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The Forum > Article Comments > Are we into hard times? > Comments

Are we into hard times? : Comments

By James Cumes, published 15/3/2010

We have done nothing to reform, regulate or moderate the systems which brought us to the edge of the financial abyss.

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Dr Cumes is in good company in that he describes the financial problem
but in company with many others misses what really triggered off the whole problem.

A few dates;
May 2005 the production of crude oil plus condensates peaks at 75 Mbd.
June 2008 production of crude + condensates + bio liquids peak at 86 Mbd.
Sept 2008 The great financial crash occurs.
2005 to 2014 the plateau of oil production continues.
2014 the predicted date when oil production starts its long decline.

Of the five previous recessions four were preceded by spikes in oil prices.

When the economy cannot increase energy then GDP must also stop
increasing. This means no growth and no extra financial gain to
repay loans and interest.
The high oil prices pushed up food and petrol/ diesel prices and those
with mortgages has to choose if they could afford to pay their
mortgage. Many did not and so the house of financial cards fell.

It is these factors that the media financial commentators miss and
this is because both government and media just ignore anything that
sounds like peak oil.
It explains why some commentators such as Dr Cumes see a problem
with the "recovery" that we are experiencing but they do not seem to understand why.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 15 March 2010 10:24:50 AM
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Money and greed, there have always been Empires. See the TV program on Democracy-Athens.
They are there to grab riches. The present Financial Empire is the USA of America. But due to its immoral population it has 'crashed.'
Now, other Countries are trying to agree to modifications. Does that refer to Capitalism?
GDP is a failed concept now, some regard it as a "Ponzi" scheme because, "IT MUST GROW BIGGER EACH YEAR under present Political and Business expectations.
This calls for more people to feed more Factories etc.
With a Population that has already tripled from 2 billion to 6 billion in 50 years, that is a NO GO area. 6 billion now = 18 billion in another 50 years if nothing is done.
Therefore GDP and expansion along with greed must stop.
Capitalism AMERICAN style is doomed. A new type of Welfare state must arrive where jobs are rotated between paid unemployment and work.
Otherwise riots will ensue. The World is in a GIANT STATE OF FLUX.
China wants more monetary control.
Posted by Sherkahn, Monday, 15 March 2010 11:03:51 AM
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The world has suffered from invest bubbles for centuries. It is in human nature that people will chase "easy money" with the assumption that nothing will change and are surprised when it does.

The point of legislation is not to prevent business, but to ensure that safe practises are followed. However, governments such as Greece are not bound by such strictures.

In spite of all of this, the GFC was no where near as severe as the doomsayers were predicting. Capitalism stumbled but did not fall, the world kept spinning and re learnt yet again a lesson the previous generation learnt before it.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Monday, 15 March 2010 12:14:38 PM
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I would have hoped for something a little more focused and balanced from someone of Cumes stature. To reiterate a few points that have to be repeated every time these these themes are trotted out, booms and busts are a part of the financial system. If you don't like them or don't think they should occur find another planet.
If you hope that the GFC will cause some major change to either the financial system or human nature you will be sorely disappointed.
But past disasters have at least taught as something about what to do when a bust occurs and this time, governments did do soemthing useful to shorten the crisis. Instead of restricting liquidity, as happened in the great crash, they increased it.
Most of the author's references to the depression are therefore irrelevent. The lessons of history were acted on, at least to some extent, and we are now onto a different point altogether.
Now the American banking system, where the problems started, obviously needs reform - not major change, as that is not going to happen - but reform. What reform where? Perhaps the author could tell us.
Posted by Curmudgeon, Monday, 15 March 2010 5:20:24 PM
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Boom and Bust is the way it is when energy has no practical limit.
The market performs as it always has in its feedback loops.
However, limit one of the inputs to the feedback loop and the control
system operates quite differently.
Oil and its energy is now limited. The old boom and bust has ended.

There will be another one, two or three cycles of recovery as oil
prices force a recession and a crash in oil demand pushes prices down
and allows a recovery for a year or two, but each quick recession
will I think be deeper and have a slower recovery until it finally stays down.

Welcome to the Long Emergency !
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 15 March 2010 6:11:49 PM
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Endless growth cannot continue endlessly. One day this harsh realisation will come crashing down on Western societies. In places like Australia the demise of the manufacturing sector and our overwhelming dependence on imports will bring us to the verge of disaster. The US will never recover because they have no domestic economy from which to build that recovery. Australia is, unfortunately, following the US down this road to destruction at an ever increasing pace. Those encouraging this direction have protected their own interests and will never suffer what they burdon the rest of society with. Nor do they care.
The only solution is a move to an independent economy with higher exports than imports - entirely possible given this country's low population, and a move to a sustainable, steady state economic policy.
Posted by Darron C, Tuesday, 16 March 2010 7:40:12 AM
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