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Emissions already well short of forecasts : Comments
By Mark S. Lawson, published 8/10/2010There is actually much less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than has been forecast.
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I really would like an answer, as I think it is an important point, ansd it is important to know who these people are, so that we can petition them.
Posted by Bugsy, Wednesday, 27 October 2010 12:01:03 PM
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Ok, back to the topic.
Mark, I’m not sure whether your pronouncements are made with duplicitous intent, or that you in fact really don’t understand the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (I suspect a bit of both). Fact-check, each storyline (and the 40 or so scenarios) assumes a distinctly different direction for future developments, such that the storylines differ in increasingly irreversible ways. Together they describe divergent futures that encompass a significant portion of the underlying uncertainties in the main driving forces. They cover a wide range of characteristics such as population growth, economic development, and technological change. For this reason, their plausibility should not be considered solely on the basis of an extrapolation of ‘current’ economic, technological, and social trends. Of this I am convinced, you exhibit what appears to be an inherent failure (for whatever reason) to understand the uncertainties expressed and acknowledged by the IPCC when it commissioned the SRES. It is obvious that when a MSM writer puts his own ‘take’ or interpretation on the short term trends, there is a very good chance that they are flawed (at best) or obscure what the SRES was intended to be used for in the first place, at worst. Sure, the document does need revisiting, however the SRES was never meant to be taken out of the context in which it was to be used. For example, you don’t seem to understand that uncertainties may be different in different applications - climate modelling; assessment of impacts, vulnerability, mitigation, and adaptation options; or policy analysis. It would be a stupid and unwise move to throw the baby out with the bathwater based on unsound premises. You seem quite readily prepared to do that. Posted by bonmot, Wednesday, 27 October 2010 12:51:18 PM
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It looks like Mark has gone missing in action.
The following paper pre-empts Mark Lawson’s latest OLO articles/comments and his again(?) to be released book, by 2 years. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS22970.pdf There are others. Mark, (if you happen to check back in) this might interest you: http://cbe.anu.edu.au/research/papers/pdf/wp526.pdf As you say, “leave it with you”. Posted by bonmot, Friday, 29 October 2010 5:41:20 PM
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