You would have to say that the next election is wide open. The government made the right moves over the GFC but then failed to execute the plan effectively, well disaster really. The PM has completely failed to shine as a leader and comes across as the seasoned bureaucrat that he is, Boring and unclear.
On the other hand the opposition are still trying to convince us that they can yell and object their way into government without policy. A brash narcissist is hardly the best alternative leader for the country.
The economy will matter at the election as it always does, but we seem to forget that this country is in the strong position it is due to the good economic decisions of successive governments stretching way back. This government has done no wrong in this area and is leading in the tough move to the super tax.(the mining industry suggested in a submission to the henry review a reform of royalties, not what they meant?)
In the end we normally give a government two terms to get it together, one of the advantages of three year terms, so i imagine Rudd will get one more chance. If he doesn't start performing don't expect him to be there long though as Julia will be itching to be our first Female PM.

Sigh- it's sad watching Australians agonizing SO much over two lousy candidates, when they could have been spending the time looking for someone ELSE.

I think there's a problem with Australia that goes WAY beyond Rudd or Abbot (although there is no question that these two are direct results of this problem.

Short answer, if YOU don't like the "two" choices- try looking at your local independents and minors- they HAVE websites- with policies, and you'll only have to read them once- or, at very most, once every three YEARS.

Seriously, how much WORSE is the alternative of the two compared to each other? No really, give me some examples!

I wonder if Julia very surrepticiously set Kev up for his big fall. It would not be hard to do,since Kev the narcissist would believe anything that pandered to his ego.Perhaps that smirk on Julia's face hides a lot more mongrel and ambition than Kev could muster in a life time of mirror gazing.

So what's the plan? If Julia puts Kev out of our misery early,will this strengthen Labor's chances? I don't think that Labor can afford to go to the polls with a lame duck PM.Abbott does have weaknesses particularily on the economic front.He seems flaky and unsure.With Cassius Turnbull on the prowl again and things are looking interesting.Is it a lean and hungry look Graham?

What's the bet Graham? I think Labor are done unless Julia can portray an Abbott as a mad monk.

I just can’t pick this one Graham; one of my main concerns is the apparent thrashing between one policy and the next. I also get very concerned when the government starts yanking the fiscal levers rather than tweaking them. Everything smacks of knee jerk with little explanation offered to the electorate.

It often seems that the PM makes one of his policy announcements and then leaves Swan, Tanner, Gillard et al to explain them.

If as your polling suggests, the opposition has three contenders with Hockey, and Turnbull ahead of Abbott as preferred leader, then perhaps the electorate does see some depth and experience in the opposition.

If the Liberals can effectively explain their “budget in reply” position and support that with hard numbers, it may be possible to consolidate or even improve on current polling.

That will leave the PM with having to find the proverbial “rabbit” to pull out of the hat. It could come in the form of a double dip GFC during the run up to the election? It could come from a major international CPRS initiative which would provide the opportunity for reintroducing our ETS to the election manifesto? It could also come from a “resolution” to the mining tax conflict, especially if it looks like a win / win.

I’m not sure at this stage if Abbott needs a rabbit, but I think Rudd does.

I think it is labor voters who want to see Turnbull as liberal leader.

He is so like Rudd that those labor lot that are silly enough to still like Rudd, also like Turnbull.

The other, smarter labor lot realise he is as hopeless as Rudd, & would love to see him back leading the opposition. They know he'd knock 15% to 20% off the liberal vote.

I don't see much to like about the leadership of either labor, or liberal, but I'm damn sure that the only one of them who could be worse than Rudd, is Turnbull. Throw greenie Brown in there, & you have a fairy tale. You know the one, it's about the Three Blind Mice. Even the tea lady would be a considerable improvement on that bunch.

Half a mo, what was the name of that school tuckshop manager? Is she available?

Rudd has always had his interests in front of the party's. He has always put his face at the head of any new initiative, and has gone for these "revolutionary" changes.

Good government mostly means doing the same things but more efficiently and better. These grandiose gestures mean big change which nearly everyone resists, so when they are compromised beyond recognition, as they were doomed to do so, then one is left with a mess and an image of gross incompetence.

As the face of labor, Rudd is also their Achilles heel, by working on his personality the coalition can not only bring him down, but labor too. Gillard is not a viable option so close to the election.

As the bad news from the insulation / school buildings / immigration crises continue to grind out, the news is only going to get worse. Abbott with a new war chest from the mining houses is not about to let this escape the public's attention either.