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Are we into hard times? : Comments
By James Cumes, published 15/3/2010We have done nothing to reform, regulate or moderate the systems which brought us to the edge of the financial abyss.
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but in company with many others misses what really triggered off the whole problem.
A few dates;
May 2005 the production of crude oil plus condensates peaks at 75 Mbd.
June 2008 production of crude + condensates + bio liquids peak at 86 Mbd.
Sept 2008 The great financial crash occurs.
2005 to 2014 the plateau of oil production continues.
2014 the predicted date when oil production starts its long decline.
Of the five previous recessions four were preceded by spikes in oil prices.
When the economy cannot increase energy then GDP must also stop
increasing. This means no growth and no extra financial gain to
repay loans and interest.
The high oil prices pushed up food and petrol/ diesel prices and those
with mortgages has to choose if they could afford to pay their
mortgage. Many did not and so the house of financial cards fell.
It is these factors that the media financial commentators miss and
this is because both government and media just ignore anything that
sounds like peak oil.
It explains why some commentators such as Dr Cumes see a problem
with the "recovery" that we are experiencing but they do not seem to understand why.