an employee telling customers to go away because they had nothing to sell them. Lovely idea in Wonderland, doesn't cut the ice in the real world.

Unfortunately there's a bigger problem. You fail to note that the reason the customers are going away from dial up is that they are taking up offers of more bandwidth in ADSL and cable. They're not opting out, they're finding they need more than dial up offers!

As dial up decreased by three-quarters, overall customer counts increased by 45%. Not much doubt where the dial-up guys went.
Posted by PeterGM, Wednesday, 3 November 2010 11:44:59 AM
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'where does the usage increase come from ? Another bloody dimension ? '

Old people dying and young people moving out of home and getting the internet in their new premises.

'a bit older'
You just changed my 60yo into a 40 yo. Well done.

'I took up working with PCs at the age of about 40'
So how many other 70yo also did. Did it ever occur to you that the majority of 70Yos haven't had a career in IT?

'anyone over the age of 30'
OK now down to 30!

'Your clichéd view of what it's like to be a bit older is crap. '

How many 20-40 year olds have to continually and painfully explain to their parents the most basic computer skills.

My ex Boss asked me to teach his wife, I had to start at explaining what a mouse is. There is assumed knowledge built on a lifetime of using computers that older people just don't have. My grandmother, an otherwise smart woman, could never do anything but press play on her VCR.

Even most of my friends my age have no idea how to configure a router, how do you expect a 70 year old to do it when he cant even work a mobile phone. Anyway, regardless of the ability or the lack of an upbringing with technology, so many old people are scared of technology and don't want a bar of it.

'That's so hard and impractical ? Get real !'
It's a privacy issue. Old people dont want to have people putting cameras in their home. Sure you can swindle some but they have a right to proper care and privacy.

'you take this as proof that the remainder are "happy". '
Yes. They are happy with the speed for that price point. They could have more speed for more money, yet they have decided what they have is adequate for their needs. Not everyone needs the latest model of everything just because it's new and shiny, some people even have cars with no GPS and read a street directory.
Posted by Houellebecq, Wednesday, 3 November 2010 12:42:38 PM
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User increases come from :

'Old people dying and young people moving out of home and getting the internet in their new premises.'

I don't think numbers are your strong point.

Explain how people that you say don't and can't use the internet actually manage to increase the numbers of people using the internet by simply dying. If they're not using the internet, and then they die, they're still not using the internet (as we know it -- unless you know something.).

Meanwhile, all users of the internet have to start some time. So the grand statement: "if you're not using the internet you won't use it in future" is missing a bit of logic. The unborn are doomed, for a start.

Try to get your logic straight as well as your maths.

"How many 20-40 year olds have to continually and painfully explain to their parents the most basic computer skills."

Indeed and how many 70 year olds have to explain to 20-40 year olds that daily occurrences now were impossible 10 years ago?

Or that just because you need to know about routers today doesn't mean you need to know about them tomorrow? That's what technology has been about: making it easier.

You don't have to wind the handle on the side of your phone anymore, or ask the operator to connect you to long distance. You wouldn't ask a 70 year old a while back to move a cat's whisker over a crystal to hear radio etc. So what ? So we can do things better for everyone.

"Anyway, regardless of the ability or the lack of an upbringing with technology, so many old people are scared of technology and don't want a bar of it."

Quite true. So we don't ask them to configure routers. Nor do we have to. We gave them buttons to push on their phones, and light switches instead of kerosene lamps. And just because it's been so hard for you doesn't mean it has to be hard for everyone forever. We make it easier, and get more usage for everyone. Simple.
Posted by PeterGM, Wednesday, 3 November 2010 3:09:59 PM
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'Explain how people that you say don't and can't use the internet actually manage to increase the numbers of people using the internet by simply dying. '

Well gramps, they vacate their premises, and the kids go from using their parents connection to installing a new connection at their new home.

Previously:

2 households. 1 single old person - no internet + 1 family of 4 - 1 dial-up connection

Old person dies:

2 Households. 1 young person, with ADSL2 + 1 family of 3 - 1 dial-up connection and 1 wireless connection because little Johnny wants to watch porn in private like his brother and his parents will still only pay for dialup no matter how much he's been trying to sell them ADSL.

So 1 dial-up connection turns into 1 ADSL, 1 Wireless and 1 dial-up.

'The unborn are doomed, for a start.'
That's just dumb, I said only people 60+ will never bother to use the internet. If you get past your emotional chip on your shoulder about your age and actually listened you could save yourself some time.

'Or that just because you need to know about routers today doesn't mean you need to know about them tomorrow? '
Yeah you do, if you cant afford for someone to wire up your home. They don't want to pay for ADSL at $50 a month because THEY DONT NEED THE BANDWIDTH. Now you think they're gonna pay hundreds for someone to hook their house up and pay $60 a month? Dreamin!

It's a simple fact: It is wasteful to give people a service for free that they wont even use. It is wasteful to dig up copper wire that works perfectly fine for the requirements of grandpa reading emails and force upon him a $60 a month charge for a porn machine he's not interested in. Maybe they should give a free couple of viagra with each NBN plan. Make proper use of the investment.
Posted by Houellebecq, Wednesday, 3 November 2010 4:13:37 PM
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"deaths of lonely people being discovered because of the smell of the corpse... If monitoring can do something to stop that"

Indeed, to avoid the smell, perhaps even save on carpet cleaning, maybe even get a few more weeks of rent out of the house.

Do you know how much network-volume that takes? ONE BIT!
An alarm, a red light: if the problem-detection logic is placed at the elderly's home. This also implies a higher level of privacy, because as long as everything's alright, nobody can spy on the elderly.

"Note, however, that all this net connection stuff is voluntary"

Right now, the government is still considering its options. In any case, it intends to take away the copper-based home-phone connection, so if one is happy to remain without a phone, then PERHAPS it will be allowed.

"I was referring more to the medical consultation process being made easier, when at present, many regions simply don't have doctors or don't have enough of them. Older patients can't do the traveling."

Then give those people a suitable network. IF indeed copper/ADSL is insufficient, then give them something else (NBN does not plan to provide fibre-optic in remote areas anyway). The regional problem should be fixed, but why should the 93% in the cities who already have ADSL (or ADSL2) suffer as well?

Re Dial-up: People are forced to upgrade to ADSL because the web-pages have grown in size due to various embedded nonsense that is unrelated to the information they seek. Had ADSL not been around, then the same web-pages would have remained small and dial-up was sufficient. Fibre-optic will cause web-pages to grow even further, so simple people who only want a bit of text information will either wait longer for it or be forced to purchase a high-bandwidth service to get the same.

"You entertain a fancy of a retail boss being proud to have an employee telling customers to go away because they had nothing to sell them"

Wrong: I described a courageous retail-employee that is willing to pay with his/her head for telling the truth to customers.
Posted by Yuyutsu, Wednesday, 3 November 2010 6:57:05 PM
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Houellebecq:

You do not appear to understand the importance of checking your facts before you espouse grand arguments.

It's simply a silly and prejudice-based myth that older people don't and can't use the internet.

You propagate this myth, and when I challenge your assumptions, you accuse me of having a chip on my shoulder? It's a pot-and-kettle defense.

If you bothered to check, you could and should have found out by now that we know that a significant proportion of 60+ year olds already have internet connections and use them, albeit at lower rates than some age groups. Why can I find this information when you can't?

We know that in Australia as long ago as 2007:

+ 42% of those aged 65 to 75 had internet connections,
+ 22% of those aged over 75 had connections, and
+ 64% of the age group 55-64 were connected.

We also know that 78% of 45-54 year olds had a connection 3 years ago, many of whom will be in the 60+ bracket within 2 to 3 years.

Are these people taking up knitting as as a net substitute as soon as they hit 60?

Try applying those old connection figures to your increase by death scenario. I'll help you: there are currently 120,000 deaths per annum for 60+. Tell us how well they these figures line up with a 360,000 annual increase in the last year's household connections.

Do allow for things like:
+ partners who don't die at the same time
+ children who don't want the internet
+ children who already have the internet
+ people who don't have children

as well as older householders who have a connection already available.

And try to add things up properly this time, without getting total figures confused with proportions, and prejudice confused with known facts.
Posted by PeterGM, Wednesday, 3 November 2010 10:00:47 PM
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